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The Real Mid-East VS the New Mid-East

The New Mid-East school of thought underlines political correctness, but undermines the stability of the Real Mid-East. This has been recently verified by Western support of the “March of Democracy,” which has unleashed rampant violence on the Arab Street.

In defiance of an unpredictably raging Mid-East, the New Mid-Easterners call for a quick transition to democracy in Egypt and in other Arab countries.  In spite of intensified intra-Arab violence, non-compliance, shifty policies and unreliability, the New Mid-Easterners call for Israel to assume more risks for peace and concede the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria, which tower over Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and 80% of Israel’s infrastructure.

On September 15, 2000, a few days before the eruption of another wave of Palestinian terrorism (the 2nd Intifada), President Peres highlighted the central thesis of his book, The New Middle East, his blueprint of the two-states-solution.  Speaking at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Peres stated: “I doubt very much if the Palestinians will go back to terrorism…. I do not see Arafat, a person whom I respect, endangering what he has achieved …. I believe that the previous borders, made of barbed wire, of mine fields, of military positions, are irrelevant to our life. … [A] good hotel on the border will provide more peace and security than a military position…. Once a nation turns its focus on land to a focus on brains, borders are irrelevant.” According to Peres, the role model of New Mid-Easterners, the Mid-East would become an integrated economic region with open borders, shared natural resources, military technologies converted into peaceful technologies – a Mid-East devoted to the pursuit of democracy, peace, cooperation, mutual-gain and prosperity.

However, The Real Mid-East, through the horrifying turmoil afflicting Arab lands – irrespective of the Palestinian issue – has demolished Peres’ New Mideast. It has devastated the contention that the security threshold could be lowered significantly, because military forces, sectarianism, nationalism, borders and territorial sovereignty have supposedly lost their primacy.

Moreover, the underlying geo-political currents, which have dominated the Real Mid-East for the last 1,400 years – e.g. no intra Arab comprehensive peace, compliance, or democracy – magnify the irreplaceable role of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria in securing the survival of the Jewish State, a sliver along the Mediterranean Sea.

The New Mid-East delusion traumatizes contemporary Arab regimes. They witness its impact on Western policy-makers, who approach the stormy Arab Winter as if it were an Arab Spring, seeing the resurrection of Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela and Lech Walesa in the merciless Arab squares and streets. Therefore, the West has provided tailwind to the replacement of pro-Western ruthless dictators with anti-Western ruthless dictators, rendering Arab regimes increasingly concerned about Western reliability and their own survivability.  They are horrified by the recurrence of the 1979 “Iranian Debacle,” when Western policy-makers and public-opinion molders were bewitched by the “Youth Revolution” and the “March of Democracy” on the streets of Teheran, lending support to Khomeini’s battle against the staunchly pro-Western Shah of Iran. However, the Mullahs hijacked the “Iranian Spring;” they excluded all moderate elements from positions of power, instituted a repressive reign of violent and imperialistic Islam, and intensified terrorism, intolerance and anti-Western sentiments throughout the Middle East.

 

 

 

In October, 2011,  Marwan Muasher, a Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment and former Deputy Prime Minister of Jordan, and Muhamm ad Faour, a senior associate at the Carnegie Mideast Center, served a wake-up call to New Mid-Easterners: “People in the Arab world will discover that their societies are not equipped with the skills and values needed to accept different, pluralistic norms of behavior…. Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy, in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders, are already shattering….  Democracy will thrive only in a culture that accepts diversity, respects different points of view, regards truths as relative rather than absolute, and tolerates — even encourages — dissent.”

 


The frivolous nature of the New Mid-East school of thought was exposed
on October 28, 2011 by Raghida Dergham, the senior diplomatic correspondent for The London-based Arab daily, Dar al-Hayat: “The obsession of some Westerners with the so-called ‘Turkish model’ of ‘moderate Islam’, able to rule with discipline and democracy, seems naïve….  There is also some naivety in assuming than the “Iranian model” of religious autocratic rule that oppresses people, forbids pluralism and turns power into tyranny, can be excluded as a possibility.”


In 2011, the clash of civilizations
– between Western democracies and Islamic imperialism – has shifted to a higher gear.  In order to win the battle, it is incumbent upon Western democracies to disengage from the spell of the New Mid-East and reengage with the Real Mid-East.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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