Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
September 3, 2026

*The assumption that “D-Day” like economic sanctions can force the collapse – or a dramatic moderation – of the Ayatollah regime, overlooks the centrality of theological fanaticism in the shaping of the Ayatollah’s vision, strategy, policy and education system, as well as its 47-year-war on the US. The Ayatollah’s war against the USA has been conducted – unrelated to Israel’s existence – in the Middle East, Latin America and on US soil.

*47 years of US-led economic sanctions and negotiation have transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a leading anti-US epicenter of war, terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering.  Moreover, it has catapulted the Ayatollah regime from a secondary/tertiary power in 1979 to a global power in 2026, with a strategic footprint from the Persian Gulf through Africa to Latin America and the US homeland.

*Furthermore, economic sanctions and negotiation have bolstered the Ayatollah’s tactic of stalling for time, expecting the mid-term election to weaken President Trump, diverting his attention away from international issues, softening US policy toward Iran, and leading to a non-hawkish Administration in Washington.

*The assumption that the Ayatollah regime is driven by the Western “Money Talks,” ignores the fact that in Tehran Ideology Walks, outweighing financial and diplomatic inducements.

*Refraining from regime-change in Iran has been interpreted – regionally and globally – as indecision and weakness, benefitting China, Russia and North Korea, emboldening them to expand their strategic footprint throughout the globe, including Latin America.  The focus on the cost of regime-change has led to underestimating the following catastrophic cost of no-regime-change:

^Eventual emergence of the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power;
^Erosion of the US posture of deterrence;
^Emboldened Ayatollah regime, China, Russia and anti-US Islamic terrorism; ^Growing instability of pro-US Arab regimes, especially the oil-producing; ^Frustrated Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait getting closer to China and Russia.

*The apocalyptic nature of the Ayatollah regime has produced exceptional resilience in the face of economic and military adversity.  The entrenched belief in a cataclysmic divine intervention is embedded in the Ayatollah’s Constitution, school curriculum (which is the most authentic reflection of the Ayatollah’s state of mind), mosque sermons and official media.  Thus, the Ayatollah is mandated to conduct Jihad (Holy War), bring the “infidel” West to submission, and expand the Islamic Revolution globally. This must be stained with “infidel” blood, requiring “believers” to assume suffering and martyrdom.  These are actionable and operational doctrines, culminating in chaos and conflict, paving the way for the Deliverance – the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, who disappeared in the 10th century, and is currently represented by the Ayatollah, the “Supreme Leader.” In 2026, Iran’s Twelver Shia is embraced by a vast majority of Shia Muslims: a 60% majority in Iraq, 35% minority in Lebanon and a 12% minority in Saudi Arabia, mostly in the oil-rich Eastern Province. Martyrdom has been underscored by Islam, with martyrs promised a place in heaven, as documented in Quran 3: 169-171 – “Never think of those martyred in the cause of Allah as dead; they are alive with their Lord, well provided for….” It has been supplemented by Ayatollah Khomeini’s legacy, which has promoted the deliberate-martyrdom (Istishhad), heralding “the great martyr Imam Husayn ibn Ali,” who was killed in the 680 AD Battle of Karbala.  In fact, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)has incorporated the Mahdist apocalyptic ideology into its training programs, preparing the ground for the Mahdi’s return, and confronting the “apostate” Sunnis and the “infidel” West.

*The “Economy of Resistance” has resulted in a 60% control of the Iranian economy by the IRGC and state-linked foundations, featuring black-market smuggling, illicit land and sea oil trade, and bypass mechanisms, consolidating the domestic economy into the hands of the ruling apparatus.

*The “axis of sanctions evasion/circumvention” has leveraged Chinese, Russian and North Korean anti-US strategy, including deep barter and non-dollar trade systems, Chinese purchase of discounted Iranian crude via land, export via the Caspian Sea ports, “ghost fleets” and third-party (trade-triangulation), shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers, while Russia trades critical military hardware, satellite intelligence, and nuclear technology in exchange for Iranian drones and ballistic systems. 47 years of economic sanctions have developed deep Iranian institutional expertise in sanction evasion.

*When applied to totalitarian, ideologically-entrenched regimes – certainly apocalyptic regimes – economic sanctions have caused severe hardship on the population (not the regime!), but have failed to generate either regime moderation, or regime collapse. For example, the 1979-2026 US and UN maximum-pressure-economic-sanctions against the apocalyptic Ayatollah regime has resulted in expanded commercial and military Iranian capabilities, and exacerbated the repression of protestors and religious and ethnic minorities; the 1990-2003 UN economic boycott and oil embargo against Iraq’s non-apocalyptic Saddam Hussein resulted in intensifying domestic oppression; the 1950s-2026 US/UN financial and trade embargoes activated against the non-apocalyptic North Korea have yielded famine, upgraded thermonuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as more ruthless despotism; the 1960-2026 US trade and financial embargo on the non-apocalyptic Cuba, has resulted in severe economic decline and a more brutal central authority; the 2022-2026 comprehensive Western sanctions against the non-apocalyptic Russia rerouted energy trade to Asia, transitioned Russia to a wartime economy controlled by Putin’s solid authority, but has failed to stop or slowdown the war against Ukraine.

*Economic measures alone have failed to induce ideologically entrenched, survival-at-all-cost, ruthless, apocalyptic regimes to abandon their core theological or strategic imperatives. They never considered sacrificing their ideology and strategy on the altar of an abundant windfall. In the arm-wrestling with the Ayatollah regime, “Money Talks” has been resoundingly defeated by “Ideology Walks.”

*Economic sanctions and negotiation do not substitute for regime change. They reinforce the Ayatollah regime, and undermine the strategic posture of the US, which is exposed as a sprinter, unable to sustain a required marathon. Sustaining such a US policy threatens the existence of all its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf and throughout the Middle East, who have had the machete of the Ayatollah at their throats since 1979.  

Support Appreciated

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
August 5, 2026

*Anti-Americanism is expressed by the Ayatollah regime’s Constitution, school curriculum, mosque sermons and official media, explicitly and through ideologically loaded terms such as “Global Arrogance” or “World Oppression” (Istikbar-e Jahani) and “The Great Satan” (Shaytan-e Bozorg).  These terms form a cornerstone of the Ayatollah’s foundational doctrine and core ideology, including its policy toward the US.

*The Ayatollah regime views the US as the mega-hurdle on the way to achieving the Ayatollah’s mega-goal: establishing the Twelver Shiite doctrine as the globally exclusive, legitimate, divinely-ordained religion. The US is also perceived as a mega-threat, culturally, geo-strategically, ideologically and religiously. 

The 1979 Ayatollah Constitution

*The Constitution avoids naming specific foreign nations, in order to maintain a universalist legal framework. However, anti-Americanism is encoded through such terms as – and inferring that the US is the core of – “imperialism,” “global arrogance,” “oppression,” “foreign domination,” “belligerent hegemony,“ colonialism,” “steadfastness,” “resistance,” etc. Anti-American animus is structural rather than merely rhetorical.

For example:

*The preamble of the Constitution frames the revolution as an “anti-despotic movement” and “anti-colonialist,” committing Iran to “the liberation of all deprived and oppressed peoples in the world.”  In addition: “The Iranian [Islamic] Revolution, which was a movement for the victory of all the oppressed over the arrogant, provides a basis for the continuation of that revolution both inside and outside the country.…”

*Article 2(6)(c): The Islamic Republic negates all forms of oppression, both the infliction of and the submission to it, and of dominance, both its imposition and its acceptance.

*Article 3(5): The Islamic Republic is committed to the complete elimination of imperialism and the prevention of foreign influence.

*Article 3(6): The Islamic Republic is committed to eliminate “all forms of despotism and autocracy.”

*Article 152 (foreign policy principles) declares: “The foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based upon the rejection of all forms of domination—both the exertion of it and submission to it—the preservation of the all-around independence and territorial integrity of the country, the defense of the rights of all Muslims, non-alignment with respect to the hegemonial superpowers, and the maintenance of peaceful relations with all non-belligerent States.”

*Article 154: “While scrupulously refraining from all forms of interference in the internal affairs of other nations, it supports the just struggles of the oppressed (mustaz’afin) against the oppressors (mustakbirin) in every corner of the globe [including Latin America].”

School Curriculum

*While US policy makers rely heavily on commitments made by the Ayatollah negotiators – who are proficient in the art of the Taqiyya (dissimulation) – in the negotiation room and public arena, the most authentic and credible reflection of the Ayatollah’s apocalyptic and megalomaniacal anti-US strategy, tactics and vision is available in the Ayatollahs’ school curriculum.

*Since February 1979, dramatic US financial or diplomatic pressure and gestures have failed to induce moderation in the Ayatollah’s school curriculum and the Ayatollah’s rogue track record.

Impact-se, Iranian School Textbooks, May 2026:

*Grade 9, 2024-25, p. 31, Defense Readiness book highlights photographs, which depict 10 US sailors captured by the Iranian navy in the Persian Gulf, on January 12, 2016, in a humiliating and submissive position, kneeling with their hands behind their heads.  

*Grade 8, 2024-25, p. 130, Social Studies (Civics, History, Geography) condemns Sunni regimes which reject the Ayatollah dominance, while maintaining strong ties with the US or the West.  They are portrayed as collaborators and traitors.

Friday Mosque Sermons

*Friday sermons in Iran are coordinated by the Policy Council of Friday Prayer Imams under the authority of the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah). Friday sermons echo the Ayatollah’s anti-US rhetoric, which annually commemorate the November 4, 1979 takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran, resulting in more than 50 Americans held hostage for 444 days.

For instance:

*”America is the Great Satan (Shaytan-e Bozorg), the number one enemy of the deprived and oppressed people of the world. America will not stop at anything to secure its domination over the world’s resources.”

*On November 4, 2015 – three and a half months following the JCPOA, which showered upon the Ayatollah regime mega-billions of dollars worth of US-led financial and diplomatic bonanzas, Ayatollah Khamenei celebrated the “National Day of Fighting Against Global Arrogance” (the US Embassy takeover), telling students that “Death to America” is rational and constitutionally grounded.

*In Qom, on November 3, 2023, home of the country’s largest Shiite seminary, Imam Mohammad Saeedi claimed that “Iran has struck a hard blow against the United States with its Death to America slogan.” Saeedi added: “This is not simply a slogan. It is a revolutionary strategy.”  Saeedi added: “The takeover of the US spy den was a manifestation of this strategy.” Imam Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini preached: “This [anti-US] slogan has created a strategic link between Iran and other countries and created a large front.”

*“The villainous U.S. government repeatedly says that it is standing by the Iranian people. They lie. If you are standing by the Iranian people, it is only to stab them in the heart with your venomous daggers… The enemy is the global center of arrogance and domination, one great manifestation of which is America.” (Tehran Friday Sermon, January 17, 2020). 

