Facebook Feed

5 days ago

Yoram Ettinger
2023 Jewish demographic momentum in Israel: bit.ly/40qV0aV ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

4 weeks ago

Yoram Ettinger
Purim Guide for the Perplexed 2023: bit.ly/3ZdlxHY ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

4 weeks ago

Yoram Ettinger
אתגר מרכזי לביטחון לאומי: bit.ly/3xkSwh1 ... See MoreSee Less
View on Facebook

The 2012 Arab Street-Driven Security Requirements

The 2012 stormy Arab Street is not heading towards a solution; it is heading towards exacerbated problems of state-sponsored terrorism, uncertainty and shifty regimes, policies and alliances. The 2012 Arab Street will not highlight the Arab Ghandis, Mandelas and MLKs; it will be dominated by the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood, which embraces Muhammad-style Islam as the sole-tolerated religious, political, social, military and moral compass. The Muslim Brotherhood aims to dominate the Abode of Islam, as a prelude to the physical subjugation of the morally-inferior Abode of the Infidel.

On December 29, 2011, Adel Al Toraifi, the Editor-in-Chief of the London-based Arab affairs magazine, Al Majalla accurately analyzed the Muslim Brotherhood’s political sophistication. He quoted the former Muslim Brotherhood’s Supreme Guide, Mahda Akef: “for us, democracy is like a pair of slippers that we wear until we reach the bathroom, and then we take them off.” Al Toraifi maintains that “The Muslim Brotherhood is skilled at political planning and tactics…. Those who expect – or hope – that the Muslim Brotherhood will…resemble the Islamist experience in Turkey, have no concrete evidence for this whatsoever, rather this is merely wishful thinking.”

The deterioration of the Arab Street is, primarily, a derivative of the 1,400 year suppressive, intolerant monopoly of Islam over the religious, educational, cultural and, sometimes, the political and military sectors of Arab societies. Egypt was considered a relatively moderate Muslim country, but 2011 ushered in the Muslim Brotherhood in full force, awaiting the opportunity to assert itself, politically, between the Persian Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean.

The 2012 Arab Street will be further fueled by the American evacuation of Iraq. The evacuation could produce a volcanic eruption, in Iraq, consuming the pro-US regime in Baghdad, playing into the hands of Iran, which aspires to dominate the Persian Gulf and promotes anti-US regimes in the Mid-East and beyond (e.g. Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador). The US departure from Iraq could, also, wreak havoc in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States.

While the US’ strategic arm in the Mid-East is getting shorter, the Russian and Chinese Mid-East profile is growing stronger, providing a tailwind to anti-US regimes.

The 2012 Arab Street could dwarf the seismic events of 2011, impacting national and regional security and the resulting security requirements. The lower the stability and life-expectancy of Mid-East regimes, the shiftier are their ideology, policies and commitments (e.g., Egypt’s and Jordan’s peace accords with Israel). The higher the volatility of the Arab Street, the higher is the security threshold and requirements in the face of that volatility. Moreover, the shorter the US’ strategic arm, the less effective is its posture of deterrence, the more adrenalized are rogue regimes, the more acute is the threat of war and the higher are the security requirements in the face of the stormy Arab Street.

The threshold of Israel’s security requirements is rising as the threats are mounting.

According to Lt. General (ret.) Tom Kelly, Chief of Operations in the 1991 Gulf War, “I cannot defend this land (Israel) without that terrain (West Bank)… Without the West Bank, Israel is only 8 miles wide at its narrowest point. That makes it indefensible.” General (ret.) Al Gray, former Commandant, US Marine Corps stated that “missiles fly over any terrain feature, but they don’t negate the strategic significance of territorial depth…. To defeat Israel would require the Arabs to deploy armor, infantry and artillery into Israel…. It remains true in the era of modern missiles.”

The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges – the cradle of Jewish history – constitute the most effective tank obstacle (a 2,000ft-3,000ft slope over-towering the Jordan Valley, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and 80% of Israel’s infrastructure). It is a dream platform of invasion to the 8-15 miles wide pre-1967 Israel, in the most conflict-ridden, unpredictable and treacherous neighborhood in the world, where there has never been an intra-Arab comprehensive peace, or intra-Arab compliance with most intra-Arab agreements. The Judea and Samaria mountain ridges are indispensable to Israel’s survival in the raging Mid-East.

An insecure Israel would be a liability, rather than an asset, to the US. An insecure Israel would not be able to deter an Arab invasion of Jordan – which could have spilled over into Saudi Arabia – as Israel did in September 1970, when the US was bogged down in Vietnam. An insecure Israel would not be able to perform as “the largest US aircraft carrier which does not require a single US soldier, saving the US $20 billion annually (the late General Alexander Haig).”




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb

Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

Support Appreciated

 

 

 

 

 




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb