Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
July 15, 2026
*The gap between Middle East talk and walk is underscored by the Arabic colloquialism “On words one does not pay custom,” or “Words spoken at night are erased by daytime.”
*Middle East Talk has been highlighted as a primary weapon ofpsychological warfare, stalling fortime, a survival mechanism, tactical flexibility, diplomacy, Taqiyya (dissimulation), deterrence, rallying morale, intimidating and gaslighting rivals/enemies and befogging real intents, without committing oneself to a specific Walk, and without abandoning one’s ideology.
*Since 1978, US policy makers have indulged in a diplomatic dialogue with the Ayatollah regime, which has flooded US negotiators with tempting, business-like and peaceful-like talk, camouflaging the Ayatollah’s rogue, apocalyptic walk. The Ayatollah’s walk is clearly documented in the 1979 Constitution, school curriculum, mosque sermons and official media, which have transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a chief global epicenter of anti-US terrorism, wars, drug trafficking and money laundering in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and on US soil.
*The Jordanian Hashemite regime’s talk has consistently urged Israel to halt its military offensive against Hamas terrorists, demanding an immediate ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
However, the Jordanian regime’s walk – which reflects national security priorities – has diametrically contradicted its talk, especially since Hamas’ October 2023 terror offensive on Israel. It intensified the Hashemite fear of another “Palestinian Black September” attempt to topple the Amman regime. Jordan is aware of the systematic collaboration between the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinian terrorism. It considers Hamas – a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot – a major epicenter of subversion, incitement, money laundering, drug trafficking, terror plots and rockets/drones/drugs smuggling and manufacturing. Moreover, Hamas has collaborated with Iran’s Ayatollah regime, other Palestinian terror organizations and the Muslim Brotherhood (which was outlawed in April 2025, although it’s political arm, the IAF, is the largest party in Jordan’s Parliament). Hamas was expelled from Jordan in 1999, but has renewed its terrorism there, as well as against US bases in Jordan. Irrespective of its anti-Israel talk, the Hashemite regime’s military, commercial and diplomatic walk recognizes that Israel supplies critical water and counter-terror intelligence, and averted its potential oblivion in 1970 (forcing Syria to rollback its invasion of Jordan), and still acts as a line of defense for the pro-US, highly vulnerable Hashemite regime.
*Egypt’s talk has condemned Israel’s war on Hamas, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, just like Jordan, Egypt’s walk has been a derivative of its national security requirements, especially Hamas’ affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is viewed by General Sisi as an existential threat. Since its establishment in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood has attempted to topple Egypt’s central regimes, and since 2013, it has been outlawed, designated as a terrorist organization. Cairo is also aware of Hamas’ strategic alliance with the Ayatollah regime, which aims to topple all “apostate” pro-US Sunni regimes, including General Sisi. Moreover, Hamas has been effectively outlawed in Egypt, as a terrorist organization, including its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party. Egypt has heavily restricted Hamas operations in Egypt, designating its armed wing (Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades) as a terrorist entity.
*While the talk of both Jordan and Egypt, as well as that of most Arab countries, has castigated Israel for a disproportionate response to Hamas’ terrorism, and severely criticize the proposal to facilitate a voluntary relocation of Gaza residents to Egypt and Jordan, their national security driven walk is the inverse. They consider Israel’s war against Hamas to be aligned with their own homeland and national security requirements. They have concluded that a failure to obliterate Hamas would be perceived as a dramatic Hamas victory, generating a robust tailwind to Islamic terrorism in their own countries, posing an existential threat to most pro-US Arab regimes. On the other hand, Israel’s obliteration of Hamas would relieve all pro-US Arab regimes of a major lethal threat, and minimize regional instability.
*Furthermore, Egypt’s and Jordan’s refusal to consider the relocation of Gaza residents to their countries is a derivative of the Palestinian terrorist walk in Egypt (during the 1950s), Syria (1960s), Jordan (1968-1970), Lebanon (1970-1983), Kuwait (1990) and Iraq (until 2003), which transformed Palestinians into the role model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude. While the Western establishment is infatuated with the Palestinian moderate talk, embracing the proposed Palestinian state, the Arabs focus on the Palestinian rogue intra-Arab walk, and therefore have refrained (since 1948) from advancing the cause of the proposed Palestinian state. For instance, none of the 6 Israel-Arab peace treaties was preconditioned upon the establishment of a Palestinian state….
*The Saudi and the UAE’s public talk has emphasized restraint, diplomacy and de-escalation of the war on the Ayatollah regime. However, the walk of MBS, the Saudi Crown Prince, and MBZ, the President of the UAE, (including constructive defense, counter-terrorism, commercial and diplomatic cooperation with Israel) reflects full awareness of the lethal implications of the fanatical and apocalyptic Ayatollah vision, which mandates the toppling of every “apostate” Sunni regime – especially Saudi Arabia – and bring to submission the Western “infidel,” especially “The Great American Satan.” Both MBS and MBZ are concerned about the US continued embrace of the negotiation option, which, since February 1979, has been the leading engine of the Ayatollah surge to global geo-strategic prominence, setting the Ayatollah machete closer to the throats of all pro-US Sunni Arab states. Irrespective of its public talk and the renewal of diplomatic relations with Iran (ain’t the first, or the last, time!), Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be greatly relieved by a regime-change in Tehran. Both of them, as well as all other pro-US Arab regimes, consider Israel as the most reliable ally in their existential battle against the Ayatollah regime and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Bottom Line
*The contrast between rhetoric (talk) and reality (walk) has been ingrained in the Middle East for 1,400 years, following in the footsteps of the 7th century Caliph Muawiyah, who laid the groundwork for shifting allegiance and flexible talk, trumpeting adherence to pacts.
*The unpredictable, violently intolerant and shifty intra-Arab/Muslim track record behooves US policy-making to be driven by Middle East walk (reality) – as frustrating, costly and inconvenient as it is – rather than Middle East talk (alternate reality), as appealing as it may sound.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 10, 2024
*The unpredictable eruption of the Syrian volcano – which could emit molten lava well beyond Syria and the Middle East – sheds light on the following 1,400-year-old features of the radical/fundamentalist segment of the complicated, brutal and frustrating inter Arab/Moslem reality, which are currently menacing every pro-US Arab regime:
<Violent unpredictability;
<Ruthless despotism;
<Tenuous/shifty regimes, and therefore tenuous policies and accords;
<Violent clannish, ethnic, religious and ideological fragmentation, yielding a volatile balance of power;
<Superiority of local – over national – loyalty;
<Fanatical ideologies – which mandates destruction of enemies/rivals – transcend financial benefits and diplomatic agreements;
<Fanatical ideologies defy peaceful coexistence;
<Fanatical ideologies are enshrined in mosque sermons and school textbooks;
<Ideology – not despair – driven terrorism against “apostates” and “infidels.”
<Aiming to bring the “infidel” West to Islam or to submission.
<Western gestures perceived as weakness, whetting terrorists’ appetite;
<Dissimulation employed to mislead and overcome the “infidel” West;
<Deal-making as a means to advance fanatical ideology, not peaceful coexistence.
<Posture of deterrence is the key component of national security/survival.
*Against the backdrop of these Middle East features, and Israel’s pre-1967 9-15 mile waistline, Israel’s defensible borders must not be based on a state-of-peace, but rather be capable of withstanding unpredictable eruptions of lava (e.g., an abrupt military violation of a state-of-peace, or a recurrence of the October 7 horrific terrorism on three fronts). Israel’s defensible borders should be able to withstand the worst-case – not the best-case – scenarios in the most violent region in the world.
*The eruption of the Syrian volcano, and the victory of Islamic terrorists, will impact regional stability, emboldening epicenters of global Islamic terrorism, and undermining the stability of all pro-US Arab regimes and homeland security in Europe and the USA. The impact of the fall of the Assad regime may resemble the impact of the fall of the central regimes in Iraq (2003), Libya (2011) and Yemen (2010 and before), which transformed these countries into a chaotic arena of civil wars and global Sunni (e.g., Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Moslem Brotherhood) and Shiite (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs) terrorism.
*The toppling of the pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan – which is perceived by Syria to be its southern province – is high on the agenda of the Islamic terrorists, who toppled the Assad regime, and are committed to liberate (at least) the Levant, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Hatay in Turkey and Cyprus. The Islamic terrorists’ success in Syria is bolstering the on-going effort to oust the Hashemites, which is led by Iran’s Ayatollahs, as well as by ISIS and Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamic terrorists, the Moslem Brotherhood and Palestinian terror organizations. The downfall of the pro-US Hashemites would transform Jordan into another platform of Islamic terrorism, posing a clear and present threat to the Pro-US Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, as well as Israel, energizing global terrorism, jeopardizing Europe-Asia trade and – potentially – awarding control over 48% of global oil reserves to anti-Western Shiite and Sunni terrorists.
*Some Western policy makers have been impressed by the Dr. Jekyll-like talk, expressed by Mr. Hyde-like Islamic terrorists, who effectively leverage the Islamic art of “Taqqiya” (dissimulation). These terrorists follow in the footsteps of Bashar Assad, whose soft rhetoric induced then Senator John Kerry to suggest that Bashar Assad was a partner in stabilizing the region. They also imitate Yemen’s Houthi terrorists, who overwhelmed US diplomats with moderate statements in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election, which led to their delisting from the US list of terror organizations in February 2021 by Tony Blinken, the incoming Secretary of State. The Syria-based Islamic terrorists have also adopted the tactics of Ayatollah Khomeini, who flooded President Carter with moderate messages from his exile in Paris, in order to induce the US President to pressure the Iranian military (which was loyal to the Shah) to refrain from undermining the toppling of the pro-US Shah by the anti-US Khomeini. President Carter took the bait, facilitating the rise of the Ayatollahs to power. However, contrary to his commitments, Khomeini executed a significant number of pro-US military leaders, and proceeded to take over the US Embassy, holding 50 Americans hostage for 444 days, and transforming Iran from “The US Policeman of the Gulf” to the leading epicenter of anti-US terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems.
*This was one of several milestones, which have demonstrated that terrorists bite the hand that feeds them.
*A prerequisite for ending/minimizing terror and war – which is President Trump’s arch goal – is the elimination of the head of the poisonous octopus in Tehran. Negotiation with Iran’s Ayatollahs accords legitimacy to a ruthless, oppressive, terroristic regime. Any agreement concluded with – and any sanctions levied on – the Ayatollahs are reversible, as was demonstrated by Presidents Trump in 2018 (withdrawing from the JCPOA) and Biden in 2021 (suspending severe sanctions), and will not induce the Ayatollahs to abandon their anti-US rogue vision.
