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Demographic Implosion in Moslem Societies

 Simultaneously with the collapse of the global economy – and away from media attention – there has been an unprecedented collapse of Muslim demography in the world at-large and between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean in particular.  Such a demographic development directly impacts critical policy considerations, which determine the future of the Jewish State.  Overlooking that development, and its implications, undermines the national security of the Jewish State.

 

The UN Population Division reports a sharp decline of fertility rates (number of births per woman) in Muslim and Arab countries, excluding Afghanistan and Yemen.

 

The myth of “doubling population every 20 years” has been shattered against the cliffs of demography.  The Director General of UNESCO, Koichiro Matsuura, stated – during a UNESCO conference on “Population: From Explosion to Implosion” – that “there is an abrupt slowdown in the rate of growth…also in many countries where women have only limited access to education and employment…There is not the slightest reason to assume that the decline in fertility will miraculously stop just at replacement level (2.1 births per woman)…Before 2000, the young always outnumbered their elders; for some years now it has been the other way around.” 

 

The collapse of fertility rates in Muslim countries is a derivative of modernization/Westernization, rapid urbanization and internal security concern by dictators, fearing the consequences of the widening gap between population growth and economic growth.  As a result, the UN Population Division has reduced its 2050 population projections by 25% from 12 billion to 9 billion, possibly shrinking to 7.4 billion.  For instance, the fertility rate in Iran – the flagship of radical Islam – has declined from 9 births per woman, 30 years ago, to 1.8 births in 2007.  The Muslim religious establishment has also played a key role in decreasing fertility rates in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from 8 and 7 births per woman 30 years ago, to less than 4 and less than 2.5 in 2007 respectively. Jordan – which is demographically close to Judea and Samaria – and Syria have demonstrated a diminished fertility rates from 8, 30 years ago, to less than 3.5 in 2007.  A substantial dive of fertility rates in Muslim countries – trending toward 2 births per woman – is documented by the Population Resource Center in Washington, DC.  And, according to demographic precedents, there is a very slight probability of resurrecting high fertility rates following a sustained period of significant reduction.

 

The Bennett Zimmerman-led American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG) has documented a similar demographic trend among the Arab population of Judea and Samaria (currently 4 births per woman and trending downward). The decline in fertility and population growth rates has resulted from escalating emigration (which has characterized the region since 1950!), accelerated urbanization (70% rural in 1967 and 60% urban in 2008), the expansion of education infrastructure especially among women, the entrenchment of career mentality, the increase of median-marriage-age, an all time high divorce rate, the contraction of teen-age-pregnancy and the UNRWA/PA-led family planning campaign.

 

The sharp lowering of fertility rate among “Green Line” (pre-1967 Israel) Arabs, from 9 births per woman in 1969 to 3.5 in 2007, has been the outcome of their successful integration into Israel’s education, employment, commerce, health, banking, cultural, political and sports infrastructures. The annual number of Arab births stabilized at approximately 39,000 between 1995-2007.  The Arab fertility rate converges swiftly toward the Jewish fertility rate (2.8 births per woman). 

 

On the other hand, Israel‘s Jewish demography has been non-normative as far as the impact of education and income levels on the level of fertility rates. The annual number of Jewish births (including the Olim/immigrants from the former USSR, who have yet to be recognized as Jews by the Rabbinate) rose by 40% between 1995-2007.  The number of Jewish births has increased from 69% of total births in 1995 to 74% in 2006 and 75% in 2007. The secular sector – and particularly the Olim from the former Soviet Union – has been by and large responsible for such an impressive rise.  The Jewish demographic tailwind is bolstered by the (highly under-utilized) potential of Aliya/immigration – which has increased due to the global economic collapse – from the former USSR, USA, West Europe, Latin America, South Africa, etc.

 

Recent demographic trends bode well for the solid, long-term Jewish majority of 67% in the “Green Line” and in Judea and Samaria, compared with a 33% and 8% Jewish minority in 1947 and 1900 respectively between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean.

 

Israel‘s policy-makers and public opinion-molders should base their assessments on thoroughly-documented demographic optimism and not on baseless demographic fatalism, in order to avoid erroneous assumptions, which yield erroneous and self-destructive policy decisions. 




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2023 Inflated Palestinian Demography

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has audited the Palestinian data since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 150,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*A 390,000 Arab net-emigration from Judea & Samaria is excluded from the Palestinian census, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950.   For example, 15,466 in 2022, 26,357 – 2019, 15,173 – 2017 and 24,244 – 2014, as documented by Israel’s Population and Migration Authority (exits and entries) in all the land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 3.02 births in 2021, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been under-reported (since the days of the British Mandate) for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.4 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2023: a 69% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897: a 39% and 9% Jewish minority. In 2023, a 69% Jewish majority benefiting from fertility tailwind and net-immigration.  Arab fertility is Westernized, and Arab net-emigration from Judea and Samaria.  No Arab demographic time bomb. A Jewish demographic momentum.

    More data in this article and this short video.
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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb