Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 29, 2024
Iran’s Regime-Change Transcends Economic Sanctions
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 29, 2024
*Driven by a 1,400-year-old fanatical religious vision – which eclipses financial and diplomatic benefits – Iran’s Ayatollahs have surged as the leading epicenter of anti-US Islamic terrorism, such as Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas. In addition, the Ayatollahs have fueled civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, East Africa (Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Sudan) and West Africa (Mauritania). They have subverted and terrorized pro-US Sunni Arab regimes in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bharain, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, etc. Since the early 1980s, Iran’s Ayatollahs have collaborated – along with Hezbollah terrorists – with Latin America drug cartels, terror organizations, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and all anti-US governments. They have established sleeper cells on US soil and have served as a focal point of global drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems.
*The Ayatollahs’ conventional capabilities have made them the lead igniter of regional and global instability, terrorism and wars.
*The 46-year-old US diplomatic option has not moderated Iran’s Ayatollahs, but – unintentionally – has facilitated their transformation from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to the leading anti-US perpetrator of wars and terrorism. Contrary to US policy makers, who consider negotiation (and economic sanctions) as a means to advance reconciliation, the Ayatollahs have viewed negotiation as a means to advance theiranti-US vision of subjugating the “apostate Sunnis” and the “infidel West.”
*President Trump’s maximum pressure economic sanctions managed to cripple the Ayatollahs’ economy and constrain their capabilities of assisting terror entities. However, as expected, President Biden proved them to be reversible and short-term in effectiveness. Moreover, surging unemployment and inflation, a disastrous shrinking of oil exports and a dramatically reduced GDP did not induce the intended policy changes by the Ayatollahs. Moreover, in the long run, the reversible economic sanctions enhanced the strategic posture of the Ayatollahs, who demonstrated their capabilities to overcome Western assaults.
*Economic sanctions are insufficiently effective when imposed on fanatical ideology-driven, apocalyptic regimes, as documented in their constitutions, school curriculum and official media. These regimes are less susceptible to the Western “Money Talks,” adhering to the Middle Eastern “Radical Vision Talks.”
*According to Tufts University’s Prof. Daniel Drezner, “Sanctions can be circumvented through third-party trade, with countries friendly to the sanctioned nation, serving as a substitute for both imports and exports from the countries that are sanctioning. For example, Russia’s trade with the European Union fell by about 5% compared to the 2017-2021 average in the wake of sanctions imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine. However, at the same time, there were spikes in trade between Russia and Armenia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Hong Kong. Those countries also experienced increases in trade with Europe and the U.S….”
*Furthermore, 40 years of economic sanctions have not induced the Ayatollahs to abort their nuclear plan, or to refrain from flexing their highly destabilizing conventional rogue muscles. In fact, economic sanctions have incentivised them to develop creative ways to bypass sanctions, enhancing trade with China, Russia and other countries, which oppose sanctions.
*Iran’s Ayatollahs have evolved into a role model of ruthless, apocalyptic despotism and imperialism, driven by an ideology, which mandates subjugation and degradation of internal and external opponents, such as domestic dissidents, ethnic and religious minorities, women, “apostate” Sunni regimes, the “infidel” West (religiously, culturally and strategically), “The Great American Satan” and “the illegitimate Zionist entity, the vanguard of the US in the Middle East.”
*Contrary to economic sanctions, regime-change is irreversible. It eliminates the threat, and cannot be restored by succeeding Presidents. Moreover, regime-change in Iran would bolster the US’ strategic stature (including in Latin America, the US’ soft underbelly), by removing the Ayatollahs’ machete from the throats of all pro-US Arab regimes, eliminating the chief global destabilizer and core of Islamic terrorism. This would also induce Saudi Arabia and Oman (and possibly Kuwait, Indonesia and additional Moslem countries) to join the Abraham Accords.
*The track record of Iran’s Ayatollahs, the self-destructive nature of the US diplomatic option, and the reversibility of crippling economic sanctions, underscore the fact that the Ayatollahs should not be partners to negotiation, nor a target for maximum pressure economic sanctions, but a target for regime-change. Also, the potential cost of regime-change would be dwarfed by the horrific cost of facing a nuclear Iran.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 21, 2024
1. A bust of Judah the Maccabee is displayed at West Point Military Academy, along with those of Joshua, David, Alexander the Great, Hector, Julius Caesar, King Arthur, Charlemagne and Godfrey of Bouillon – “the Nine Worthies.” In 1777, Chanukah candles were lit during the Valley Forge encampment, the turning point of the Revolutionary War, which solidified the victory of George Washington’s Continental Army over the British monarchy. Benjamin Rush, a signer of the Declaration of Independence and a player in the ratification of the US Constitution, paving the road to the Boston Tea Party, 1773: “What shining examples of patriotism do we behold in Joshua, Samuel, the Maccabees and the illustrious princes and prophets among the Jews…” On December 6, 2013, Ambassador Hank Cooper, a former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, wrote: “We need modern day Maccabees to preserve the heritage of liberty for our posterity….”