Official & State-Aligned Media (Kayhan, IRNA, Press TV)

*Kayhan (disambiguation) is Iran’s prominent hardline newspaper, whose editor-in-chief is appointed directly by the Ayatollah. Just like Iran’s State TV, Kayhan regularly portrays the US as “satanic, treacherous, arrogant, despotic, corrupt and warmongering.” “We will not rest until we have raised the banner of Islam over the White House.”

The Bottom Line

*Are US policy makers determined to avoid – or repeat – the wave of critical errors of the last 47 years, underlined by the negotiation option (launched during the 1978 negotiation with Ayatollah Khomeini), rather than regime-change?

*While preoccupied with the cost assessment of regime-change, are US policy makers considering the catastrophic cost of refraining from regime-change?! For example, the dramatic erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which would eventually yield the first ever apocalyptic (Ayatollah) nuclear power, emboldened Islamic terrorism on US soil, bolstered Chinese posture in Latin America, the toppling of all pro-US Arab regimes, which have the Ayatollah’s and the Muslim Brotherhood’s machetes at their throat, etc.

*Are US policy makers aware that – irrespective of negotiation and agreements – snakes may shed their skin, but not their nature?!

Support Appreciated

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
August 2, 2026

*The 47-year-war launched against the US by the Ayatollah regime, since 1979, predates – and is independent of – any specific US President or policy, as demonstrated during the Administrations of Carter and Reagan, Obama and Bush, Biden and Trump. 

*The 47-year-track record of the Ayatollah regime – as underscored in its Constitution, school curriculum and mosque sermons – provides a body of evidence that the regime’s core Shiite orientation highlights anti-Americanism as a foundational pillar of identity, rather than a temporary foreign policy.

*The Ayatollah track record has been a derivative of a fanatical, apocalyptic (Twelver Shiite) ideology. It mandates the exportation of the Islamic Shiite Revolution (1979 Constitution, article 154), establishing a globally exclusive, “divinely-ordained” Shiite Islamic governance, in preparation for the return of the Hidden Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, which is to be preceded by chaos, suffering, rivers of blood and martyrdom. The Ayatollah’s ideology frames political conflicts in metaphysical, non-negotiable terms, yielding civilizational and religious battles in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and inside the US.

*The Ayatollah ideology mandates the toppling of the “apostate, treacherous” Sunni regimes, and bring the “infidel” West – and primarily “The Great Arrogant and Oppressive American Satan” – to submission. The US is viewed as an existential, moral, irreconcilable, illegitimate adversary. Since 1979 – despite the fact that it was a US President, who paved the road to Ayatollah Khomeini’s toppling of the Shah – Anti Americanism has functioned as a key ideological glue of the Ayatollah regime, a metric for domestic political loyalty. In fact, the annual commemoration of the November 4, 1979 US Embassy takeover isreinforced by the chant “Death to America” (“Marg bar Amrika“).

*While the Ayatollah regime frequently displays tactical flexibility, when under extreme pressure, its strategic trajectory demonstrates that ideological objectives transcend financial and diplomatic bonanzas, as well as international norms. For example, the Jihad-driven doctrine of the “Resistive Economy” (eqtesād-e moqāvematī) accepts economic austerity and isolation as a price for maintaining ideological independence. In defiance of the mega-billion-dollars of financial pressure/sanctions and temptations, the Ayatollah regime prioritizes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its expeditionary arm, the Quds Force, the funding of proxy terror organizations (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis), and the 46-year-strategic entrenchment in Latin America.

*The negotiation process provides the Ayatollah regime with the time to lick wounds, relieve pressure, gain tactical concessions, restore and upgrade conventional, ballistic and nuclear capabilities, in cooperation with China, Russia and North Korea. These countries are eager to prove their reliability and effectiveness as strategic allies, notwithstanding the devastation of their air defenses, combat aircraft and missile batteries during the 2025 and 2026 Iran wars.

*In the Middle East, a strong party’s proposal to negotiate reflects insecurity, hesitancy and weakness, which emboldens rogue entities, as demonstrated by the waves of unprecedent terrorism, that was triggered by Israel’s negotiation cycles with the PLO (Oslo 1993) and Hamas (since 2007). The Ayatollah regime would never propose to negotiate with a devastated enemy, but proceed to deal a knockout blow to such an enemy.

*The 47-year-policy of negotiation with the Ayatollah regime has not induced Iranian moderation, but bolstered the anti-US capabilities of the Ayatollah regime. The policy of negotiation has played a key role in catapulting Iran from a second/third rate strategic power to a major global strategic player. In addition, the negotiation policy has played a major role in transforming Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” (1971-1978) to a chief global epicenter of anti-US terrorism, wars, drug trafficking and money laundering. 

*The tendency to kick the can down the road has reflected Western policy makers’ inclination to sacrifice medium/long-term national security on the altar of short-term convenience, as has been demonstrated by multiple precedents. For example, the 1981 Algiers Accord yielded the release of 50 American hostages, but was followed by the 1983 Beirut US Embassy and Marines barracks Iran-Hezbollah car bombs, which murdered 258 Americans. This pattern was repeated by the US-led 2015 JCPOA, when the Ayatollah regime invested most of the hundreds of billions of dollars, gained through the accord, in bolstering its ballistic capabilities, and cultivating its global terror and drug trafficking network, including in Latin America and on US soil.  Moreover, Western policy makers tend to overlook the clear and present lethal threat posed by the Ayatollah regime.