*Prof. P.J. Vatikiotis (Arab and Regional Politics in the Middle East), who was – along with Professors Elie Kedourie and Bernard Lewis – a game-changing historian of the Middle East sheds light on Middle East reality, warning Western policy makers against addiction to a self-destructive alternate reality:
“The present political map of the Arab Middle East may not be a permanent one (p. 94)…. Inter-Arab relations cannot be placed on a spectrum of linear development, moving from hell to paradise or vice versa. Rather, their course is partly cyclical, partly jerkily spiral, and always resting occasionally at some ‘grey’ area. American choices must be made on the assumption that what the Arabs want or desire is not always – if ever – what Americans desire. In fact, the two desires may be diametrically opposed and radically different (p. 115)…. Even without the Arab-Israel conflict, the Arab Middle East would have been a conflict-ridden and conflict-generating area (p. 77)…. Islam remained a source of legitimacy for all power. Other man-made institutions were secondary (p. 136)…. In practice, there has been no single or uniform Islamic understanding or explanation of phenomena (p. 137)…. No government or regime in power believes in, or allows for, the idea of an alternative government. It holds power until it is overthrown by a successful conspiracy, by subversion (p. 141)….”
*In order to avoid the systematic failure of the State Department’s Middle East policy, President Trump is advised to benefit from the experience of the late Prof. Vatikiotis, and refrain from subordinating Middle East reality – as frustrating as it is – to a more convenient alternate reality.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
October 2, 2026
*The late King Hussein recognized Jordan’s susceptibility to a repeat of the deadly “Black September,” due to its intrinsic demographic vulnerabilities, such as the restive Palestinian majority time bomb, which traditionally collaborates with the subversive/terroristic Muslim Brotherhood, while the Bedouin tribal society is inherently fragmented. Therefore, the King warned Western and Israeli policy makers that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-Western Hashemite regime east of the river. Moreover, a Palestinian state would deny Jordan the defensive benefits of the Israel’s full control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria, that played a key role in aborting the “Black September” Palestinian assault. In fact, a more volcanic “Black September” could reoccur due to the presence of 1-2 million Syrian refugees in northern Jordan (some of them terrorists and drug traffickers), Iran-inspired terrorist activities in Jordan and the neighboring Iraq, and the potent presence in Jordan of Hamas terrorists, who are inspired by the October 2023 horrific terror offensive against Israel, and Western appeasement of Hamas, in particular, and Palestinian terrorism, in general.
*Western policy makers’ infatuation with the proposed Palestinian state has been driven by Western preoccupation with the moderate Palestinian talk, which is aimed at Western target audiences. On the other hand, Arabs have been preoccupied with the rogue Palestinian intra-Arab walk, which has led the Arabs to display indifference-to-rejection toward the proposed Palestinian state.
*Since 1948, Arab countries have never flexed military, financial or political muscles on behalf of the proposed Palestinian state. No Arab war against Israel was launched due to the Palestinian issue, and never did Arabs intervene militarily during Israel-Palestinian wars. In fact, in November 2023, an Iranian-Algerian-Palestinian proposition to end all diplomatic-economic-defense-tourist ties with Israel was rejected by a joint summit of The Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
*While the Arab talk has been overwhelmingly supportive of the proposed Palestinian state, the Arab walk has systematically refrained from – and occasionally opposed – the establishment of a Palestinian state.
*Arabs do not sacrifice their interests on the altar of a proposed Palestinian state, which they consider as an existential threat. They are fully aware of the 55-year-rogue Palestinian intra-Arab track record, terrorizing their host Arab governments in Egypt (1950s), Syria (1960s), Jordan (1970), Lebanon (1970-1982) and Kuwait (1990). This track record has positioned Palestinians as the role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.
*The Arabs are, also, aware of the Palestinians’ collaboration with – and training of – terrorist organizations in Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America, as well as their relationship with radically ruthless anti-Western regimes, such as Nazi Germany, the Soviet Bloc (including ideological and operational links with the Soviet KGB and the East German Stasi), Ayatollah Khomeini, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, China and Russia.
*Western policy makers have contended that Palestinian terror has been driven by despair, and therefore should be dealt with diplomatically and financially – not militarily – and bolstered by appeasement and concessions. However, Middle East reality documents that Palestinian terror has been driven by a fanatical ideology (e.g., Fatah’s and PLO’s 1959 and 1964 Charters – before the 1967 War), which mandates the total uprooting – not size reduction – of the “illegal Zionist entity.”
*Western policy makers have been obsessed with speculations about a reformed Palestinian state. In contrast, Arab policy makers have been preoccupied with the well-documented Palestinian rogue track record. They are convinced that assessments of the nature of the proposed Palestinian state – and its geo strategic impact – should be based on the well-documented track record rather than well-intentioned speculations.
*Therefore, Jordan and Egypt did their utmost to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, when they fully controlled Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and Gaza in 1949-1967. Moreover, in 1948, the Arab League established the “All Palestine Government,” downgrading it to a “Palestinian Desk” in 1950-52, and eliminating it in 1955.
*In 1970, Jordan’s Prime Minister Wasfi al-Tal and Commander of the Armed Forces Habis al-Majali stated that Palestinian ideology was fundamentally incompatible with Jordan’s national sovereignty. In 1974, King Hussein warned Western policy makers that a Palestinian state in the West Bank would leverage Jordan’s demographic reality (e.g., a Palestinian majority) and constitute a real and clear existential threat to the Hashemite regime. In 1993, the King told the Head of Israel’s Mossad that the Oslo Accord could lead to a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, an irredentist springboard, destabilizing Jordan – a death sentence to Jordan’s pro-Western Hashemite regime east of the Jordan River. That warning was echoed by Jordan’s military Chief-of-Staff and Head of Military Intelligence during the October 1994 signing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty.
*The toppling of Jordan’s Hashemite regime would transform Jordan into another platform of anti-Western Islamic terrorism, involving the Muslim Brotherhood, Palestinian terror organizations, proxies of the Ayatollah regime, ISIS, etc. This terrorism would not be confined to the area of Jordan, but would spread southward, triggering existential threats to the pro-Western Arab regimes in Egypt (via the terror-ridden Sinai Peninsula), Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, further destabilizing the Middle East – the epicenter of 9/11-like anti-Western Islamic terrorism, the location of 48% of global oil reserves and a critical intersection of trade sea lanes between the Far East and Western Europe.
*The toppling of the Hashemite regime would advance a key strategic aspiration of the Ayatollah regime to establish contiguous land access to Israel and to the Mediterranean (via Gaza), while encircling Saudi Arabia.
*A Palestinian statewould welcome cooperation with China and Russia, which would include intelligence stations and the funding of – and access to – an upgraded port in the Gaza Strip, bolstering their stature in the western Mediterranean, as Middle East powerbrokers at the expense of the US.
*Western policy makers, who accord much significance to moderate Palestinian talk, and therefore speculate on a reformed Palestinian state – which would abandon core ideology, depart from its rogue track record, and embrace peaceful coexistence – would benefit from the following country colloquialism: “You may put your boots in the oven, but that don’t make them biscuits!”
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
July 15, 2026
*The gap between Middle East talk and walk is underscored by the Arabic colloquialism “On words one does not pay custom,” or “Words spoken at night are erased by daytime.”
*Middle East Talk has been highlighted as a primary weapon ofpsychological warfare, stalling fortime, a survival mechanism, tactical flexibility, diplomacy, Taqiyya (dissimulation), deterrence, rallying morale, intimidating and gaslighting rivals/enemies and befogging real intents, without committing oneself to a specific Walk, and without abandoning one’s ideology.
*Since 1978, US policy makers have indulged in a diplomatic dialogue with the Ayatollah regime, which has flooded US negotiators with tempting, business-like and peaceful-like talk, camouflaging the Ayatollah’s rogue, apocalyptic walk. The Ayatollah’s walk is clearly documented in the 1979 Constitution, school curriculum, mosque sermons and official media, which have transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a chief global epicenter of anti-US terrorism, wars, drug trafficking and money laundering in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and on US soil.
*The Jordanian Hashemite regime’s talk has consistently urged Israel to halt its military offensive against Hamas terrorists, demanding an immediate ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
However, the Jordanian regime’s walk – which reflects national security priorities – has diametrically contradicted its talk, especially since Hamas’ October 2023 terror offensive on Israel. It intensified the Hashemite fear of another “Palestinian Black September” attempt to topple the Amman regime. Jordan is aware of the systematic collaboration between the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood and Palestinian terrorism. It considers Hamas – a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot – a major epicenter of subversion, incitement, money laundering, drug trafficking, terror plots and rockets/drones/drugs smuggling and manufacturing. Moreover, Hamas has collaborated with Iran’s Ayatollah regime, other Palestinian terror organizations and the Muslim Brotherhood (which was outlawed in April 2025, although it’s political arm, the IAF, is the largest party in Jordan’s Parliament). Hamas was expelled from Jordan in 1999, but has renewed its terrorism there, as well as against US bases in Jordan. Irrespective of its anti-Israel talk, the Hashemite regime’s military, commercial and diplomatic walk recognizes that Israel supplies critical water and counter-terror intelligence, and averted its potential oblivion in 1970 (forcing Syria to rollback its invasion of Jordan), and still acts as a line of defense for the pro-US, highly vulnerable Hashemite regime.
*Egypt’s talk has condemned Israel’s war on Hamas, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, just like Jordan, Egypt’s walk has been a derivative of its national security requirements, especially Hamas’ affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is viewed by General Sisi as an existential threat. Since its establishment in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood has attempted to topple Egypt’s central regimes, and since 2013, it has been outlawed, designated as a terrorist organization. Cairo is also aware of Hamas’ strategic alliance with the Ayatollah regime, which aims to topple all “apostate” pro-US Sunni regimes, including General Sisi. Moreover, Hamas has been effectively outlawed in Egypt, as a terrorist organization, including its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party. Egypt has heavily restricted Hamas operations in Egypt, designating its armed wing (Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades) as a terrorist entity.
*While the talk of both Jordan and Egypt, as well as that of most Arab countries, has castigated Israel for a disproportionate response to Hamas’ terrorism, and severely criticize the proposal to facilitate a voluntary relocation of Gaza residents to Egypt and Jordan, their national security driven walk is the inverse. They consider Israel’s war against Hamas to be aligned with their own homeland and national security requirements. They have concluded that a failure to obliterate Hamas would be perceived as a dramatic Hamas victory, generating a robust tailwind to Islamic terrorism in their own countries, posing an existential threat to most pro-US Arab regimes. On the other hand, Israel’s obliteration of Hamas would relieve all pro-US Arab regimes of a major lethal threat, and minimize regional instability.
*Furthermore, Egypt’s and Jordan’s refusal to consider the relocation of Gaza residents to their countries is a derivative of the Palestinian terrorist walk in Egypt (during the 1950s), Syria (1960s), Jordan (1968-1970), Lebanon (1970-1983), Kuwait (1990) and Iraq (until 2003), which transformed Palestinians into the role model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude. While the Western establishment is infatuated with the Palestinian moderate talk, embracing the proposed Palestinian state, the Arabs focus on the Palestinian rogue intra-Arab walk, and therefore have refrained (since 1948) from advancing the cause of the proposed Palestinian state. For instance, none of the 6 Israel-Arab peace treaties was preconditioned upon the establishment of a Palestinian state….
