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From Cairo 2009 to Jerusalem 2013

Is President Obama learning from history by avoiding – or repeating – the crucial errors of his 2009 visit to the Middle East?

In 2009, Obama anticipated engagement, rather than confrontation, with Iran, which threatens the survival of pro-US Arab regimes in the Persian Gulf and beyond.  Obama expected an Arab Spring and a march of pro-US democracy on the Arab Street, rather than the stormy, tectonic anti-US Arab Winter.  Just like President Carter’s reckless abandonment of the Shah and his courting of Khomeini, President Obama turned his back on America’s ally, Mubarak, while extending his hand to America’s inherent enemy, the trans-national, subversive Muslim Brotherhood.  The desertion of Mubarak undermined US reliability in the eyes of pro-US Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf States. Furthermore, the newly-elected President promoted the UN as the quarterback of international relations and the US as a multilateral arbitrator/mediator, rather than a unilateral, determined military superpower. Such a policy has eroded America’s posture of deterrence, which is the backbone of the dwindling club of pro-US Arab regimes.

In 2013, President Obama is increasingly aware that a nuclear Iran would primarily target vital US economic, national and homeland security interests.  He is better acquainted with the threat of the Arab Winter, the potential disintegration of a few Arab countries and the intensification of Islamic terrorism.  The 2013 visit aims to reassure pro-US Arab regimes, who dread a nuclear Iran and are disillusioned with the US focus on diplomacy and economic sanctions. They doubt Washington’s intent to employ the only effective option against Iran: a surgical, disproportional military preemption with no boots on the ground.  President Obama aspires to secure the remaining pro-US Arab regimes in the face of the conventional and chemical lava erupting on the Syrian Street, which could sweep through Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and other Arab countries.

In 2009, the US President considered the Palestinian issue the epicenter of Middle East turbulence and anti-US Islamic terrorism, a facilitator of anti-Iran Arab coalition and the crown-jewel of Arab policy-making.

In 2013, the seismic Arab Street, from northwest Africa to the Persian Gulf, has exposed the marginal role played by the Palestinian issue in shaping Arab priorities and Middle East developments. Irrespective of Palestinian-oriented rhetoric, President Obama’s visit is driven by Iran’s nuclearization, the exploding Arab Street and the outcry by America’s Arab allies, not by the Arab-Israeli conflict or the Palestinian issue.  Neither the Middle East, nor US-Israel relations, evolves around the Palestinian issue.

In 2009, the US President assumed that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is over the size – not the existence – of Israel, hence the formula of land-for-peace.  Therefore, he insisted that painful Israeli concessions would pacify the Palestinians, rather than whet their appetite and radicalize their policy. He believed that his goodwill and charismatic communications skills would achieve an Israel-Palestinian agreement, which eluded his White House predecessors. He was certain that his conviction could produce a peace accord in a region that has never experienced intra-Arab peaceful coexistence, intra-Arab tolerance, intra-Arab compliance with agreements and not one Arab democracy in the last 1,400 years.  He promoted “Give peace a chance” in a region, where too many sanctify martyrdom (suicide bombing) rather than life.

In 2013, Obama harbors much of his 2009 approach towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, while recognizing that pressuring Israel radicalizes the Palestinians. He ignores the centrality of Islam, which prohibits “infidel” sovereignty in the abode of Islam.  Moreover, notwithstanding the US financial and diplomatic embrace of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas and Salaam Fayyad have moved closer to Hamas, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, fueling anti-US, anti-Israel and anti-Jewish sentiments via incitement and hate-education in Palestinian schools, mosques and media.  Is Obama aware that the application of moral equivalence to Israel (the role model of counter-terrorism and unconditional alliance with the USA) and to the Palestinians (the role model of international terrorism and allies of the Nazis, Communist Bloc, Saddam Hussein, Khomeini and Bin Laden) has been morally-wrong and strategically-flawed? Is he aware that unprecedented Israeli gestures (e.g., 1993 Oslo Accord, 2005 uprooting Jewish settlements) were interpreted as weakness, propelling unprecedented hate-education, terrorism and non-compliance?

In 2009, the US President approached Israel as a minor strategic ally, possibly a burden, obstructing US ties with Muslims.

In 2013, Israel is highlighted as the only stable, reliable, predictable, capable, democratic and unconditional ally of the US, in contrast with the increasingly violent, intolerant, unpredictable, unstable, unreliable and anti-US Arab Street.  US-Israel strategic cooperation has been considerably upgraded, independent of US-Israel disagreements over the Palestinian issue, and as a result of regional and global developments which are much more significant than the Palestinian issue.  Shared values, mutual threats, joint interests and Israel’s cutting edge defense and commercial technologies and battle tactics have underscored the mutually-beneficial, two-way-street, win-win ties between the US and Israel.

In order to avoid the errors of the 2009 visit, and attain the key goals of the 2013 visit – the bolstering of the US posture of deterrence and power projection in the face of Iran and the boiling lava on the Arab Street, regardless of the Palestinian issue – President Obama may have to walk the (military) walk, not just talk the (diplomatic and economic) talk.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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