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US-Israel relations: downturn or upturn?

On November 2, 2015, Lt. General (ret.) James Clapper, the Director of the US National Intelligence and former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency stated: “The relations with Israel’s intelligence community is closer and stronger than I can recall [in 30 years]…. At the intelligence level, there has not been much air space between the US and Israel [irrespective of the disagreement on Iran].”

Contrary to the “elite” US media headlines, the November 9, 2015 Obama-Netanyahu summit highlighted the enhanced US-Israel relationship, in general, and the long term US-Israel strategic cooperation, in particular, irrespective of the irreconcilable nature of the personalities and worldviews of the two leaders. In fact, bi-lateral defense, commercial, scientific and technological cooperation has surged to new heights, transcending disagreements over the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel’s borders, construction of Jewish homes in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria, the appointment of controversial officials by both administrations and the Palestinian issue. In fact, such disagreements have been an integral part of the bilateral relationship since Israel’s establishment in 1948.

Contrasting the “elite” US media, the Obama-Netanyahu summit reaffirmed the order of the US national priorities, which – notwithstanding the multitude of White House and Department of State verbal statements – does not consider the Palestinian issue a lead-player in the context of US-Israel relations, Middle East affairs, inter-Arab politics or the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The US Administration does not subordinate primary national and homeland security interests – in face of rising regional and global threats – to disagreement over secondary concerns, such as the Palestinian issue and Jewish construction in Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria.  Moreover, President Obama does not allow the short-term friction over the deal with the Ayatollahs to cloud the long-term, joint US-Israel stance against the surging anti-US Islamic terrorism, the anti-US Arab Tsunami, the tectonic eruptions in Iraq and Syria, and the resulting clear and present danger to critical US interests and the pro-US Arab regimes of Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

As conflicting as are the worldviews and personalities of Obama and Netanyahu, the US will not cut off its nose to spite its face. Thus, Obama does not ignore Israel’s enhanced role as America’s most effective, reliable, democratic and unconditional strategic ally and beachhead in a most critical region, against the backdrop of an increasingly violent, unpredictable, unstable, fragmented, unreliable, intolerant, tenuous and anti-US Arab Street. Israel – the battle-tested, cost-effective laboratory of the US defense industry – extends the strategic hand of the US, enhancing the US power projection, at a time of unprecedented threats to the US national and homeland security.

Furthermore, approaching the 2016 election, President Obama is cognizant of the deeply-rooted affinity toward the Jewish State, expressed by the American people, and therefore by their representatives on Capitol Hill. According to a November 9, 2015 study by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “favorable feelings toward Israel have increased among supporters from both parties in recent years.  Republicans’ favorable views of Israel have increased 12% (65%) since a low point in 1998, and a 57% majority of Democrats also continue to feel favorably toward Israel, up from a low point of 50% in 2002. Gallup surveys concluded in 2014 and 2015 corroborate these trends: seven in ten Americans expressed favorable views of Israel, suggesting that events over the last year [disagreement over the deal with the Ayatollahs] did not affect American support for Israel…. Americans say that among all regions of the world, the Middle East is the most important for US national security….”  

The gathering storms in the Middle East and beyond, the erosion of Europe’s posture of deterrence, the intensely anti-US Arab Street, and Israel’s growing contribution to the national security of the US, suggest that if there were not a Jewish State in the Middle East, the US would have to dramatically expand its military presence in the region. Moreover, if the Jewish State were located in the Persian Gulf, the US would be able to dramatically shrink its military presence there. Israel has been transformed from a national security consumer to a national security producer, and US-Israel relations have evolved from a one way street – to a two way street, mutually beneficial win-win – ties.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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