*Western policy makers have taken lightly the structural contradiction between the incompatible definitions of negotiation by Western policy makers and the Ayatollah regime.  Thus, while the West views negotiation as a win-win, deal-making, problem-solving, conflict-ending, mutually-accepted solution, and a process of permanent strategic reconciliation, the Ayatollah regime approaches negotiation as a confrontational, conflict-perpetuating, temporary ceasefire-like process – an extension of warfare by other means.  

*Western policy makers view a signed agreement as an achievement, but the Ayatollah regime views a signed agreement as a time stalling tactic, in order to advance the strategic achievement – bringing the “infidel” to submission.

*While Western policy makers approach negotiation as eager sprinters, the Ayatollah regime approaches negotiation as patient marathon runners.

*Approaching the Ayatollah regime as a transactional party overlooks the reality that anti-Americanism is not merely a negotiable policy, or a bargaining chip, but the core identity of the Islamic Republic.

*The 47-year-negotiation with the Ayatollah regime has enhanced the legitimacy of that rogue entity, paving the road to intensified violence, which could eventually usher-in the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power.

*Is the US determined to learn from critical mistakes by repeating, or avoiding, them?!

Support Appreciated

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: US-Israel Initiative”
July 22, 2026

*Independent of Israel’s existence, the Ayatollah regime’s hostility toward the US is deeply rooted in its 1,400-year-old fanatical, apocalyptic, anti-“infidel” ideology, as is reaffirmed in its Constitution, school curriculum, mosque sermons, official media and daily geo-strategic conduct.

*Notwithstanding US-Israel relations, the overriding ideology of the Ayatollah regime mandates the global exportation of the Islamic Revolution, as a step in the long-term battle to crown the Twelver Shia as the sole, predominant, divinely-ordained religion on earth.

*Nongermane to Israel, the Ayatollah regime is committed – religiously, historically and strategically – to expedite the reappearance of the 12th Shiite Imam, Mohammad al Mahdi, who disappeared in the 10th century.  This reappearance is preconditioned upon a victory over the “treacherous Sunni apostates” and “Western infidels,” especially “The Great American Satan,” which requires rivers of blood and martyrdom, supposedly yielding the end of time messianic Shiite deliverance.

*Irrespective of Israel, the ideological, religious and geo-strategic core of the Ayatollah’s Islamic Republic frames the US as the most critical enemy, “The Great American Satan” (Sheytân-e Bozorg), the ultimate source of global temptation, corruption, and imperialistic “infidel” arrogance. The US is regarded as the chief global oppressor and usurper, exploiting Islamic resources, propping up immoral “infidel” (Western and pro-Western) and “apostate” (Sunni) entities, and proliferating a venomously decadent culture. Moreover, the Ayatollah’s Constitution and core ideology mandate the regime to establish “The Axis of Resistance,” in order to bring the US to submission through a perpetual Jihad (Holy War).

*Extraneous to Israel, the Ayatollah regime is driven by an imperialistic, megalomaniacal, worldwide mega-vision, which requires mega-capabilities (conventional, ballistic and nuclear), and is preconditioned upon overcoming and subjugating a mega-hurdle (the USA).  The Ayatollah regime views the US as  a mega-hurdle in its pursuit of regional hegemony and its historic duty to topple all “treacherous and apostate” Sunni regimes, which happen to be aligned with the US.

*Regardless of Israel’s role in the Middle East and beyond, and despite the US’ critical role (1978/79) in paving the road of the Ayatollah regime to power, the Ayatollah regime seized the US Embassy in Tehran, in November 1979,and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

*Unrelated to Israel, since 1980, the Ayatollah regime – jointly with Hezbollah – has entrenched itself in Latin America, which is considered “the soft underbelly” of the US, and a critical segment of “The Axis of Resistance.” The Ayatollah regime has intensified cooperation with drug cartels in Mexico, Columbia, Bolivia and Brazil, supplying them with predator unmanned aerial vehicles and underground tunnel-construction equipment. The regime has established a strategic posture in the lawless tri-border areas of Argentina-Paraguay-Brazil and Chile- Bolivia-Peru, training terrorists, promoting drug trafficking and laundering money.

*Despite the fact that in 1982, the US deployed US Marines to Lebanon, in order to constrain Israel’s offensive on PLO terrorists in Lebanon, the Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah car-bombed (in 1983) the US Embassy and the Marines barracks in Beirut, murdering 270 Americans. The Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah were also involved in the planning and execution of the 1998 car-bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, murdering 224 people, including 12 Americans.  More than 1,000 Americans have been murdered in the Middle East by the Ayatollah regime and its terror proxies in Iraq, Syria and Jordan.

*Unconnected to Israel, the Ayatollah regime has expanded its network of sleeper terror cells on US soil, as cautioned by the FBI Director in a November 2023 Hearing in the House Committee on Homeland Security: “…As the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, the Iranians have directly, or by hiring criminals, mounted assassination attempts against dissidents and high ranking current and former US officials, including right here on American soil…. Hezbollah, Iran’s primary strategic partner, has tried to seed operatives, establish infrastructure and engage in spying here domestically… planning future operations in the US….” The 2025 Threat Assessment issued by the FBI and the Homeland Security Department highlighted the Ayatollah’s surrogate network within the US, aiming to intensify fear of Islamic terrorism, while undermining the confidence of Americans in their own government.