*The Saudi and the UAE’s public talk has emphasized restraint, diplomacy and de-escalation of the war on the Ayatollah regime. However, the walk of MBS, the Saudi Crown Prince, and MBZ, the President of the UAE, (including constructive defense, counter-terrorism, commercial and diplomatic cooperation with Israel) reflects full awareness of the lethal implications of the fanatical and apocalyptic Ayatollah vision, which mandates the toppling of every “apostate” Sunni regime – especially Saudi Arabia – and bring to submission the Western “infidel,” especially “The Great American Satan.” Both MBS and MBZ are concerned about the US continued embrace of the negotiation option, which, since February 1979, has been the leading engine of the Ayatollah surge to global geo-strategic prominence, setting the Ayatollah machete closer to the throats of all pro-US Sunni Arab states. Irrespective of its public talk and the renewal of diplomatic relations with Iran (ain’t the first, or the last, time!), Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be greatly relieved by a regime-change in Tehran. Both of them, as well as all other pro-US Arab regimes, consider Israel as the most reliable ally in their existential battle against the Ayatollah regime and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Bottom Line
*The contrast between rhetoric (talk) and reality (walk) has been ingrained in the Middle East for 1,400 years, following in the footsteps of the 7th century Caliph Muawiyah, who laid the groundwork for shifting allegiance and flexible talk, trumpeting adherence to pacts.
*The unpredictable, violently intolerant and shifty intra-Arab/Muslim track record behooves US policy-making to be driven by Middle East walk (reality) – as frustrating, costly and inconvenient as it is – rather than Middle East talk (alternate reality), as appealing as it may sound.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
December 10, 2024
*The unpredictable eruption of the Syrian volcano – which could emit molten lava well beyond Syria and the Middle East – sheds light on the following 1,400-year-old features of the radical/fundamentalist segment of the complicated, brutal and frustrating inter Arab/Moslem reality, which are currently menacing every pro-US Arab regime:
<Violent unpredictability;
<Ruthless despotism;
<Tenuous/shifty regimes, and therefore tenuous policies and accords;
<Violent clannish, ethnic, religious and ideological fragmentation, yielding a volatile balance of power;
<Superiority of local – over national – loyalty;
<Fanatical ideologies – which mandates destruction of enemies/rivals – transcend financial benefits and diplomatic agreements;
<Fanatical ideologies defy peaceful coexistence;
<Fanatical ideologies are enshrined in mosque sermons and school textbooks;
<Ideology – not despair – driven terrorism against “apostates” and “infidels.”
<Aiming to bring the “infidel” West to Islam or to submission.
<Western gestures perceived as weakness, whetting terrorists’ appetite;
<Dissimulation employed to mislead and overcome the “infidel” West;
<Deal-making as a means to advance fanatical ideology, not peaceful coexistence.
<Posture of deterrence is the key component of national security/survival.
*Against the backdrop of these Middle East features, and Israel’s pre-1967 9-15 mile waistline, Israel’s defensible borders must not be based on a state-of-peace, but rather be capable of withstanding unpredictable eruptions of lava (e.g., an abrupt military violation of a state-of-peace, or a recurrence of the October 7 horrific terrorism on three fronts). Israel’s defensible borders should be able to withstand the worst-case – not the best-case – scenarios in the most violent region in the world.
*The eruption of the Syrian volcano, and the victory of Islamic terrorists, will impact regional stability, emboldening epicenters of global Islamic terrorism, and undermining the stability of all pro-US Arab regimes and homeland security in Europe and the USA. The impact of the fall of the Assad regime may resemble the impact of the fall of the central regimes in Iraq (2003), Libya (2011) and Yemen (2010 and before), which transformed these countries into a chaotic arena of civil wars and global Sunni (e.g., Al Qaeda, ISIS, the Moslem Brotherhood) and Shiite (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs) terrorism.
*The toppling of the pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan – which is perceived by Syria to be its southern province – is high on the agenda of the Islamic terrorists, who toppled the Assad regime, and are committed to liberate (at least) the Levant, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Hatay in Turkey and Cyprus. The Islamic terrorists’ success in Syria is bolstering the on-going effort to oust the Hashemites, which is led by Iran’s Ayatollahs, as well as by ISIS and Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamic terrorists, the Moslem Brotherhood and Palestinian terror organizations. The downfall of the pro-US Hashemites would transform Jordan into another platform of Islamic terrorism, posing a clear and present threat to the Pro-US Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, as well as Israel, energizing global terrorism, jeopardizing Europe-Asia trade and – potentially – awarding control over 48% of global oil reserves to anti-Western Shiite and Sunni terrorists.
*Some Western policy makers have been impressed by the Dr. Jekyll-like talk, expressed by Mr. Hyde-like Islamic terrorists, who effectively leverage the Islamic art of “Taqqiya” (dissimulation). These terrorists follow in the footsteps of Bashar Assad, whose soft rhetoric induced then Senator John Kerry to suggest that Bashar Assad was a partner in stabilizing the region. They also imitate Yemen’s Houthi terrorists, who overwhelmed US diplomats with moderate statements in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election, which led to their delisting from the US list of terror organizations in February 2021 by Tony Blinken, the incoming Secretary of State. The Syria-based Islamic terrorists have also adopted the tactics of Ayatollah Khomeini, who flooded President Carter with moderate messages from his exile in Paris, in order to induce the US President to pressure the Iranian military (which was loyal to the Shah) to refrain from undermining the toppling of the pro-US Shah by the anti-US Khomeini. President Carter took the bait, facilitating the rise of the Ayatollahs to power. However, contrary to his commitments, Khomeini executed a significant number of pro-US military leaders, and proceeded to take over the US Embassy, holding 50 Americans hostage for 444 days, and transforming Iran from “The US Policeman of the Gulf” to the leading epicenter of anti-US terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems.
*This was one of several milestones, which have demonstrated that terrorists bite the hand that feeds them.
*A prerequisite for ending/minimizing terror and war – which is President Trump’s arch goal – is the elimination of the head of the poisonous octopus in Tehran. Negotiation with Iran’s Ayatollahs accords legitimacy to a ruthless, oppressive, terroristic regime. Any agreement concluded with – and any sanctions levied on – the Ayatollahs are reversible, as was demonstrated by Presidents Trump in 2018 (withdrawing from the JCPOA) and Biden in 2021 (suspending severe sanctions), and will not induce the Ayatollahs to abandon their anti-US rogue vision.
*Prof. P.J. Vatikiotis (Arab and Regional Politics in the Middle East), who was – along with Professors Elie Kedourie and Bernard Lewis – a game-changing historian of the Middle East sheds light on Middle East reality, warning Western policy makers against addiction to a self-destructive alternate reality:
“The present political map of the Arab Middle East may not be a permanent one (p. 94)…. Inter-Arab relations cannot be placed on a spectrum of linear development, moving from hell to paradise or vice versa. Rather, their course is partly cyclical, partly jerkily spiral, and always resting occasionally at some ‘grey’ area. American choices must be made on the assumption that what the Arabs want or desire is not always – if ever – what Americans desire. In fact, the two desires may be diametrically opposed and radically different (p. 115)…. Even without the Arab-Israel conflict, the Arab Middle East would have been a conflict-ridden and conflict-generating area (p. 77)…. Islam remained a source of legitimacy for all power. Other man-made institutions were secondary (p. 136)…. In practice, there has been no single or uniform Islamic understanding or explanation of phenomena (p. 137)…. No government or regime in power believes in, or allows for, the idea of an alternative government. It holds power until it is overthrown by a successful conspiracy, by subversion (p. 141)….”
*In order to avoid the systematic failure of the State Department’s Middle East policy, President Trump is advised to benefit from the experience of the late Prof. Vatikiotis, and refrain from subordinating Middle East reality – as frustrating as it is – to a more convenient alternate reality.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
August 12, 2024
*Iran’s Shiite Ayatollahs share a common strategic goal with Russia, China and Sunni Islamic terrorism (e.g., the Moslem Brotherhood, including Hamas) to undermine the geo-strategic posture of the US, in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East at-large, Africa, as well as Latin America, which is the soft underbelly of the US. However, the State Department insists on a diplomatic option toward the Ayatollahs, which has yielded them hundreds of billions of dollars, since 1979, bolstering their anti-US rogue capabilities….
*Bringing “The Great American Satan” to submission has been a top priority for Iran’s Ayatollahs since the toppling of the Shah in February 1979, as evidenced by their rogue actions, 1979 Constitution, school curriculum, mosque sermons and military indoctrination. However, Foggy Bottom would not consider the regime-change option….
*The February 1979 Islamic Revolution – which benefitted from a State Department tailwind – has transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to the world’s leading epicenter of anti-US global terrorism (including on US soil), drug trafficking, money laundering and the proliferation of advanced military systems to anti-US entities. Still, the State Department refuses to define Iran’s Ayatollahs as a terror regime, sticking to diplomacy in dealing with the rogue Ayatollahs, softening and suspending economic sanctions against Tehran….
*Therefore, the Ayatollahs – along with their proxy, Hezbollah terrorists – have entrenched themselves throughout Latin America – since the early 1980s – collaborating with the drug cartels of Mexico, Columbia, Bolivia, Ecuador and Brazil, as well as with every anti-US government. They supply these anti-US entities with predator unmanned aerial vehicles and equipment to construct underground tunnels from Mexico into the US. Nevertheless, the State Department is determined to prove that showering the Ayatollahs with financial and diplomatic bonanzas would induce them to accept peaceful-coexistence with their Sunni Arab neighbors, become good-faith negotiators, and abandon their 1,400-year-old fanatic ideology….
*The Ayatollahs have subverted and terrorized every pro-US Arab regime, with a focus on Saudi Arabia (the home of Mecca and Medina, the two holiest sites of Islam) and other oil-producing Arab regimes. Toppling these regimes would yield the Ayatollahs control of 48% of global oil and natural gas reserves, which would impact the price at the pump. Yet, the State Department pressures the pro-US Saudis, Emiratis and Egyptians, while courting the anti-US Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood….
*The pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan has been a prime target, for the Ayatollahs, due to its location, bordering Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq. Thus, the toppling of the pro-US Hashemite regime would extend the strategic hand of the anti-US Ayatollahs through Iraq and Syria (which are largely controlled by the Ayatollahs) closer to the Mediterranean. It would bestow upon the Ayatollahs a grand doubleheader: encircling Israel by the Iran-controlled belt of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Gaza, while engulfing Saudi Arabia from Iran-controlled Yemen, Qatar, Iran, Iraq and Jordan. But, Foggy Bottom reacts feebly to the expanded Iranian bombing of US installations in the Gulf area, Syria and Jordan, while seeking another nuclear accord with the Ayatollahs….
*The Ayatollahs aim to leverage Jordan’s domestic vulnerability, which features an intra-Bedouin tribal fragmentation; the solid base of the (mostly Palestinian) Moslem Brotherhood terrorism in Jordan; and the 70% Palestinian majority – a fertile ground for terrorism – and its inherent conflict with the pro-US ruling Bedouin minority. In addition, many Islamic terrorists are among the 2 million Iraqi and (mostly) Syrian refugees, who have been absorbed in northern Jordan.