2. NBC news, December 13, 2022: “An ancient treasure trove of silver coins dating back 2,200 years, found in a desert cave in Israel, could add crucial new evidence to support a story of Jewish rebellion…. The 15 silver coins were hidden [during] the Maccabean revolt from 167-160 B.C., when Jewish warriors rebelled against the Seleucid [Syrian] Empire….”
3.Chanukah (evening of December 25, 2024–January 2, 2025) is the only Jewish holiday that commemorates an ancient national liberation struggle in the Land of Israel, unlike the national liberation holidays, Passover, Sukkot/Tabernacles and Shavu’ot/Pentecost, which commemorate the liberation from slavery in Egypt to independence in the land of Israel, and unlike Purim, which commemorates liberation from a Persian attempt to annihilate the Jewish people.
4. According to Israel’s Founding Father, David Ben Gurion: Chanukah commemorates “the struggle of the Maccabees, which was one of the most dramatic clashes of civilizations in human history, not merely a political-military struggle against foreign oppression…. Unlike many peoples, the meager Jewish people did not assimilate. The Jewish people prevailed, won, sustained and enhanced their independence and unique civilization…. It was the spirit of the people, rather than the failed spirit of the establishment, which enabled the Hasmoneans to overcome one of the most magnificent spiritual, political and military challenges in Jewish history….” (Uniqueness and Destiny, pp 20-22, David Ben Gurion, IDF Publishing, 1953).
5. Chanukah and the Land of Israel. When ordered by Emperor Antiochus IV Epiphanes of the Seleucid region to end the Jewish “occupation” of Jerusalem, Jaffa, Gaza, Gezer and Akron, Shimon the Maccabee responded: “We have not occupied a foreign land…. We have liberated the land of our forefathers from foreign occupation (Book of Maccabees A: 15:33).”
Chanukah highlights the centrality of the Land of Israel in the formation of Judaism and the Jewish people. The mountain ridges of Judea and Southern Samaria (the West Bank) – the cradle of Jewish history, religion, culture and language – were the platform for the Maccabean military battles: Mitzpah (the burial site of the Prophet Samuel, overlooking Jerusalem), Beit El (the site of the Ark of the Covenant and Judah the Maccabee’s initial headquarters), Beit Horon (Judah’s victory over Seron), Hadashah (Judah’s victory over Nicanor), Beit Zur (Judah’s victory over Lysias), Ma’aleh Levona (Judah’s victory over Apolonius), Adora’yim (a Maccabean fortress), Eleazar (named after Mattityahu’s youngest Maccabee son), Beit Zachariya (Judah’s first defeat), Ba’al Hatzor (where Judah was defeated and killed), Te’qoah, Mikhmash and Gophnah (bases of Shimon and Yonatan), the Judean Desert, etc.
6. Chanukah’s historical context is narrated in the four Books of the Maccabees, The Scroll of Antiochus and The Wars of the Jews.
In 323 BCE, following the death of Alexander the Great (Alexander III) who held Judaism in high esteem, the Greek Empire was split into three independent and rival mini-empires: Greece, Seleucid/Syria and Ptolemaic/Egypt.
In 175 BCE, the Seleucid/Syrian Emperor Antiochus (IV) Epiphanes claimed the Land of Israel. He suspected that the Jews were allies of his Ptolemaic/Egyptian enemy. The Seleucid emperor was known for eccentric behavior, hence his name, Epiphanes, which means “divine manifestation.” He aimed to exterminate Judaism and convert Jews to Hellenism. In 169 BCE, he devastated Jerusalem, attempting to decimate the Jewish population, and outlaw the practice of Judaism.
In 166/7 BCE, a Jewish rebellion was led by the non-establishment Hasmonean (Maccabee) family from the rural town of Modi’in, half-way between Jerusalem and the Mediterranean. The rebellion was headed by Mattityahu, the priest, and his five sons, Yochanan, Judah, Shimon, Yonatan and Eleazar, who fought the Seleucid occupier and restored Jewish independence. The Hasmonean dynasty was replete with external and internal wars and lasted until 37 BCE, when Herod the Great (a proxy of Rome) defeated Antigonus II Mattathias.