*Israel is correctly portrayed by the Ayatollah regime as the most effective US vanguard in “the abode of Islam” – “The Little Satan.”  The US is perceived as the strategic global enemy, while Israel is a tactical regional instrument, serving the Oppressive US’ civilizational, religious, and geopolitical war on the Oppressed entities. The Ayatollah regime has concluded that undermining Israel’s strategic posture – through its Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi proxies, as well as its own ballistic missiles – undermines the US regional and global posture. The Ayatollah’s view of Israel is a derivative of its view of the US, independent of the Palestinian issue and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

*In 2026, the US has an opportunity to correct the misguided 1978/79-2024 US policy – which transformed Iran from “The American Policeman of the Gulf” to a leading global epicenter of anti-US wars, terrorism and drug trafficking – by uprooting the Ayatollah regime.  

*The cost of regime change would be dwarfed by the cost of refraining from regime change, highlighted by the emergence of the first ever apocalyptic nuclear power, afflicting humanity with catastrophic cost. Failing to trigger regime-change, would erode the US posture of deterrence, emboldening China in the Pacific, African and Latin American arenas, invigorating Russia in the Baltic Sea and East Europe, and energizing anti-US Islamic terrorism on US soil. It would also intensify existential threats to all pro-US Sunni Arab regimes, induce more wars and terrorism, while discouraging the expansion of the Abraham Accords.

Support Appreciated

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
June 28, 2026

*A regime that merely changes tactics under pressure – and is not forced into foundational restructuring – is not reformed, but temporarily constrained. A durable reform away from the Ayatollah’s Islamic Republic requires more than a leadership turnover.

*47 years of the Ayatollah regime’s rogue track record determines that expecting this regime to be potentially reformed – while its core architecture is not overhauled – is speculative and unrealistic.

*The Ayatollah’s Islamic Republic is not merely a government that can be reformed, deconflicted or voted out; rather, it is an ideological ecosystem.  Thus, the prerequisite for an effective reform to occur, the core pillars (the DNA) that sustain this ecosystem must be entirely dismantled and uprooted.  An effective reform must preclude a potential renewal of the Ayatollah ideology. Furthermore, dismantling the core pillars distinguishes between a deceptive (a tactical retreat utilizing taqiyya-dissimulation) and a genuine transformation.

The Following Prerequisites Are Required:

*Disavowing and discarding completely the 1979 Constitution, which is not merely a legal charter, but the roadmap of the Ayatollah’s domestic and external rogue strategy. It reflects the Ayatollah regime’s 1,400-year-old apocalyptic, megalomaniacal vision, which pursues the establishment of a universal society under the supremacy of Shiite Islam, mandating the toppling of all “apostate” Sunni regimes and bringing the Western “infidel” – and especially “The Great American Satan” – to submission.  The Ayatollah’s Constitution enshrines the battle of the oppressed “mustadafun” (e.g., Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua) over the oppressive and arrogant “mustakbirun” (e.g., “The Great American Satan,” Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel). It codifies the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), subordinating the entire population to a, supposedly, divinely-ordained authority, religiously (as the sole interpreter of Islam), militarily and civically, domestically and externally, educationally and economically.

*Abolish the Ayatollah (Supreme Leader) position, the Guardian Council (the unelected body that vetoes legislation and disqualifies candidates) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is not merely a military force, but an economic empire and ideological enforcer that exists independently of any government. The dismantling of the IRGC should include the Basij, which is a paramilitary volunteer militia within the IRGC.

*Another prerequisite for a reformed regime in Iran is the uprooting of the school curriculum and the Friday mosque sermons, which have been the most authentic reflection of the Ayatollah’s vision and policy, highlighting Jihad, martyrdom, vengeance and the vilification of the Western “infidel” and the neighboring Sunni “apostates,” who must be subjugated.  The education and religious systems have become the most effective machines of ideological reproduction, and the manufacturing lines of Ayatollah loyalists. They are committed to the Ayatollah Constitution, willing to sacrifice their lives on the altar of the Ayatollah’s apocalyptic and imperialistic vision. They are consistent with the Constitution, domestic repression of ethnic and religious minorities, the subjugation of women, and the proliferation of anti-US terrorism in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and on US soil, providing a roadmap for an apocalyptic commitment to a global, anti-US Islamic revolution.

*Rejecting the exportation of the Islamic revolution, which is articulated by Article 154 of the Ayatollah Constitution, mandating support for the “just struggles of the oppressed [Iran and additional 3rd World members of “the axis of resistance”] against the arrogant [the USA and its allies] in every corner of the globe.” This doctrine justifies global sedition and subversion, cooperation with terror proxies, as well as framing domestic dissent as treason.

*Renouncing – explicitly and constitutionally -the toppling of Sunni (“apostate”) regimes, subjugation of the “infidel” West, bringing “The Great American Satan” to submission, and the destruction of Israel as national objectives.

*Ending – explicitly and constitutionally – discrimination, repression and oppression of women, as well as religious and ethnic minorities, while releasing all political prisoners, and recognizing the legitimacy of the 2009 Green Movement, the 2019 protests, and the 2022 Zan, Zendegi, Azadi (Woman, Life, Freedom) uprising.

*Abolishing the 1979-conceived name/identity “The Islamic Republic,” and restoring the original name/identity “Iran” or “Persia.”  This prerequisite refers to the predominance of historical, pre-Islamic, and civic nationalism over fanatical Ayatollah theocracy, which has been dedicated to the subordination of Iran’s thousands of years-old-cultural heritage to a fanatical, supremacist, apocalyptic 7th-century-identity.  It would shift the national ethos away from martyrdom toward a unified historical linguistic and cultural heritage, such as the legacy of Cyrus the Great and, possibly, the 1905 secular Constitutional Revolution, which transformed Iran from an absolute monarchy into a constitutional system, underscoring parliamentary sovereignty, individual rights and written law to curb despotic authority.

The Bottom Line

*Differentiating between tactical accommodation by Iranian negotiators and systemic reform, one should remember that scorpions cannot change stings, neither can leopards change spots.

*Changing the spots of the Ayatollah regime mandates the dismantling of the Ayatollah’s DNA, ideological ecosystem and the aforementioned core pillars.

Support Appreciated

Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
June 19, 2026

*The US-initiated negotiation with the Ayatollah regime – which has been preoccupied, since February 1979, with anti-US global war, terrorism and drug trafficking – is consistent with the traditional approach to the Middle East by the State Department’s establishment, irrespective of the fact that this establishment has been sidelined by President Trump from the center stage of shaping US foreign policy during his first and second terms.   

*The State Department’s policy in the Middle East has been driven by short-term (sprint-like), containment-driven considerations, and high susceptibility to pressure, rather than long-term (marathon-like) regional and global stability considerations. Thus, it has fuelled regional and global instability, producing severe unintended consequences.  For example, it has eroded the US’ posture of deterrence, yielding a robust tailwind to anti-US (marathon-like) entities, intensifying ruthless despotism (e.g., the Ayatollah regime since its inception in 1979). It has emboldened China (also in Latin America), Russia (in the Baltic Sea and East Europe) and anti-US Islamic terrorism (also on US soil).  In addition, it has jeopardized the stability of the pro-US Arab regimes, inducing them to explore closer defense and commercial ties with China and Russia, and dealing a severe setback to the US national and homeland security.

*The State Department establishment has systematically attempted to base its Middle East policy on Western values, such as “Money Talks,” good faith negotiation, peaceful coexistence, adherence to human rights, democracy and durable peace.

*Assessing the Middle East via Western lenses has been sustained, irrespective of its self-destructive track record (please see below).  Moreover, this approach has been repudiated by the 1,400-year-old intrinsic features of the Middle East, such as the 1,400-year-absence of intra-Muslim and intra-Arab peaceful coexistence, and the centrality of religion, fanatic ideology and historic milestones (e.g., the 680 Battle of Kerbala), which transcend financial and diplomatic considerations. Other non-Western features of the Middle East highlight tenuous, shifty and unpredictable regimes, policies and accords, brutal intolerance (toward the “infidel” and among the “believers”), violent religious and ethnic fragmentation, and the superiority of tribal – rather than national – loyalty.  

A Sample of Self-Destructive US Middle East Policy

*The State Department establishment embraced Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978/79, referring to him as “an Iranian edition of Ghandi.”  It took lightly his fanatic anti-US ideology, while backstabbing the Shah of Iran, “America’s policeman in the Gulf.” Thus, it catapulted the Ayatollah regime from a second rate strategic power to the most effective global epicenter of anti-US terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering, constituting a clear and present threat to US homeland security.

*The pro-Soviet Saddam Hussein benefitted from US financial and intelligence cooperation until his August 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which led to two Gulf Wars.

*Bashar Assad was portrayed as a potential moderate and pro-American by the State Department establishment, only to prove himself to be a more vicious butcher than his father, Hafez Assad.

*The State Department establishment welcomed the 2010/11 Arab Tsunami, as if it were an Arab Spring, reflecting peace, youth and Facebook revolutions. In 2026, the Arab Tsunami is still raging on the Arab Street, as it has been on-again-off-again since the 7th century.

*The State Department-initiated, US-led NATO military offensive against Gaddafi, succeeded in lynching Gaddafi, but transformed Libya into a major platform of anti-Western terrorism and an arena of civil wars (which are still raging), involving Turkey, Russia, Greece, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, France and Italy.

*The cheering of the disengagement from Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan may have been premature, since Islamic terrorists are mandated not to disengage from the US, committed to bring “The Great American Satan” to submission.  They present the US with a choice: to pre-empt Islamic terrorists, or to react to Islamic terrorism on US soil, which may dwarf 9/11.

*In 2011, a 30-year-ally of the US, Egyptian President Mubarak, was publicly abandoned by President Obama, who hailed the anti-US Muslim Brotherhood, paving its road to the helm in Egypt, which intensified the Brotherhood’s attempts to topple every pro-US Arab regime (e.g., Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabi, the UAE).  

*In 2015, President Obama concluded the JCPOA, which accorded the Ayatollah regime unprecedent diplomatic legitimacy, a few hundred billions of dollars in unfrozen assets and sanctions relief, most of it funnelled to the IRGC, Hezbollah, and other terror proxies, as well as to the Ayatollah’s entrenchment in Latin America, the US’ “soft underbelly.”

The Bottom Line

*Rogue and terrorist regimes bite the hand that feeds them.

*A US policy which is shaped through Western – rather than Middle Eastern – lenses, sacrifices the inconvenient, frustrating, bleeding and relatively insoluble Middle East reality on the altar of a convenient, peaceful and soluble alternate reality is bound to severely undermine US interests.

*The US is better-served by learning from history by avoiding – rather than repeating – past mistakes.

*Middle East leopards don’t change spots, only tactics.

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Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
June 14, 2026

*While the Ayatollah’s negotiators benefit from a marathon-like state of mind – which is a prerequisite for a long term, productive outcome – Western negotiators are severely undermined by their sprint-like state of mind, which is prone to impatience and “kicking the can down the road”.

*Contrary to the Ayatollah’s concept of negotiation, the Western concept of negotiation assumes good faith, win-win and compromise as a baseline, aiming at a finite, binding, transparent, verifiable and freely enforceable outcome. The Western concept underscores reconciliation and peaceful coexistence with both sides making concessions.