*An Ayatollahs’ success to topple the pro-US Hashemite regime would transform Jordan into another platform of anti-US Islamic terrorism – in the mold of Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, which would yield a terrorist domino scenario into the Arabian Peninsula, lethally threatening every pro-US Arab oil-producing regime, which would confer upon Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Moslem Brotherhood, Russia and China a geo-strategic and economic bonanza, while dealing a dramatic economic, national security and homeland security setback to the US and other Western democracies. Nonetheless, the State Department establishment is preoccupied with its own alternate reality, which is more convenient, predictable, tolerant and peaceful than Middle East reality….
*According to a May 15, 2024 Reuters report: “In January, an unprecedented attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan was carried out by Iran-aligned groups based in Iraq, which left three U.S. soldiers dead and 40 injured…. In recent months, Jordan’s security services have thwarted numerous attempts by Iran and its allied [Syrian and Iraqi terrorist proxies] to smuggle in arms including Claymore mines, C4 and Semtex explosives, Kalashnikov rifles and 107mm Katyusha rockets…. Iran and its allied Hamas and Hezbollah are trying to recruit young, radical members of the kingdom’s Muslim Brotherhood [which collaborates with the PLO/PA and other Palestinian terror organizations] to their anti-Israel, anti-U.S. cause in a bid to expand the Tehran’s regional network of aligned forces…. Iranian-led plots aim to smuggle weapons into the US-allied kingdom to help opponents of the ruling monarchy carry out acts of sabotage. The weapons were sent by Iranian-backed militias in Syria to a cell of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood that has links to Hamas…. The Brotherhood, [which is embraced by the State Department], enjoys a wide base of support in Jordan from both the Palestinian majority and the Bedouin minority…. The Muslim Brotherhood is a transnational Islamist movement, of which Hamas is an offshoot founded in 1988…. The hostility between Iran and Jordan dates back to 2004, in the wake of the US-led invasion of Iraq, when King Abdullah accused Iran of trying to create a ‘Shi’ite crescent’ to expand its regional power….”
*While Iran’s Ayatollahs pose an intensified threat to the US national and homeland security, demonstrating that they are not a party to good faith negotiation – but an enemy determined to bring “The Great American Satan” to submission – the State Department persists in its self-destructive diplomatic option, couched with hundreds of billions of dollars to the Ayatollahs, resisting the regime-change option.
Israel’s and the US’ counter-terrorism
*Islamic and Palestinian terrorism consider Israel as a critical beachhead – and a proxy – of the US in the Middle East and a significant collaborator with the pro-US Arab regimes. They perceive the war on “the infidel Jewish State” as a preview of their more significant war on “the infidel West” and their attempts to topple all pro-US Sunni Arab regimes. Therefore, Islamic and Palestinian terrorism has been engaged in intra-Arab subversion, while systematically collaborating with enemies and rivals of the US and the West (e.g., Nazi Germany, the Soviet Bloc, Ayatollah Khomeini, Latin American, European, African and Asian terror organizations, North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba). The more robust is Israel’s war on terrorism, the more deterred are the terrorists in their attempts to bring the “infidel” West to submission.
*Islamic and Palestinian terrorism has terrorized Jewish communities in the Land of Israel since the late 19th century, adhering to an annihilationist vision as detailed by the Fatah and PLO charters of 1959 and 1964 (eight and three years before 1967), as well as by the hate-education system, which was installed by Mahmoud Abbas in 1993 following the signing of the Oslo Accord.
*Israel battles Palestinian terrorism (Hamas and the Palestinian Authority) and Islamic terrorism (Iran and Hezbollah), which are not preoccupied with the size – but with the eradication – of the “infidel” Jewish State from “the abode of Islam.”
*Israel and the West fight against deeply-rooted and institutional Islamic and Palestinian terrorism, that is inspired by 1,400-year-old rogue values, which are perpetrated by K-12 hate-education, mosque incitement and official and public idolization of terrorists.
*Israel and the West combat terrorism, that has astutely employed 1,400-year-old Islamic values such the “Taqiya’ ” – which promotes double-speak and dissimulation, as a means to mislead and defeat enemies – and the “Hudna’,” which misrepresents a temporary non-binding ceasefire with “infidels” as if it were a peace treaty.
*Israel and the West confront Islamic and Palestinian terrorism, which is politically, religiously and ideologically led by despotic and rogue regimes, rejecting Western values, such as peaceful-coexistence, democracy, human rights and good-faith negotiation.
*Israel and the West face off against Palestinian and Islamic terrorism, which does not allow lavish financial and diplomatic temptations to transcend intrinsic, fanatic, rogue and annihilationist vision. Moreover, terrorists bite the hands that feed them.
*Israel and the West are not assaulted by despair-driven terrorism, but by hope-driven terrorism – the hope to bring the “infidel” to submission. The aspiration of these terrorists contradicts peaceful-coexistence.
*Israel and the West clash with terrorists, who view gestures, concessions and hesitancy as weakness, which inflames terrorism.
*Israel and the West struggle against terrorism, which is not driven by a particular Israeli or US policy, but by a fanatic vision. Thus, Islamic terrorism afflicted the US during the Clinton and Obama Democratic Administrations, as well as during the Bush and Trump Republican Administrations.
*The US State Department has embraced a “moral equivalence” between Palestinian terrorists – who systematically and deliberately hit civilians, while sometimes hitting soldiers – and Israeli soldiers, who systematically and deliberately hit terrorists, while sometimes, unintentionally, hitting civilians. It emboldens terrorism, which threatens all pro-US Arab regimes, undermining regional stability, benefiting US’ rivals and enemies, while damaging the US.
War on terrorism
*The bolstering of posture of deterrence – rather than hesitancy, restraint, containment and gestures, which inflame terrorism – is a prerequisite for defeating terrorism and advancing the peace process.
*The most effective long-term war on terrorism – operationally, diplomatically, economically and morally – is not a surgical or comprehensive reaction, but a comprehensive and disproportional preemption, targeting the gamut of terroristic infrastructures and capabilities, draining the swamp of terrorism, rather than chasing the mosquitos.
*Containment produces a short-term, false sense of security, followed by a long-term security setback. It is the terrorists’ wet dream, which does not moderate terrorism, but adrenalizes its veins, providing time to bolster its capabilities – a tailwind to terror and a headwind to counter-terrorism. It shakes the confidence in the capability to crush terrorism. Defeating terrorism mandates obliteration of capabilities, not co-existence or containment.
*Containment aims to avoid a multi-front war (Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, Hezbollah and Iran), but it erodes Israel’s posture of deterrence, which brings Israel closer to a multi-front war under much worse conditions.
*Containment erodes Israel’s posture of deterrence in the eyes of the relatively-moderate Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, the Sudan, Jordan and Egypt), which have dramatically enhanced cooperation with Israel due to Israel’s posture of deterrence against mutual threats, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs, the “Muslim Brotherhood” and ISIS terrorists).
*Containment is also a derivative of White House’s and the State Department’s pressure, subordinating national security to diplomatic priorities. It undermines Israel’s posture of deterrence, which plays into the hand of anti-Israel and anti-US rogue regimes. Precedents prove that Israeli defiance of US pressure yields short-term tension, but long-term strategic respect, resulting in expanded strategic cooperation. On a rainy day, the US prefers a defiant, rather than appeasing, strategic ally.
*The 2002 comprehensive counter-terrorism Israeli offensive, and the return of Israel’s Defense Forces to the headquarters of Palestinian terrorism in the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) – and not defensive containment and surgical operations – resurrected Israel’s effective war on Palestinian terrorism, which substantially curtailed terrorists’ capabilities to proliferate terrorism in Israel, Jordan and the Sinai Peninsula.
*The containment option intensifies terrorists’ daring, feeds vacillation and the self-destructive “don’t rock the boat” mentality. It erodes steadfastness and confidence in the capabilities to withstand the cost of terrorism, and feeds the suicidal perpetual retreat mentality.
*The addiction to containment is one of the lethal by-products of the 1993 Oslo Accord, which has produced a uniquely effective hot house of terrorism, highlighted by the importation, arming and funding of some 100,000 Palestinian terrorists from Tunisia, the Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria to Gaza, Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, who have unprecedentedly radicalized the Arab population of pre-1967 Israel, established a K-12 hate education system, launched an unparalleled wave of terrorism, and systematically violated agreements.
The bottom line
*The 30 years since the Oslo Accord have featured unprecedented Palestinian hate-education and wave of terrorism. It has demonstrated that a retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria has boosted terrorism; that the Palestinian Authority is not committed to a peace process, but to the destruction of the Jewish State; and that terrorism requires a military, not political, solution. A successful war on terrorism behooves a preemptive offense, not defense, containment and reaction; and that fighting in the terrorists’ own trenches is preferable to fighting in one’s own trenches. No Israeli concessions could satisfy international pressure; and diplomatic popularity is inferior to strategic respect. Avoiding a repeat of the critical post-Oslo errors requires a comprehensive, disproportional, decisive military campaign to uproot – not to coexist with – terroristic infrastructures.
*The historic and national security indispensability of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which dominate the 8-15-mile sliver of pre-1967 Israel – and the necessity to frustrate Palestinian terrorism, behooves Israel to eliminate any sign of hesitancy and vacillation by expanding the Jewish presence in this most critical area. It will intensify US and global pressure, but as documented by all Prime Ministers from Ben Gurion, through Eshkol, Golda Meir, Begin and Shamir, defiance of pressure results in the enhancement of strategic respect and cooperation.
*The Palestinian track record during the 30 years since the 1993 Oslo Accord has highlighted the violent, unpredictable and anti-US rogue nature of the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, which would force the toppling of the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River. It would transform Jordan into an uncontrollable, chaotic state in the vein of Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, triggering a domino scenario into the Arabian Peninsula (south of Jordan), which could topple the pro-US, oil-producing Arab regimes. This would reward Iran’s Ayatollahs, China and Russia, while severely undermining regional and global stability and US economic and national security interests.
A new 8-minute-video: YouTube, Facebook
Synopsis:
*Israel’s control of the topographically-dominant mountain ridges of the Golan Heights, Judea and Samaria has enhanced Israel’s posture of deterrence, constraining regional violence, transforming Israel into a unique force-multiplier for the US.
*Top Jordanian military officers warned that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, transforming Jordan into a non-controllable terrorist heaven, generating an anti-US domino scenario in the Arabian Peninsula.
*Israel’s control of Judea and Samaria has eliminated much of the threat (to Jordan) of Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian terrorism.
*Israel’s posture of deterrence emboldens Jordan in the face of domestic and regional threats, sparing the US the need to deploy its own troops, in order to avoid an economic and national security setback.
*The proposed Palestinian state would become the Palestinian straw that would break the pro-US Hashemite back.
*The Palestinian track record of the last 100 years suggests that the proposed Palestinian state would be a rogue entity, adding fuel to the Middle East fire, undermining US interests.
Jordan’s domestic vulnerability
Jordan’s domestic upheaval involved some Arab countries, members of the royal Jordanian family and other prominent Bedouins, who were arrested and charged with an attempted regime change.