The reputation of Jews as superb warriors was reaffirmed by the success of the Maccabees on the battlefield. In fact, they were frequently hired as mercenaries by Egypt, Syria, Carthage, Rome and other global and regional powers.
7.Chanukah celebrates the Maccabean-led national liberation by conducting in-house family education and lighting candles – in a 9-branch-candelabrum – for 8 days in commemoration of the re-inauguration of Jerusalem’s Jewish Temple and its Menorah (candelabrum).
The Hebrew words Chanukah (חנוכה), inauguration (חנוכ) and education ((חנוך possess an identical root.
8. As was prophesized by the Prophet Hagai in 520 BCE, the re-inauguration of the Temple took place on the 25th day of the Jewish month of Kislev, which is the month of miracles, such as the post-flood appearance of Noah’s rainbow, the completion of the construction of the Holy Ark by Moses, the laying of the foundations of the Second Temple by Nehemiah, etc.
The 25th Hebrew word in Genesis is “light,” and the 25th stop during the Exodus was Hashmona (the same Hebrew spelling as Hasmonean-Maccabees).
9. Chanukah highlights the defeat of darkness, disbelief, forgetfulness and pessimism, and the victory of light, faith, commemoration, defiance of odds, can-do mentality and optimism. The first day of Chanukah is celebrated when daylight hours are equal to darkness hours – and when moonlight is hardly noticed – ushering in brighter days.
President Trump – Beware of HTS and the Moslem Brotherhood
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiatives”
December 16, 2024
*The success of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorists to topple the Assad regime is traumatizing all pro-US Arab regimes, which, for decades, have had the machetes of Iran’s Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats.
*Contrary to some Western policy makers, journalists and academics, the pro-US Arab leaders do not take HTS’ moderate statements at face value. They are aware of the fanatic, religious vision, which has guided the HTS, and are familiar with the Middle Eastern gap between the talk and the walk, and with the Islamic tactic of Taqiyya (dissimulation). Taqiyya was also employed by Bashar Assad upon assuming power in 2000, when his moderate talk led US legislators (e.g., Senator John Kerry), Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and NYT’s Tom Friedman to view him as a potentially peaceful leader. It was used by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978/79, ahead of assuming power in Iran, convincing President Carter and the State Department that he would be “an Iranian edition of Ghandi…. preoccupied with tractors, not tanks.” The Houthis issued moderate pronouncements that led to their delisting from the list of terror organizations in 2021 by President Biden. Also, Arafat issued peaceful statements upon concluding the Oslo Accord, which won him the Nobel Prize for Peace, and led Tom Friedman to wonder: “Who’s Arafat? Is he Nelson Mandela or Willie Nelson?”). Etc.
*The vision of the HTS is not limited to Syria. It aims to topple all national Islamic regimes, and establish a universal Islamic entity, as prescribed by the precepts of the Moslem Brotherhood, which has pursued its goals through politics, education, social welfare and affiliates, splinters and offshoots that engage in terrorism.
*The initial strategy of HTS, as suggested by their name (al-Sham = the Levant) is to “liberate” the Levant, which was “Greater Syria” (Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus and Turkey’s Hatay province), then the entire Middle East, the “Abode of Islam,” and finally the “Abode of the Infidel,” preferably via peaceful means, or militarily, if resisted by the “infidel.”
*The Moslem Brotherhood is inspired by the HTS’ success in Syria, to be replicated in additional Moslem countries. Therefore, the Muslim Brotherhood branches in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and other Moslem countries have congratulated HTS for achieving the first goal of the Sunni Islamic revolution, expecting a robust tailwind to bringing down additional national Moslem regimes.
*HTS considers the toppling of Jordan’s pro-US Hashemite regime as a top priority, as does a chief enemy of HTS, Iran’s Ayatollahs. Both have intensified subversion, terrorism and drug trafficking in Jordan, leveraging the presence – in Jordan – of 2 million refugees from Syria and Iraq, a solid operational foundation of the Moslem Brotherhood, the presence of Palestinian terror organizations, and the intra-Bedouin animosity.
*The HTS’ success in Syria is inspiring the Moslem Brotherhood in its attempts to topple the pro-US General Sisi regime in Egypt, which is the 1928 birth site of the Moslem Brotherhood. In 1949, the Moslem Brotherhood assassinated Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmoud Nuqrashi; in 1954, the Moslem Brotherhood failed in its attempt to murder Egyptian President Nasser; in 1981, the Moslem Brotherhood’s offshoot, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, murdered Egyptian President Sadat. The Islamic Jihad merged with Al Qaeda.
