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Israeli Election, 2013 – a Reality Check

The political system

The January 22, 2013 Israeli election highlighted the urgent need to overhaul Israel’s entire political system, not just the proportional electoral system. 

34 parties participated in the proportional election, and 12 parties (including anti-Israel parties) will be represented in the next unicameral 120 member legislature, the Knesset.  The more fragmented the Knesset, the more difficult it is for the Prime Minister to establish – and to manage – the governing multi-party coalition.  The Israeli political system is replete with mid-size and small-size parties, devoid of any large-size parties.  Therefore, the political system tends to be volatile and unmanageable, lending itself to short-lived governments and early elections.

The proliferation of political parties reflects voters’ frustration with the political system, which is top heavy on freedom of association and expression, but very low on accountability – by elected officials – to the constituent.  While voters elect parties, they do not directly elect their representatives, who are therefore not constrained by an effective system of checks and balances and separation of powers (e.g., legislators are also members of the executive).  Loyalty to the leaders of their parties supersedes loyalty to their constituents.

Hawks VS Doves

While the January, 2013 campaign rarely referred to national security issues, it underlined – once again – Israel’s hawkish majority.  The hawkish bloc of Likud-Beitenu (31 seats), The Jewish Home (12 seats), Shas (11 seats) and Agudah (7 seats) is bolstered by Yesh Atid (19 seats) which owes some of its seats to support by moderate hawks.  Yesh Atid’s leader, Yair Lapid, made a commitment – at Ariel University in Samaria – to maintain Israeli control of the settlement blocs and oppose the repartitioning of Jerusalem.

The hawkish Knesset majority reflects the frustration caused by the 20 year old Oslo Process.  Most Israelis do not trust the Palestinian Authority and do not believe in the viability of further concessions to the Palestinians.  The number of Israeli hawks exceeds the number of centrists, which exceeds the number of doves.  Thus, the most dovish party (Meretz) is represented by 6 seats, the mildly dovish Labor by 15 seats and the centrists Yesh Atid (19) and The Movement (6) 25 seats.

It’s the domestic agenda, stupid!

Irrespective of the boiling Arab Street and Israel’s recent war against Hamas terrorists in Gaza, the disillusionment with the “peace process” catapulted the domestic agenda to dominance.  

The Israeli constituency expects the next governing coalition to forge a domestic common-denominator, notwithstanding deep national security and foreign policy disagreements among the coalition parties. The key issues which preoccupy most constituents are the need to prevent a global-like economic meltdown; to carefully manage severe budget cuts; to buttress the middle class; to reform the housing market; to introduce significant rental housing; to expedite the integration of the ultra-orthodox youth into military conscription; and to overhaul the entire political system. Averting the threat of a nuclear Iran is the only front-seat national security issue.

The Arab constituent

The traditionally low turnout of Israeli Arabs during national election derives from their disillusionment with the preoccupation of the Arab parties with Israel-bashing, rather than with pressing domestic Arab concerns: crime, drugs, education, employment and infrastructure.  In defiance of the Arab League which urged Israeli Arabs to vote in order to weaken the Jewish State, the Arab turnout was only 57% (Jewish turnout was a disappointing 67%), compared with more than 80% Arab turnout during municipal elections. 

The discrepancy between rank and file Israeli Arabs on one hand and the Israeli Arab parties on the other hand is widening as the Israelization process of Israeli Arabs takes roots.  Israeli Arabs are rapidly integrated into Israel’s medical, pharmaceutical, banking, industrial, commercial, agricultural, cultural, sports and political infrastructures.  While many Israeli Arabs express their frustration by abstention, an increasing number votes for non-Arab Israeli parties. Therefore, the relative representation of the Arab parties (11, out of 120, Knesset Members) is substantially lower than their proportion in the population (18%).

Winners and Losers

“Kick the rascals out” dominated the January, 2013 election and highlighted the major winners, producing an unprecedented wave of new legislators: 47 new Knesset Members, a 40% turnover!  The 19 members of Lapid’s party – all freshmen – and the 12 members of Bennett’s party – mostly freshmen – represent the new wave sweeping the Knesset.

The Knesset is the youngest ever with a record number of women (26) and settlers (17).

While Prime Minister Netanyahu will launch his third term in office, he lost 25% of his party’s Knesset representation, reduced to 31 – from 42 – seats.  However, Netanyahu can snatch a victory out of the jaws of defeat by adhering to the voice of the constituents and forming a domestic-driven coalition with a game-changing domestic agenda.

 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

Support Appreciated

 

 

 

 

 




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