A regime-change in Jordan could transform the strategically-located country – between Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Israel – into another haven for Palestinian and Islamic terrorism. It would threaten the existence of the current regimes in Saudi Arabia, all other pro-US Gulf states and Egypt, advancing the interests of Iran’s Ayatollahs, Turkey’s Erdogan, the Muslim Brotherhood, China and Russia, while traumatizing regional stability and with dire Western and Israeli national security and economic consequences.
Jordan’s inherent political and ideological vulnerability has been fueled by intra-Bedouin fragmentation and conflicts, dating back to 1921, when the Hashemite Bedouin family was imported to Jordan – from Hejaz in western Saudi Arabia – by the British Empire, and imposed upon the indigenous Bedouins of (mostly southern) Jordan. Furthermore, Jordan’s Bedouins are deeply divided, geographically, tribally, culturally, ideologically and religiously, with some of the southern tribes considering the Hashemites “carpetbaggers” from the Arabian Peninsula, Westernized and straying away from Islam and pan-Arabism by concluding a peace treaty with the “infidel” Jewish State.
Moreover, 70% of Jordan’s population are Palestinians, while Palestinian leaders (e.g., the PLO, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas) view Jordan as an artificial entity, the eastern (78%) part of Palestine. Hence, Palestinian active involvement in subversion and terrorism in Jordan and occasional attempts to topple the Hashemite regime, such as the civil war in September 1970 and the 1989 wave of terrorism.
Therefore, Palestinians have been involved in the Muslim Brotherhood’s political and terroristic subversion in Jordan, as they have been in the Brotherhood’s operations against the regimes of Egypt and the Gulf States.
In addition, ISIS veterans of Iraq and Syria civil wars have settled down in Jordan, and many Islamic terrorists are among the 2 million Iraqi and (mostly) Syrian refugees, who have been absorbed in northern Jordan.
This Jordanian upheaval sheds light on the following fourteen-century-old features of the Middle East:
*Family, clan and tribal loyalty supersede national loyalty;
*Political volatility, unpredictability and instability;
*Domestic and regional fragmentation;
*Transient (minority) despotic regimes susceptible to coups;
*Regimes ascend to – and lose – power through violence;
*Non-democratic regime-change;
*Kleptocracy;
*Violent intolerance (towards the “infidel” and fellow “believers”), internally and regionally, religiously, ethnically, ideologically and geographically;
*No intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, domestically or regionally;
*No Western-style human rights and democracy (no freedom of religion, speech, press, association).
Middle East context
The current tremor in Jordan is one of the ripple effects of the Arab Tsunami, which has rampaged the Arab Street since 2010/2011. The Arab Tsunami has been fueled by centuries of internal and regional ethnic, religious and ideological violence, exacerbated by hate-education, political corruption, despotism and human rights violations.
In fact, the 2021 reality in two of the historically most powerful Arab countries – Syria and Iraq – documents the fragility of Arab regimes. The violent collapse of the political order in Syria and Iraq has set them on a chaotic course of disintegration, delivering a glaring warning to every Arab regime.
Arab leaders who were perceived to be Rock of Gibraltar-like rulers, were violently overthrown. For example:
*Iraq’s King Faisal II was executed by the military in 1958, followed by the execution of General Qasim in 1963, and a military-Ba’athist regime, featuring Saddam Hussein, who officially assumed leadership in 1979 and was hung in 2006;
*Egypt’s King Farouk was toppled by Major General Naguib and Colonel Nasser in 1952, General Mubarak was deposed by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012/13, which was then forced out by General Sisi in 2013;
*Libya’s King Idris was ousted by Colonel Qadhafi in 1969, who was lynched by an Islamic mob in 2011, and succeeded by a series of civil wars which still linger on;
*Iran’s Shah was violently removed by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978/1979;
*Sudan’s military rulers were deposed by a coalition of military rebels, political activists and Islamists in 1964 and 1985, followed by a 1989 military coup by General Bashir. He was deposed by a joint military-civilian uprising in 2019, which led to a fragmented civilian leadership, supported by some military elements and opposed by Islamist organizations;
*Yemen has experienced a series of civil wars and violent regime changes since 1962;
*Tunisia’s President Bourguiba was removed, in 1987, in a bloodless coup by President Ben Ali, who fled the country during a 2011 coup, which yielded a Muslim Brotherhood government.
The scope of intra-Arab/Muslim violence is documented by the 11 million Muslims killed via wars and terrorism since 1948, of which 35,000, (0.3%) died during the Arab wars against Israel, or one out of every 315 fatalities.
Approximately 500,000 Syrians have been killed since the March 2011 eruption of the civil war, in addition to some 7 million refugees. Two million Sudanese were killed, and 4 million displaced, during the 1983-2011 genocidal civil war. 200,000 Algerians were killed during the 1991-2006 civil war. One million people were killed during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. 300,000 Iraqis were killed by Saddam Hussein, in addition to the 150,000 killed by Bin Laden’s carnage in Iraq. 200,000 Lebanese were killed in internal violence – inflamed by Palestinian terrorism – during the 1970s and 1980s. 80,000 Iranians were killed during the 1978/79 Islamic revolution and more are executed and decapitated routinely by Iran’s Ayatollahs.
The bottom line
According to Prof. Fouad Ajami, the late Director of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, who was one of the leading Middle East scientists (The Arab Predicament): Middle East reality constitutes “a chronicle of illusions, despair and politics repeatedly degenerating into bloodletting.”
Thus, in the pursuit of peace, alliances and interests, well-meaning western policy-makers tend to sacrifice the perplexing Middle East reality upon the altar of convenience, oversimplification and wishful-thinking, which has fueled regional fires.
Connecting the dots of the boiling Arab Street exposes the systematic failure of well-intentioned peace negotiators, who mistake the Arab Tsunami for a liberty and democracy-driven Arab Spring. They believe that a signed agreement can override a 14-century-old shifty and devious political culture. They ignore the fact that intra-Arab conflicts – not the Arab-Israeli conflict – have been “the Middle East conflicts,” and that the Palestinian issue has never been a core cause of regional turbulence, neither a crown-jewel of Arab policy making, nor the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Connecting dots in the Middle East reaffirms the non-Western security requirements for Israel, which must withstand the (Middle East) worst-case-scenario, not the (Western) best-case scenario. Hence, security requirements must respond to relatively-frequent and unpredictable occasions, when peace accords are abrogated. Moreover, security requirements must bolster Israel’s posture of deterrence in a region prone to transient regimes, policies and agreements.
Connecting the dots on the stormy Arab Street highlights Israel’s unique role as the only effective, reliable, unconditional, democratic and stable ally of the USA, whose military and technological capabilities have become a unique force-multiplier for the USA without the need to station additional GIs in the region, while producing for the US taxpayers an annual-rate-of-return of a few hundred percent on the US annual investment in Israel (erroneously defined as “foreign aid”).
The Saudi position
A brief expose’ of the Saudi position on the Israel-UAE and Israel-Bahrain peace treaties is provided by Salman Al-Dossary, the former editor-in-chief of the influential Saudi daily, Asharq al-Awsat, which reflects the worldview of the Saudi royal family:
“The angry [Palestinian] reaction has confirmed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was right in its sovereign decision to search for its vision of peace in the Middle East…. The feverish [Palestinian] attack on the new Bahrain-Israel peace agreement confirms not just to Bahrain, but to the rest of the Gulf that the support for the [Palestinian] cause for long decades has resulted in nothing but [Palestinian] aggression, attack and ingratitude…. There is more than one door to peace, not necessarily through the Palestinian Authority….
“In 2011, when Bahrain [a generous supporter of the Palestinians] faced the most dangerous threat [attempted coup] in its modern history… Iran stood behind that coup attempt… while the leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian components continued to strengthen their relationship with Tehran…. Not a single Palestinian demonstration in support of Bahrain took place….
“The relations with Tel Aviv… are a necessity in light of the current circumstances and the search for peace and stability….”
Current circumstances in the Middle East
While political correctness has been preoccupied and infatuated with the Palestinian issue, the recent peace agreements have shed light on the following Middle East reality:
Israel’s regional posture of deterrence and global high tech prominence have motivated the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to conclude the August 13, 2020 peace accord with Israel. The same Israeli features have prompted the pro-US Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as Jordan and Egypt, to dramatically expand their security and commercial cooperation with Israel.
The UAE considers strategic cooperation with Israel, in general, and the peace accord, in particular, a critical added-value to its line of defense (second only to the US) against lethal threats such as Iran’s conventional and terror offensive, persistent Muslim Brotherhood terrorism, ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorism, Turkey’s operational and logistic support of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s military base (5,000 soldiers) in the pro-Iran Qatar. The UAE, as well as all other pro-US Arab regimes, recognize Israel as the most effective and reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.
These rogue elements have become regional and global epicenters of Islamic terrorism and drug trafficking in Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe, North and Central Africa, South and Central America, with sleeper cells in the US.
Israel’s posture of deterrence and growing cooperation with all pro-US Arab regimes has spared the US the need to deploy more aircraft carriers and ground forces in the Middle East and neighboring regions.
The UAE has become a leader in the Arab battle against global Islamic terrorism (following years of UAE financing Islamic terrorism), targeting 82 Islamic terror organizations, which operate in Germany, Norway, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, the Persian Gulf, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, etc.
The UAE values Israel as a unique source of counter-terrorism intelligence, planning, training and supply of advanced counter-terrorism systems.
The UAE is the second largest economy in the Middle East, with the 7th largest proven oil reserves in the world, and very successful in transitioning its economy from an oil-based (mostly Abu-Dhabi) to a diversified economy (mostly Dubai). Therefore, the UAE regards Israel’s achievements in commercial high tech, agriculture, irrigation, medicine and health as a useful platform to bolster the diversification of the economies of its seven federated Emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm al Quwain.
Since the UAE and Israel share significant geo-strategic challenges and threats, the UAE is anxious to leverage Israel’s positive standing among the US population, in general, and among US Senators and House Representatives, in particular.
The official UAE announcement of the peace accord highlights the wide gap between Arab talk and Arab walk. Thus, the intangible UAE talk stipulated that the normalization of ties with Israel aims at halting the application of Israel’s law to the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). However, the tangible UAE walk involves a substantial enhancement of security and commercial cooperation with Israel, notwithstanding the rough Palestinian protestation.
The UAE decision to establish official peace with Israel, while there is no progress on the Israel-Palestinian front, documents the Arab walk on the Palestinian issue, which is considered very low – and even negative – in their order of priorities.
The secondary/marginal role of the Palestinian issue on the intra-Arab agenda – irrespective of the pro-Palestinian Arab talk – was also evidenced by the 1979 Israel-Egypt and 1994 Israel-Jordan peace accords. It was also evident by the enhancement of Israel’s geo-strategic ties with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait, in defiance of Palestinian objections and threats.
Contrary to Western conventional wisdom, Israel should not suspend/expunge the decision to apply its law to the Jordan Valley and the over-powering mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria as a gesture to the UAE. The UAE decision was not driven by philo-Israel sentiments, but by UAE national security priorities, which does not require an Israeli gesture, that devastates Israel’s own regional posture of deterrence and national security.