*Prof. Albert Hourani, a leading Middle East historian, Oxford University’s St. Anthony’s College, noted the following tenets of the Muslim Brotherhood (A History of the Arab Peoples, pp. 445-446): “A total rejection of all forms of society except the wholly Islamic one…. The true Islamic society…regarded the Quran as the source of all guidance for human life…. All other societies were societies of Jahiliyya (ignorance of religious truth), whether they were communist, capitalist, nationalist, [followers of] false religions, or claimed to be Muslim but did not obey the Sharia…. The leadership of Western man in the human world is coming to an end… The turn of Islam has come….Those who accepted [the Muslim Brotherhood] program would form a vanguard of dedicated fighters, using every means, including Jihad… The struggle should aim at creating a universal Muslim society…. The Western age is finished…. Only Islam offered hope to the world…. [The Muslim Brotherhood] were prepared for violence and martyrdom.”
*The Muslim Brotherhood, just like the HTS, have been very skillful in obfuscating the West through Taqiyya and a two-pronged operation: the religious, educational, social and political screensavers, as well as the operational (subversive and terroristic) modes. In fact, the Muslim Brotherhood poses the following proposition: Submission to Allah and the Koran, or else…!
*Before embracing the Muslim Brotherhood’s and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s moderate talk, Western policy makers are advised to study the following observations by Sir John Jenkins, a top specialist on the Moslem Brotherhood and the Middle East, and former Executive Director of the British International Institute for Strategic Studies – Middle East branch:
“[The West] should resist the temptation to seek to understand the Muslim Brotherhood through our own cultural or epistemological [knowledge] categories…. [The Muslim Brotherhood] continues to threaten the constitutive basis of most contemporary Muslim majority states…. Some may still be tempted to hope that when a malign or otherwise unsatisfactory regime is overthrown the subsequent trajectory must be progressive. [Middle East] experience suggests the reverse…. Authoritarianism is not weakened in such circumstances: it recurs….
“[Hassan Al Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood] urged his followers to scorn life; claimed that ultimate martyrdom could only be attained through death in the service of the divine; articulated a doctrine of armed physical force…. The writings of Sayyid Qutb – its most significant and protean ideologue [who was executed in Egypt in 1966] – remain central to Brotherhood thinking everywhere and continue to be used to justify multiple forms of Islamist violence….”
“The Brotherhood… gives little space to tolerance, choice and individual freedoms…. no commitment to democratic choice…. It is constitutively antisemitic and homophobic….”
President Trump, Beware of the Syrian Volcano
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 10, 2024
*The unpredictable eruption of the Syrian volcano – which could emit molten lava well beyond Syria and the Middle East – sheds light on the following 1,400-year-old features of the radical/fundamentalist segment of the complicated, brutal and frustrating inter Arab/Moslem reality, which are currently menacing every pro-US Arab regime:
<Violent unpredictability;
<Ruthless despotism;
<Tenuous/shifty regimes, and therefore tenuous policies and accords;
<Violent clannish, ethnic, religious and ideological fragmentation, yielding a volatile balance of power;
<Superiority of local – over national – loyalty;
<Fanatical ideologies – which mandates destruction of enemies/rivals – transcend financial benefits and diplomatic agreements;
<Fanatical ideologies defy peaceful coexistence;
<Fanatical ideologies are enshrined in mosque sermons and school textbooks;
<Ideology – not despair – driven terrorism against “apostates” and “infidels.”
<Aiming to bring the “infidel” West to Islam or to submission.
<Western gestures perceived as weakness, whetting terrorists’ appetite;
<Dissimulation employed to mislead and overcome the “infidel” West;
<Deal-making as a means to advance fanatical ideology, not peaceful coexistence.
<Posture of deterrence is the key component of national security/survival.
*Against the backdrop of these Middle East features, and Israel’s pre-1967 9-15 mile waistline, Israel’s defensible borders must not be based on a state-of-peace, but rather be capable of withstanding unpredictable eruptions of lava (e.g., an abrupt military violation of a state-of-peace, or a recurrence of the October 7 horrific terrorism on three fronts). Israel’s defensible borders should be able to withstand the worst-case – not the best-case – scenarios in the most violent region in the world.