*The Ayatollah’s concept of negotiation as historically established – since the 7^th century – is an extension of warfare by other means.  This a tactical pause, not a final outcome, dominated by a 1,400-year-ideology, which transcends financial and diplomatic considerations. The Ayatollah’s tactics of negotiation are deeply rooted in the Islamic doctrines of Taqiyya (dissimulation), khodeh (trickery, rather than outright lies), kitman (hiding one’s true intentions), taarof (ambiguity and ostensible politeness, aiming to confuse) and Hudna (a temporary truce facilitating regrouping/rearming).  The Ayatollah’s concept of negotiation exploits agreements, and then discards them when circumstances change.

*The Ayatollah’s negotiators view proposals to negotiate – initiated by rivals/enemies – as a sign of insecurity, vulnerability and weakness. The Ayatollah would not propose to negotiate with weaker rivals/enemies, but proceed to defeat them militarily. For example, Israel intended its initiatives/negotiation of the 1993 Oslo Accords and the 2005 Gaza Disengagement to be dramatic gestures, demonstrating statesmanship and generosity, leading to reciprocal moderation. However, the Palestinians interpreted the Israeli initiatives as an erosion of Israel’s resolve in the face of diplomatic pressure and Palestinian terrorism. The Palestinian interpretation has led to institutionalized and intensified hate-education and an unprecedent wave of Palestinian terrorism, highlighting suicide bombing and missile offensives, with a focus on pre-1967 Israel. While Israel considered the Oslo Accord and the Gaza Disengagement as venues to peaceful coexistence, the Palestinians have viewed it as a beachhead toward the uprooting of “the illegal and infidel Zionist entity.”

*Productive negotiation cannot be conducted with adversaries, which are driven by an ideology, that mandates the elimination of their negotiation partners (e.g., The universal Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS vs the rulers of national Islamic countries, Palestinians vs ”the illegal Zionist entity,” the Ayatollah regime vs “The Great American Satan”).

The Bottom Line

*Any agreement concluded with the Ayatollah regime would boost its legitimacy, bolstering its role as a chief epicenter of anti-US wars, terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering. It would sustain the Ayatollah’s machete at the throats of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and other pro-US Arab regimes. It would embolden China (in the Pacific, Africa and Latin America), Russia (in the Baltic basin and Eastern Europe) and anti-US Islamic terrorism (globally, including on US soil). Any agreement with the Ayatollah regime would devastate the liberty aspirations of the Iranian people, and minimize the prospects of expanding the Abraham Accords.

*Since February 1979, The Ayatollah’s negotiators have excelled in protracting talks and exhausting Western patience, leveraging Western democracy and election cycles, and exploiting the Western addiction to “money talks.” This has taken advantage of the tendency to assess the violently intolerant, unpredictable, shifty and (intra-Muslim) conflict ridden Middle East through Western lenses. They employ time as a weapon and a means to lick wounds, avoid obliteration, restore and upgrade capabilities, and resume the battle to destroy the “infidel,” especially, the “Great American Satan.”

*Is the US heeding the country colloquialism: “There’s no education in the 2^nd kick of a mule”? The Ayatollah regime is not a mule, but an apocalyptic predator, which has kicked the US continuously since 1979.

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A new video produced by J.P.Katz of Tribe Journal, based on Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger’s articles

May 21, 2026

*The Ayatollah regime’s war on the USA has been conducted since February 1979, driven by a 1,400-year-apocalyptic ideology, which transcends financial and diplomatic considerations.

*The Ayatollah’s war on the USA has been conducted in collaboration with Hezbollah terrorists, who are well-entrenched in Latin America, as well as with international criminal entities, including Latin America’s drug cartels.

*The FBI’s and the US Homeland Security Department indicate that the Ayatollah’s war on the USA has been conducted also on US soil through a growing network of Iran-controlled sleeper cells.

*Negotiation and economic sanctions have failed to induce the Ayatollah regime to accept peaceful coexistence with its Sunni Arab neighbors, become good faith negotiators, or abandon its apocalytic and imperialistic ideology.

*Refraining from regime-change has propelled the Ayatollah regime to global strategic prominence, and could afflict the globe with the catastdrophic cost of the first-ever apocalyptic nuclear power.

It’s time to realize that “There’s No Education In The Second Kick Of a Mule!“

(The Ayatollah Narco-Jihad on the US in Latin America)
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettiner, “Second Thought: a US-Israel Initiative”
May 10, 2026

*According to the West Point Center for Combatting Terrorism: “Iran and its proxies have spent years investing in a ‘homeland option’ in the US. In just the past five years, US authorities have disrupted at least 17 Iranian plots in the homeland…. In its 2025 Threat Assessment, the Director of National Intelligence assessed that Iran “will continue to directly threaten US persons globally and remains committed to its decade-long effort to develop surrogate networks inside the US…. The Department of Homeland Security’s 2025 Threat Assessment [and the FBI] concurred, reporting ‘we expect Iran to remain the primary sponsor of terrorism and continue its efforts to advance plots against individuals – including current and former US officials – in the US.’ Such plots have been on the rise in recent years…. In early 2024…, a network of [Iranian] individuals targeted Iranian dissidents and opposition activists [in the US] for assassination at the direction of the Iranian regime…. According to the FBI, Hezbollah has maintained a presence in the US since at least 1987.”

*Notwithstanding the 47-year-record of repeated US negotiation with the Ayatollah regime; irrespective of the hundreds of billions of dollars showered upon the Ayatollah regime; and in defiance of the 47-year-economic sanctions imposed by the US; the Ayatollah regime has systematically adhered to its 1,400-year-old apocalyptic and megalomaniacal anti-US ideology.

*Moreover, the Ayatollah regime has leveraged the US diplomatic/negotiation approach to stall for time, facilitate recovery, restore and upgrade anti-US terror, drug trafficking, ballistic and nuclear capabilities, while adhering to the fanatical mission of toppling all “apostate” Sunni regimes, and bringing the “infidel” West to submission.

According to Mark Twain, “There’s No Education in The Second Kick of a Mule!”

*Soon after the February 1979 toppling the Shah of Iran, and the November 1979 seizing the US Embassy in Tehran and holding 50 Americans hostage for 444 days, the Ayatollah regime – in tight collaboration with Hezbollah terrorists – launched a Narco-Jihad in Latin America, the US’ soft underbelly, against “The Great American Satan.” The aim has been to erode the US strategic posture in its own backyard.  In addition, the Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah collaborated in global anti-US terrorism, such as car-bombing the US embassies in Beirut, Kenya and Tanzania, the Marines barracks in Beirut, and the attempted murder of past and present top US officials.

*The Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has used the mega-billions of-dollars of annual revenues from drug trafficking and money laundering for training and arming anti-US entities in Latin America and the Middle East. In fact, IranAir planes have been intensely involved in the transportation of drugs, drug traffickers and terrorists.

*Since 1980, the Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah have cultivated alliances with anti-US governments along the “cocaine corridor” from the tip of South America to the US-Mexico border.

*Cocaine shipments have been made from Latin America to the US, and some from Latin America to West Africa and on to Europe and the Middle East, involving larger-than-ever Hezbollah used-car money-laundering operations, funding global Iran-controlled global terrorism infrastructure, including on US soil.

*It has been suggested that the Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah operate like the Gambino crime family on steroids. Furthermore, the Ayatollah regime and Hezbollah have expanded their presence in Mexico, supplying Mexican drug cartels with equipment to construct underground tunnels into California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, training drug cartel assassins, and bolstering the Ayatollah-controlled network of sleeper cells in the US, which keeps scouting potential targets.  

*The lawless and uncontrollable tri-border areas of Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay and Chile-Bolivia-Peru have been documented as the central operational and financial hub of Iranian and Hezbollah terrorism in Latin America. They have leveraged the well-established Lebanese-Shiite diaspora in the region, especially in Paraguay’s Ciudad del Este, into a paradise for drug traffickers, money launderers, organized crime and anti-US Islamic terrorists.

*Iran’s Ayatollah and Hezbollah have established an elaborate regional and global infrastructure of terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering, counterfeiting, fundraising, training, conversion to Islam, recruitment and media centers, as well as testing ballistic technologies, and benefitting from Latin American natural resources, such as uranium (e.g., Venezuela and Guyana) . They forged strategic alliances with the “Pink Tide” anti-US regimes (e.g., Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua and Bolivia), breaking their international isolation, and collaborating with drug cartels and terror organizations.

*The Ayatollah regime is aware that Colombia, Peru and Bolivia are the three leading cocaine producers in the world.  Peru sits on uranium reserves and Bolivia is also endowed with lithium – a key strategic mineral for nuclear applications.

*The Canada-based IranWire adds that “In recent years, the Tri Border Area of Argentina-Paraguay-Brazil has become the epicenter of world cocaine trafficking and narco-terrorism… with logistical support from Colombian, Mexican and Venezuelan cartels…. Hezbollah earns about $2bn annually through illegal drug trafficking in the Tri Border Area…. Hezbollah maintains links with some of the most violent cartels in Latin America, including Mexico’s Los Zetas, Columbia’s FARC [and Oficina de Envigado] and Brazil’s PCC… helping them to obtain weapons and access to international smuggling networks outside Latin America….”

*According to the October 25, 2023 House Homeland Security Committee testimony by Nathan Sales, a former US Coordinator for Counterterrorism: “The Islamic Republic of Iran is the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism…. This regime has murdered countless innocent civilians, taken hostages remorselessly, and shed blood on an industrial scale. The threat it poses is not confined to the Middle East but extends across the entire world—including the US…. The Islamic Republic is actively plotting to assassinate a number of former senior US officials here on American soil…. These former officials now live under constant, twenty-four-hour government protection because of the Iranian threat to their lives…. The Iranian regime targets Americans abroad as well as at home. The IRGC was responsible for killing 603 American soldiers in Iraq…. That is one-sixth of all U.S. fatalities during the war in Iraq. In Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic reportedly paid Taliban fighters a one-thousand-dollar bounty for every American soldier they killed….”  

The bottom line

*Reality has demonstrated that the Iranian leopard will not change spots; only tactics.

*US policy on Iran should be based on the Ayatollahs’ objective track record, not on a subjective and speculative track record.

*Reality has established that Iran’s Ayatollahs are driven by a fanatical, religious, megalomaniacal vision, and not by despair, “Money Talks,” or eagerness to be accepted internationally.  Therefore, they are more concerned with “guns” than “butter,” and are not amenable to credible negotiation, peaceful coexistence, human rights and democracy.

*Reality has determined that waving the military option and a genuine DNA regime change has been self-destructive, transforming the Ayatollah regime from a second/third class geo-strategic power to a major global power to be reckoned with, bolstering its anti-US global operation in the US’ own backyard, the US’ soft underbelly, as well as on US soil.

*Reality has documented that There’s No Education in The Second Kick of a Mule!

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