Moreover, the aim of the UAE-Israel peace treaty is to deter rogue regimes, minimize regional instability and enhance the national security of the UAE and all other pro-US Arab regimes.
Thus, Israel’s control of the Jordan Valley and the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria constitutes a prerequisite for its effective posture of deterrence, which has played a critical role in deterring anti-US rogue elements throughout the Middle East, from Iran to the Mediterranean and North Africa. Furthermore, it has reduced lethal threats to the pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan and to the pro-US regimes in the Arabian Peninsula south of Jordan.
The UAE walk – not the UAE talk – suggests that the US and Israel should not base their national security policy on the philo-Palestinian Arab talk, which misrepresents Middle East reality. Responsible policy should be based on the Arab walk, which reflects the secondary/marginal role of the Palestinian issue in the reality of the Middle East.
Moreover, responsible policy requires tenacity and decisiveness – not hesitancy and indecision- when it comes to the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria, the cradle of Jewish history, culture, religion and language.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
April 26, 2026
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
April 26, 2026
*500,000 Arabs (away for over a year) are included in the census, contrary to global norms. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census. 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. 100,000 overseas births added to the census in 1995-2014, according to the Palestinian Undersecretary of Interior. The number grows steadily due to births.
*380,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows steadily due to births.
*Over 200,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly counted. The number expands steadily due to births.
*A 447,000 net-emigration of West Bank Arabs (since the 1997 Palestinian census) is ignored by the Palestinian Authority. In recent years, a 20,000 annual average net-emigration has been documented by Israel’s Population and Migration Authority in land, air and sea international passages.
*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.
*The Judea & Samaria Arab (West Bank) fertility rate declined from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to less than 3 births in 2026, reflecting a sweeping urbanization, a growing female enrollment in higher education, rising marriage age, increased use of contraceptives and youth’s emigration.
*The number of deaths is under-reported for political and financial reasons.
*An artificial inflation of 1.75 million documents a population of 1.5 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, not the official 3.25 million.
In January 2026: a 69% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel, benefitting from a tailwind of fertility and net-immigration, while Arab demography is westernized.
No Arab demographic time bomb; but, a Jewish demographic momentum.
More data in these articles and this short video.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
September 3, 2026
*The assumption that “D-Day” like economic sanctions can force the collapse – or a dramatic moderation – of the Ayatollah regime, overlooks the centrality of theological fanaticism in the shaping of the Ayatollah’s vision, strategy, policy and education system, as well as its 47-year-war on the US. The Ayatollah’s war against the USA has been conducted – unrelated to Israel’s existence – in the Middle East, Latin America and on US soil.
*47 years of US-led economic sanctions and negotiation have transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a leading anti-US epicenter of war, terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering. Moreover, it has catapulted the Ayatollah regime from a secondary/tertiary power in 1979 to a global power in 2026, with a strategic footprint from the Persian Gulf through Africa to Latin America and the US homeland.
*Furthermore, economic sanctions and negotiation have bolstered the Ayatollah’s tactic of stalling for time, expecting the mid-term election to weaken President Trump, diverting his attention away from international issues, softening US policy toward Iran, and leading to a non-hawkish Administration in Washington.
*The assumption that the Ayatollah regime is driven by the Western “Money Talks,” ignores the fact that in Tehran Ideology Walks, outweighing financial and diplomatic inducements.
*Refraining from regime-change in Iran has been interpreted – regionally and globally – as indecision and weakness, benefitting China, Russia and North Korea, emboldening them to expand their strategic footprint throughout the globe, including Latin America. The focus on the cost of regime-change has led to underestimating the following catastrophic cost of no-regime-change:
^Eventual emergence of the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power;
^Erosion of the US posture of deterrence;
^Emboldened Ayatollah regime, China, Russia and anti-US Islamic terrorism; ^Growing instability of pro-US Arab regimes, especially the oil-producing; ^Frustrated Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait getting closer to China and Russia.
*The apocalyptic nature of the Ayatollah regime has produced exceptional resilience in the face of economic and military adversity. The entrenched belief in a cataclysmic divine intervention is embedded in the Ayatollah’s Constitution, school curriculum (which is the most authentic reflection of the Ayatollah’s state of mind), mosque sermons and official media. Thus, the Ayatollah is mandated to conduct Jihad (Holy War), bring the “infidel” West to submission, and expand the Islamic Revolution globally. This must be stained with “infidel” blood, requiring “believers” to assume suffering and martyrdom. These are actionable and operational doctrines, culminating in chaos and conflict, paving the way for the Deliverance – the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, who disappeared in the 10th century, and is currently represented by the Ayatollah, the “Supreme Leader.” In 2026, Iran’s Twelver Shia is embraced by a vast majority of Shia Muslims: a 60% majority in Iraq, 35% minority in Lebanon and a 12% minority in Saudi Arabia, mostly in the oil-rich Eastern Province. Martyrdom has been underscored by Islam, with martyrs promised a place in heaven, as documented in Quran 3: 169-171 – “Never think of those martyred in the cause of Allah as dead; they are alive with their Lord, well provided for….” It has been supplemented by Ayatollah Khomeini’s legacy, which has promoted the deliberate-martyrdom (Istishhad), heralding “the great martyr Imam Husayn ibn Ali,” who was killed in the 680 AD Battle of Karbala. In fact, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)has incorporated the Mahdist apocalyptic ideology into its training programs, preparing the ground for the Mahdi’s return, and confronting the “apostate” Sunnis and the “infidel” West.
*The “Economy of Resistance” has resulted in a 60% control of the Iranian economy by the IRGC and state-linked foundations, featuring black-market smuggling, illicit land and sea oil trade, and bypass mechanisms, consolidating the domestic economy into the hands of the ruling apparatus.
*The “axis of sanctions evasion/circumvention” has leveraged Chinese, Russian and North Korean anti-US strategy, including deep barter and non-dollar trade systems, Chinese purchase of discounted Iranian crude via land, export via the Caspian Sea ports, “ghost fleets” and third-party (trade-triangulation), shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers, while Russia trades critical military hardware, satellite intelligence, and nuclear technology in exchange for Iranian drones and ballistic systems. 47 years of economic sanctions have developed deep Iranian institutional expertise in sanction evasion.
*When applied to totalitarian, ideologically-entrenched regimes – certainly apocalyptic regimes – economic sanctions have caused severe hardship on the population (not the regime!), but have failed to generate either regime moderation, or regime collapse. For example, the 1979-2026 US and UN maximum-pressure-economic-sanctions against the apocalyptic Ayatollah regime has resulted in expanded commercial and military Iranian capabilities, and exacerbated the repression of protestors and religious and ethnic minorities; the 1990-2003 UN economic boycott and oil embargo against Iraq’s non-apocalyptic Saddam Hussein resulted in intensifying domestic oppression; the 1950s-2026 US/UN financial and trade embargoes activated against the non-apocalyptic North Korea have yielded famine, upgraded thermonuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as more ruthless despotism; the 1960-2026 US trade and financial embargo on the non-apocalyptic Cuba, has resulted in severe economic decline and a more brutal central authority; the 2022-2026 comprehensive Western sanctions against the non-apocalyptic Russia rerouted energy trade to Asia, transitioned Russia to a wartime economy controlled by Putin’s solid authority, but has failed to stop or slowdown the war against Ukraine.
*Economic measures alone have failed to induce ideologically entrenched, survival-at-all-cost, ruthless, apocalyptic regimes to abandon their core theological or strategic imperatives. They never considered sacrificing their ideology and strategy on the altar of an abundant windfall. In the arm-wrestling with the Ayatollah regime, “Money Talks” has been resoundingly defeated by “Ideology Walks.”
*Economic sanctions and negotiation do not substitute for regime change. They reinforce the Ayatollah regime, and undermine the strategic posture of the US, which is exposed as a sprinter, unable to sustain a required marathon. Sustaining such a US policy threatens the existence of all its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf and throughout the Middle East, who have had the machete of the Ayatollah at their throats since 1979.
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
February 27, 2024
Secretary of State Antony Blinken represents conventional wisdom when claiming that “It’s been longstanding US policy… that new settlements are… inconsistent with international law.”
However, conventional wisdom is frequently demolished by the march of facts.
For instance:
*According to Prof. Eugene Rostow, who was the co-author of the November 22, 1967 UN Security Council Resolution 242, served as Undersecretary of State and was the Dean of Yale University Law School: “Jews have the same right to settle in the West Bank as they have in Haifa.”
*According to UN Resolution 242, Israel is required to withdraw from territories, not the territories, nor from all the territories, but some of the territories, which included Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. Moreover, according to Prof. Rostow, “resolutions calling for withdrawal from all the territories were defeated in the Security Council and the General Assembly…. Israel was not to be forced back to the fragile and vulnerable [9-15 mile-wide] lines… but to secure and recognized boundaries, agreed to by the parties…. In making peace with Egypt in 1979, Israel withdrew from the entire Sinai… [which amounts to] more than 90% of the territories occupied in 1967….”
*Former President of the International Court of Justice, Judge Stephen M. Schwebel, stated: “Between Israel, acting defensively in 1948 and 1967 (according to Article 52 of the UN Charter), on the one hand, and her Arab neighbors, acting aggressively in 1948 and 1967, on the other, Israel has better title in the territory of what was [British Mandate] Palestine…. It follows that modifications of the 1949 armistice lines among those States within former Palestinian territory are lawful…. [The 1967] Israeli conquest of territory was defensive rather than aggressive… [as] indicated by Egypt’s prior closure of the Straits of Tiran, blockade of the Israeli port of Eilat, and the amassing of [Egyptian] troops in Sinai, coupled with its ejection of the UN Emergency Force…[and] Jordan’s initiated hostilities against Israel…. The 1948 Arab invasion of the nascent State of Israel further demonstrated that Egypt’s seizure of the Gaza Strip, and Jordan’s seizure and subsequent annexation of the West Bank and the old city of Jerusalem, were unlawful….”
*The legal status of Judea and Samaria is embedded in the following 4 authoritative, binding, internationally-ratified documents, which recognize the area for what it has been: the cradle of Jewish history, culture, language, aspirations and religion.
(I) The November 2, 1917 Balfour Declaration, issued by Britain, calling for “the establishment in Palestine (a synonym to the Land of Israel) of a national home for the Jewish people….”
(II) The April 24, 1920 resolution, by the post-First World War San Remo Peace Conference of the Allied Powers Supreme Council, entrusted both sides of the Jordan River to the British Mandate for Palestine, for the reestablishment of the Jewish Commonwealth: “the Mandatory will be responsible for putting into effect the [Balfour] declaration originally made on November 2, 1917, by the Government of His Britannic Majesty, and adopted by the said Powers, in favor of the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.” It was one of over 20 Mandates (trusteeships) established following WW1, responsible for the boundaries of most Arab countries.
(III) The July 24, 1922 Mandate for Palestine was ratified by the Council of the League of Nations, entrusted Britain to establish a Jewish state in the entire area west of the Jordan River, as demonstrated by its 6th article: “[to] encourage… close settlement by Jews on the land, including State lands and waste lands….” The Mandate was dedicated exclusively to Jewish national rights, while guaranteeing the civic rights of all other religious and ethnic groups. On July 23, 1923, the Ottoman Empire signed the Treaty of Lausanne, which included the Mandate for Palestine.
(IV) The October 24, 1945 Article 80 of the UN Charter incorporated the Mandate for Palestine into the UN Charter. Accordingly, the UN or any other entity cannot transfer Jewish rights in Palestine – including immigration and settlement – to any other party. According to Article 80 of the UN Charter and the Mandate for Palestine, the 1967 war of self-defense returned Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria to its legal owner, the Jewish state. Legally and geo-strategically the rules of “belligerent occupation” do not apply Israel’s presence in Judea and Samaria, since they are not “foreign territory,” and Jordan did not have a legitimate title over the West Bank. Moreover, the rules of “belligerent occupation” do not apply in view of the 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty. The 1950-67 Jordanian occupation of Judea and Samaria violated international law and was recognized only by Britain and Pakistan.
*The 1949 4th Geneva Convention prohibits the forced transfer of populations to areas previously occupied by a legitimate sovereign power. However, Israel has not forced Jews to settle in Judea and Samaria, and Jordan’s sovereignty there was never legal.
*The November 29, 1947 UN General Assembly Partition Resolution 181 was a recommendation, lacking legal stature, superseded by the Mandate for Palestine. The 1949 Armistice (non-peace) Agreements between Israel and its neighbors delineated “non-territorial boundaries.”
*The term “Palestine” was a Greek and then a Roman attempt (following the 135 CE Jewish rebellion) to eradicate Jews and Judaism from human memory. It substituted “Israel, Judea and Samaria” with “Palaestina,” a derivative of the Philistines, an arch enemy of the Jewish people, whose origin was not in Arabia, but in the Greek Aegian islands.
*The aforementioned march of facts demonstrates that Secretary Blinken’s conventional wisdom on the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria is based on gross misperceptions and misrepresentations, which fuels infidelity to law, undermining the pursuit of peace.
*More on the legality of Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria in this article by George Mason University Law School Prof. Eugene Kontrovich.
US departure from the recognition of a United Jerusalem as the exclusive capital of the Jewish State, and the site of the US Embassy to Israel, would be consistent with the track record of the State Department, which has been systematically wrong on Middle East issues, such as its opposition to the establishment of the Jewish State; stabbing the back of the pro-US Shah of Iran and Mubarak of Egypt, and pressuring the pro-US Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while courting the anti-US Ayatollahs of Iran, Saddam Hussein, Arafat, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and the Houthis of Yemen; transforming Libya into a platform of global Islamic terrorism and civil wars; etc..
However, such departure would violate US law, defy a 3,000 year old reality – documented by a litany of archeological sites and a multitude of documents from Biblical time until today – spurn US history and geography, and undermine US national and homeland security.
United Jerusalem and the US law
Establishing a US Consulate General in Jerusalem – which would be a de facto US Embassy to the Palestinian Authority – would violate the Jerusalem Embassy Act, which became US law on November 8, 1995 with substantially more than a veto-override majority on Capitol Hill.
According to the Jerusalem Embassy Act, which enjoys massive support among the US population and, therefore, in both chambers of Congress:
“Jerusalem should remain an undivided city in which the rights of every ethnic and religious group are protected….
“Jerusalem should be recognized as the capital of the state of Israel; and the United States Embassy in Israel should be established in Jerusalem….
“In 1990, Congress unanimously adopted Senate Concurrent Resolution 106, which declares that Congress ‘strongly believes that Jerusalem must remain an undivided city in which the rights of every ethnic and religious group are protected….’
“In 1992, the United States Senate and House of Representatives unanimously adopted Senate Concurrent Resolution 113… to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the reunification of Jerusalem, and reaffirming Congressional sentiment that Jerusalem must remain an undivided city….
“In 1996, the state of Israel will celebrate the 3,000th anniversary of the Jewish presence in Jerusalem since King David’s entry….
“The term ‘United States Embassy’ means the offices of the United States diplomatic mission and the residence of the United States chief of mission.”
United Jerusalem and the legacy of the Founding Fathers
The US Early Pilgrims and Founding Fathers were inspired – in their unification of the 13 colonies – by King David’s unification of the 12 Jewish tribes into a united political entity, and establishing Jerusalem as the capital city, which did not belong to any of the tribes (hence, Washington, DC does not belong to any state). King David entered Jerusalem 3,000 years before modern day US presidents entered the White House and 2,755 years before the US gained its independence.
The impact of Jerusalem on the US founders of the Federalist Papers, the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the Federalist system and overall civic life is reflected by the existence, in the US, of 18 Jerusalems (4 in Maryland; 2 in Vermont, Georgia and New York; and 1 in Ohio, Michigan, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alabama, Utah, Rhode Island and Tennessee), 32 Salems (the original Biblical name of Jerusalem) and many Zions (a Biblical synonym for Jerusalem and the Land of Israel). Moreover, in the US there are thousands of cities, towns, mountains, cliffs, deserts, national parks and streets bearing Biblical names.
The Jerusalem reality and US interests
Recognizing the Jerusalem reality and adherence to the 1995 Jerusalem Embassy Act – and the subsequent recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the site of the US Embassy to Israel – bolstered the US posture of deterrence in defiance of Arab/Islamic pressure and threats.
Contrary to the doomsday assessments by the State Department and the “elite” US media – which have been wrong on most Middle East issues – the May 2018 implementation of the 1995 law did not intensify Palestinian, Arab and Islamic terrorism. State Department “wise men” were equally wrong when they warned that Israel’s 1967 reunification of Jerusalem would ignite a worldwide anti-Israel and anti-US Islamic volcanic eruption.
Adherence to the 1995 law distinguishes the US President, Congress and most Americans from the state of mind of rogue regimes and terror organizations, the anti-US UN, the vacillating Europe, and the cosmopolitan worldview of the State Department, which has systematically played-down the US’ unilateral, independent and (sometimes) defiant national security action.
On the other hand, US procrastination on the implementation of the 1995 law – by Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama – eroded the US posture of deterrence, since it was rightly perceived by the world as appeasement in the face of pressure and threats from Arab/Muslim regimes and terrorists. As expected, it radicalized Arab expectations and demands, failed to advance the cause of Israel-Arab peace, fueled Islamic terrorism, and severely undermined US national and homeland security. For example, blowing up the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and murdering 224 persons in August 1998; blowing up the USS Cole destroyer in the port of Aden and murdering 17 US sailors in October 2000; the 9/11 Twin Towers massacre, etc.
Jerusalem and Israel’s defiance of US pressure
In 1949, President Truman followed Secretary of State Marshall’s policy, pressuring Israel to refrain from annexing West Jerusalem and to accept the internationalization of the ancient capital of the Jewish people.
in 1950, in defiance of brutal US and global pressure to internationalize Jerusalem, Prime Minister David Ben Gurion reacted constructively by proclaiming Jerusalem the capital of the Jewish State, relocating government agencies from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and settling tens of thousands of Olim (Jewish immigrants to Israel) in Jerusalem. He upgraded the transportation infrastructure to Jerusalem, erected new Jewish neighborhoods along the 1949 cease fire lines in Jerusalem, and provided the city land reserves for long-term growth.
In 1953, Ben Gurion rebuffed President Eisenhower’s pressure – inspired by Secretary of State Dulles – to refrain from relocating Israel’s Foreign Ministry from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
In 1967, President Johnson followed the advice of Secretary of State Rusk – who opposed Israel’s 1948 Declaration of Independence – highlighting the international status of Jerusalem, and warned Israel against the reunification of Jerusalem and construction in its eastern section. Prime Minister Levi Eshkol adopted Ben Gurion’s statesmanship, fended off the US pressure, reunited Jerusalem, built the first Jerusalem neighborhood beyond the 1949 ceasefire lines, Ramat Eshkol, in addition to the first wave of Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), the Jordan Valley and the Golan Heights.
In 1970, President Nixon collaborated with Secretary of State Rogers, attempting to repartition Jerusalem, pressuring Israel to relinquish control of Jerusalem’s Holy Basin, and to stop Israel’s plans to construct additional neighborhoods in eastern Jerusalem. However, Prime Minister Golda Meir refused to rescind the reunification of Jerusalem, and proceeded to lay the foundation for additional Jerusalem neighborhoods beyond the 1949 ceasefire lines: Gilo, Ramot Alon, French Hill and Neve’ Yaakov, currently home to 150,000 people.
In 1977-1992, Prime Ministers Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir defied US and global pressure, expanding construction in Jerusalem, sending a clear message: “Jerusalem is the exclusive and non-negotiable capital of Israel!”
“[In 1978], at the very end of [Prime Minister Begin’s] successful Camp David talks with President Jimmy Carter and President Anwar Sadat, literally minutes before the signing ceremony, the American president had approached [Begin] with ‘Just one final formal item.’ Sadat, said the president, was asking that Begin put his signature to a simple letter committing him to place Jerusalem on the negotiating table of the final peace accord. ‘I refused to accept the letter, let alone sign it,’ rumbled Begin. ‘If I forgot thee O Jerusalem, let my right hand forget its cunning,’ said [Begin] to the president of the United States of America, ‘and may my tongue cleave to my mouth’ (The Prime Ministers – An Intimate Portrait of Leaders of Israel, 2010)”
In 2021, Prime Minister Bennett should follow in the footsteps of Israel’s Founding Father, Ben Gurion, who stated: “Jerusalem is equal to the whole of the Land of Israel. Jerusalem is not just a central Jewish settlement. Jerusalem is an invaluable global historical symbol. The Jewish People and the entire world shall judge us in accordance with our steadfastness on Jerusalem (“We and Our Neighbors,” p. 175. 1929).”
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
September 17, 2026
More on Jewish holidays: Smashwords, Amazon
*Modeled on Yom Kippur and other Biblical fast days, the Early Pilgrims’ and Founding Fathers’ “Day of public humiliation, fasting and prayer” suspended business to confess collective wrongdoing and petition for mercy through soul-searching. Thus, the Second Continental Congress proclaimed a fast day on July 20, 1775, and repeated it through the war, calling for collective repentance and prayer to petition King George III to end the bloodshed, as the Revolutionary War began; President John Adams issued national fast days in 1798 and 1799; President James Madison did so during the War of 1812. General George Washington strictly enforced the religious observance and banned unnecessary labor and recreation for troops under his command.
*Yom Kippur is observed on the 10th day of the Jewish month of Tishrei, starting on the evening of September 20, 2026. It is referred to as a Super Sabbath (Shabbat Shabbaton in Hebrew), concluding 10 soul-searching days, personal and collective accountability spiritual self-awareness and self-enhancement, beginning on Rosh Hashanah, the first day of the Jewish year.
*Ten has a special significance in Jewish tradition: God’s abbreviation is the 10th Hebrew letter (Yod – י); the 10 Commandments; the 10 Plagues of Egypt; Yom Kippur on the 10th day of Tishrei; the 10 spheres of the spiritual universe, highlighting the Biblical Creation; 10 reasons for blowing the Shofar (ram’s horn) on Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur; the 10% Biblical gift to God (tithe); the 10th day of the Jewish month of Tevet commemorates the beginning of the 586-589 BCE siege of Jerusalem by the Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar; 10 Martyrs (Jewish leaders) were tortured/murdered by the Roman Empire; 10 generations between Adam and Noah and between Noah and Abraham; Abraham passed 10 divine tests; a 10-person-quorum (Minyan in Hebrew) is required for a collective Jewish prayer service; 10 sons of Haman and 10 Nazi leaders were hung; etc.
*According to Leviticus 23:26-32: “The Lord said to Moses, that the tenth day of this seventh month [Tishrei] is the Day of Atonement…. Do not do any work on that day…. This is a lasting ordinance for generations to come….” Yom Kippur highlights second-chance-eligibility and renewal through repentance, commemorating the day of divine forgiveness for the sin of worshipping the golden calf idol, and the introduction of the Moses-made second set of the Two Tablets (Ten Commandments). Mankind is urged to learn from mistakes, and refrain from the recurring human fallibility: the temptation to sacrifice spiritual values on the altar of convenience.
*The astrological sign of the months of Tishrei is Libra (♎), which symbolizes the scales of justice, truth, optimism, humility and tolerance. Libra is ruled by the planet Venus (Noga – נגהin Hebrew – is the name of my oldest granddaughter), which represents divine light and compassion.
*The Hebrew word Kippur [כיפור] means atonement/repentance – a derivative of the Biblical word Kaporet [כפורת], which was the dome/cover of the Holy Ark in the Sanctuary, and the word Kopher [כופר], which was the cover/dome of Noah’s Ark and the Holy Altar in the Jerusalem Temple.
Yom Kippur resembles a spiritual cover/dome, which separates between spiritualism and materialism/mundane. The Kippah [ [כיפהis the skullcap – a spiritual dome – which covers one’s head during prayers.
*Asking forgiveness of fellow human-beings is a major feature of Yom Kippur, transferring human behavior from acrimony and vindictiveness to forgiveness and peaceful coexistence. The wronged party must accept a sincere apology. Ritual alone does not substitute for repair. It is consistent with the philosophy of Hillel the Elder, a leading 1st century BCE Jewish Sage: “The essence of the Torah is: do not do unto your fellow person that which is hateful to you; the rest [of the Torah] is commentary.” Criminals and sinners are invited to participate in Yom Kippur services.
*Fasting is a key feature of Yom Kippur, reducing material pleasure in order to focus on one’s soul-searching, and enhancing empathy with the needy. The Hebrew spelling of fasting [צומ] is the root of the Hebrew word ((צמצומ for reducing and the Hebrew word for a camera’s focus (צמצמ).
However, Judaism opposes ascetism and self-torment, and therefore views genuine repentance as a critical engine of elevating individuals from despair to hope, from abuse to caring, from intolerance to tolerance, from violence to comity, from isolation to integration, from ignorance to knowledge and from forgetfulness to commemoration.
*There are six annual Jewish fasting days:
(a) The 10th day of the month of Tishrei is Yom Kippur.
(b) The 10th day of the month of Tevet commemorates the beginning of the 586-589 BCE siege of Jerusalem by the Babylonian King Nebuchadnezzar.
(c) The 17th day of the month of Tammuz commemorates the 586 BCE and 69 CE breaching of Jerusalem’s walls by the Babylonian and Roman Empires, as well as the breaking of the Tablets by Moses upon confronting the Golden Calf lapse of faith.
(d) The 9th day of the month of Av is the most calamitous day in Jewish history, commemorating the destruction of the first (586 BCE) and second (70 CE) Jewish Jerusalem Temples, by the Babylonian and Roman Empires respectively; the beginning of the Jewish exile from the Land of Israel; the Ten Spies’ bankruptcy of faith; the crushing of the 132-135 CE Bar Kokhbah Revolt by the Roman Emperor Adrianus (600,000 Jewish fatalities); the pogroms of the First Crusade (1096-1099) in Germany, France, Italy and Britain; the expulsion of the Jews from Britain (1290) and Spain (1492); the eruption of the First World War (1914); and the beginning of the 1942 deportation of Warsaw Ghetto Jews to the Treblinka extermination camp.
(e) The 3rd day of the month of Tishrei commemorates the murder of the Jewish Governor of Jerusalem, Gedalyah Ben Achikam, by another Jew, Yishmael Ben Netanyah (586 BCE).
(f) The 13th day of the month of Adar is the Fast of Queen Esther – one day before the Purim holiday – commemorating Queen Esther’s three-day-fast prior to her appeal to the Persian King Ahasuerus to refrain from exterminating the Jews (around 480 BCE).
*According to Judaism, the human tongue can be lethal, and therefore, ill-speaking of other people (“evil tongue” in Hebrew) may not be forgiven.
*Yom Kippur is concluded by blowing the Shofar (a ritual ram’s horn), which represents a moral wakeup-call, optimism, determination, humility and peace-through-strength (the peaceful ram deters enemies through its horns). The blowing of the Shofar commemorates the saving of Isaac by a ram; the receipt of the (second) Tablets/Ten Commandments at Mount Sinai (even the sin of the Golden Calf does not foreclose restoration); the re-entry to the Land of Israel and the conquest of Jericho by Joshua; as well as Gideon’s victory over the much larger Midianite military. The Hebrew word Shofar שופר]] means “to enhance,” “top quality,” glory and spiritual pleasure [שפר, שופרא].
*The Biblical Scroll of Jonah – which is the fifth book in The Twelve Prophets – is read on Yom Kippur, underscoring repentance, prayer/faith, justice and forgiveness. The Prophet Jonah (“dove” in Hebrew), son of Amitai (“truth” in Hebrew and the name of my 4th grandchild) transformed the sinful Assyrian population of Nineveh into a pious society; thus, displaying social responsibility.
*A Memorial Candle in memory of one’s parents is lit on Yom Kippur, reaffirming “Honor thy father and mother,” providing an opportunity to mend fences with – and ask forgiveness of – one’s parent(s).
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: US-Israel Initiative”
February 24, 2026
*While the United Arab Emirates uprooted all anti-Jewish and anti-Israel elements from its school curriculum, the Friday mosque sermons, and its official media – replacing them with pro-Jewish and pro-Israel elements – Qatar has sustained its anti-“infidel”, anti-Christian, anti-Jewish and anti-Israel school curriculum, consistent with its Friday incitement mosque sermons and controlled media.
*Are Qatar’s worldview and conduct consistent with the values and interests of the USA? Is Qatar’s policy consistent with the US’ attempts to end/minimize wars and terrorism? Does it qualify Qatar as an honest broker? Is Qatar a partner in the defense of Western democracies in the face of Sunni and Shiite Islamic terrorism?
*Qatar’s shifty diplomatic pronouncements (Talk) has been incompatible with Qatar’s permanent school curriculum (Walk), which reflects most authentically its worldview, values, vision and conduct. It reflects and shapes the minds of Qatar’s ruling minority (10%-15%), and is fully-controlled by the ruler (Emir), Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who oppresses the 85%-90% majority of foreign workers.
*A February 2026 review of Qatar’s 2025-26 school curriculum, conducted by Impact-se, documents “anti-semitic narratives, religious intolerance toward non-Muslims, and legitimization of violent jihad,… demonstrating no substantive curricular reform since the 2021–2022 school year….
“In July 2024, the US Department of State’s Annual Report on International Religious Freedom criticized Qatar’s national curriculum for continuing to ‘include content that was antisemitic in nature.’ Despite this, the same material was reprinted and continues to be taught in the 2025–2026 school year….
“Disrespect towards non-Muslims is expressed through terminology such as ‘Infidels’ and ‘pagans/polytheists,’ through derogatory portrayals of non-Muslims, and through discussions of punishment for disbelief in Islam…. Non-Islamic nations such as the US and European countries are occasionally treated with suspicion….
“Textbooks continue to teach antisemitic content…. portraying Jews as materialistic, arrogant, deceitful, and hostile to Islam. Jews are further associated with traits such as lying, scheming, fleeing in fear, spreading discord, breaching agreements, and excessive attachment to material wealth, thereby reinforcing an image of Jews as fundamentally untrustworthy…. Antisemitic tropes depict Jews as cynically manipulating global affairs… denying Jewish historical ties to Israel/Palestine and the right to self-determination….
“Violent interpretations of jihad prevail as religious ideals…. Textbooks praise the upbringing of children ‘to love jihad,’ and students are taught that God rewards those who fight and die for Islam by granting them entry into Paradise….
“Israel’s establishment is framed as occupation…. Israel is erased from maps, and normalization is condemned…. Poems exhort students to draw swords, engage in jihad, and sacrifice their lives fighting against ‘the Zionist enemy….’
For example:
*Islamic Education, Grade 11, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, p. 46 condemns Christianity and Judaism as religions which “have been corrupted”, and that polytheistic elements “have been inserted into them.”
*Islamic Education, Grade 8, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 124, 129 presents two possible infinite outcomes one can expect when dying: Muslims (“Believers”) will reside in Heaven; non-Muslims (“Infidels”) will suffer in Hell.
*Islamic Education, Grade 10, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 18–19 “accuses Jews of failing to uphold the Torah they were given by Allah…. instructing students to specifically avoid ‘resembling Jews….”
*Islamic Education, Grade 8, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 26–28 suggests that “Moses and Jesus are both Islamic prophets who were initially rejected by their people, according to the Qur’an…. Jews are evil…. The Jewish people are forever cursed by Allah…. None is more evil than people who have been invited to Islam and rejected it….”
*Islamic Education, Grade 8, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 70–71. A chapter about the Battle of Khaybar, fought between the Muslim forces of the Prophet Muhammad and the Jewish Arabian tribe of Banu Nadir… portrays the Jewish people as inherently hostile to Islam and Muslims. A repeated emphasis on the Jewish nature as historic enemies of Muslims…”
*Islamic Education, Grade 6, Vol. 2, 2025–2026, p. 139. “An Islamic education lesson teaches that one of the ways to measure a good Muslim woman is raising children to sacrifice their lives [martyrdom], in what is understood to be violent Jihad.”
*Islamic Education, Grade 8, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 72–73 teaches the Battle of Khaybar, fought between the forces of the Prophet Muhammad and the ancient Jewish Arabian tribe of Banu Nadir in 629 CE, concluded by teaching students that the sublime goal of Jihad is to bring non-Muslims to convert to Islam.
*Islamic Education, Grade 8, Vol. 1, 2025–2026, pp. 22, 25, 28, 103 teaches that God loves Jihad warriors who “fight” (yuqātilūn) for His sake, favoring a violent interpretation of Jihad. God defends Islam against the non-Islamic world.
The bottom line: A prerequisite for Qatar’s constructive role in advancing peace and combatting terror isa thorough structural overhaul of its prevailing culture, which is preconditioned upon the uprooting of its hate and terror-driven school curriculum.