*The eruption of the Syrian volcano, and the victory of Islamic terrorists, will impact regional stability, emboldening epicenters of global Islamic terrorism, and undermining the stability of all pro-US Arab regimes and homeland security in Europe and the USA. The impact of the fall of the Assad regime may resemble the impact of the fall of the central regimes in Iraq (2003), Libya (2011) and Yemen (2010 and before), which transformed these countries into a chaotic arena of civil wars and global Sunni (e.g., Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Moslem Brotherhood) and Shiite (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs) terrorism.
*The toppling of the pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan – which is perceived by Syria to be its southern province – is high on the agenda of the Islamic terrorists, who toppled the Assad regime, and are committed to liberate (at least) the Levant, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Hatay in Turkey and Cyprus. The Islamic terrorists’ success in Syria is bolstering the on-going effort to oust the Hashemites, which is led by Iran’s Ayatollahs, as well as by ISIS and Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamic terrorists, the Moslem Brotherhood and Palestinian terror organizations. The downfall of the pro-US Hashemites would transform Jordan into another platform of Islamic terrorism, posing a clear and present threat to the Pro-US Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, as well as Israel, energizing global terrorism, jeopardizing Europe-Asia trade and – potentially – awarding control over 48% of global oil reserves to anti-Western Shiite and Sunni terrorists.
*Some Western policy makers have been impressed by the Dr. Jekyll-like talk, expressed by Mr. Hyde-like Islamic terrorists, who effectively leverage the Islamic art of “Taqqiya” (dissimulation). These terrorists follow in the footsteps of Bashar Assad, whose soft rhetoric induced then Senator John Kerry to suggest that Bashar Assad was a partner in stabilizing the region. They also imitate Yemen’s Houthi terrorists, who overwhelmed US diplomats with moderate statements in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election, which led to their delisting from the US list of terror organizations in February 2021 by Tony Blinken, the incoming Secretary of State. The Syria-based Islamic terrorists have also adopted the tactics of Ayatollah Khomeini, who flooded President Carter with moderate messages from his exile in Paris, in order to induce the US President to pressure the Iranian military (which was loyal to the Shah) to refrain from undermining the toppling of the pro-US Shah by the anti-US Khomeini. President Carter took the bait, facilitating the rise of the Ayatollahs to power. However, contrary to his commitments, Khomeini executed a significant number of pro-US military leaders, and proceeded to take over the US Embassy, holding 50 Americans hostage for 444 days, and transforming Iran from “The US Policeman of the Gulf” to the leading epicenter of anti-US terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems.
*This was one of several milestones, which have demonstrated that terrorists bite the hand that feeds them.
*A prerequisite for ending/minimizing terror and war – which is President Trump’s arch goal – is the elimination of the head of the poisonous octopus in Tehran. Negotiation with Iran’s Ayatollahs accords legitimacy to a ruthless, oppressive, terroristic regime. Any agreement concluded with – and any sanctions levied on – the Ayatollahs are reversible, as was demonstrated by Presidents Trump in 2018 (withdrawing from the JCPOA) and Biden in 2021 (suspending severe sanctions), and will not induce the Ayatollahs to abandon their anti-US rogue vision.
*Prof. P.J. Vatikiotis (Arab and Regional Politics in the Middle East), who was – along with Professors Elie Kedourie and Bernard Lewis – a game-changing historian of the Middle East sheds light on Middle East reality, warning Western policy makers against addiction to a self-destructive alternate reality:
“The present political map of the Arab Middle East may not be a permanent one (p. 94)…. Inter-Arab relations cannot be placed on a spectrum of linear development, moving from hell to paradise or vice versa. Rather, their course is partly cyclical, partly jerkily spiral, and always resting occasionally at some ‘grey’ area. American choices must be made on the assumption that what the Arabs want or desire is not always – if ever – what Americans desire. In fact, the two desires may be diametrically opposed and radically different (p. 115)…. Even without the Arab-Israel conflict, the Arab Middle East would have been a conflict-ridden and conflict-generating area (p. 77)…. Islam remained a source of legitimacy for all power. Other man-made institutions were secondary (p. 136)…. In practice, there has been no single or uniform Islamic understanding or explanation of phenomena (p. 137)…. No government or regime in power believes in, or allows for, the idea of an alternative government. It holds power until it is overthrown by a successful conspiracy, by subversion (p. 141)….”
*In order to avoid the systematic failure of the State Department’s Middle East policy, President Trump is advised to benefit from the experience of the late Prof. Vatikiotis, and refrain from subordinating Middle East reality – as frustrating as it is – to a more convenient alternate reality.
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