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Romney’s Visit to Israel and the Jewish Vote

Republican Presidential candidate Romney’s July 2012 visit to Israel will underscore Romney’s appreciation of Israel’s enhanced strategic importance. Israel’s unique contribution to the US national security is highlighted against the background of the increasingly violent, fragmented, unpredictable and unreliable, seismic “Arab Street;” the intensifying threats of radical Islam, Islamic terrorism and a nuclear Iran to US economic and national security interests; the withdrawal of the US from Iraq and Afghanistan; the upgraded profile of Russia and China in the Middle East; and the cuts in the US defense budget.

In addition, Governor Romney’s visit to Israel will reaffirm the critical role played by the Jewish vote in the November presidential and congressional elections.

While the majority of US Jewry resides in New York (1.6 million) and California (1.2 million) – two solid Democratic states – the smaller Jewish communities – in the “toss up” states – could play a decisive role in determining the next President of the USA. Moreover, while the Jewish population of New York (especially) and California is gradually decreasing, the Jewish population in some of the “swing states” is increasing.

The outcome of the 2000 presidential election was determined by less than 1,000 Jewish voters in Florida. The outcome of the 2012 presidential election could be determined by the Jewish vote in three of the top seven electoral states, which are also “battleground states”: Florida (29 electors; Jewish population 650,000), Pennsylvania (20 electors; 300,000) and Ohio (18 electors; 150,000).

Other “battleground states” with a critical mass of Jewish constituents are Virginia (13 electors; 100,000), Arizona (11 electors; 100,000), Colorado (9 electors; 100,000), Missouri (10 electors; 60,000), Nevada (6 electors; 80,000), North Carolina (15 electors; 30,000), Wisconsin (10 electors; 30,000) and possibly Michigan (16 electors; 85,000), Minnesota (10 electors; 50,000) and Indiana (11 electors; 20,000).

Since the seventeenth century, when the early Jewish migrants reached New Amsterdam (1621), Massachusetts (1649), Rhode Island (1658) and South Carolina (1695), US Jewry has been more interested in domestic and global politics than most Americans. Therefore, Jews play a disproportionate role in national politics, demonstrating a higher turnout on election date than any other ethnic group. Thus, two percent of the population amounts to a four percent share of the presidential electorate. Moreover, Jewish campaign contributions feature prominently, especially, in the most critical early stages of House and Senate races.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no monolithic Jewish voting bloc. The Democrats have a lock on older straight-ticket Jewish constituents due to historical circumstances: Democratic Party openness to Jews since FDR’s grand New Deal coalition; Jewish concentration in the larger Democratic-dominated urban centers; Jewish association with labor unions; and Jewish identification with social causes and the underdog. However, younger Jews increasingly join the ranks of independent voters, who vote on the merit of the candidate, rather than the party. They are less-driven by the still-dominant social Jewish agenda: human services, abortion, Supreme Court appointments, illegal migration, state-church, school prayer, gay rights and affirmative action. This trend is bolstered by demography, which features higher fertility rates among modern-orthodox and ultra-orthodox Jews, who are conservatively-inclined.

Furthermore, as the number of Independent Jewish voters grows, so grows the critical mass of Jewish constituents – which could tilt the election in “bellwether states” – who are swayable when it comes to crucial Israeli and Jewish issues.

For example, Republican President Eisenhower won 36% (1952) and 40% (1956) of the Jewish vote on the coattails of his role in crushing Nazi Germany and liberating Jews from the concentration camps. Republican President Reagan received 39% of the Jewish vote in 1980, benefitting from his close ties with the Jewish community and from President Carter’s negative record on Israel. Republican President Bush #41 profited from Reagan’s pro-Israel reputation, and therefore received 35% of the Jewish vote in 1988. However, it plunged to 11% in 1992 due to the Bush-Baker scornful attitude toward Israel and the Jewish community.

Presidential candidate Romney attempts to leverage the new trend among Jewish voters. Will he follow in the footsteps of Eisenhower and Reagan, thus making a difference in some of the “battleground states?”




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb

Congress – the co-equal and systematic ally of Israel

Presidents propose and Congress disposes

On September 23, 2021, the US House of Representatives voted 420:9 to replenish the Israeli-developed defensive “Iron Dome” missiles, which are increasingly manufactured – and eventually exported – by the US defense company Raytheon, that benefits from the battle-tested “Israeli laboratory.”

The overwhelming vote reflects Congressional realization that the “Iron Dome”:

*Enhances Israel’s posture of deterrence, which is critical to the survival of all pro-US Arab regimes and minimization of regional instability;
*Reduces the need for full-scale Israeli wars on Palestinian and Islamic terrorism;
*Provides an alternative to Israeli military ground-operations against Palestinian terrorists, which would entail substantial Israeli and Palestinian fatalities;
*Represents joint US-Israel interests, militarily and technologically, in the face of mutual threats (e.g., Islamic terrorism) and mutual challenges (e.g., developing world-class, game-changing technologies).

*Constitutes another example of the systematic support by Congress of enhanced US-Israel cooperation.

The decisive role played by Congress in the replenishment of the “Iron Dome” underscores the cardinal rule of the US political system: The President proposes, but Congress disposes.

The involvement of Senators and House Representatives in foreign policy and national security-related issues has surged since the Vietnam War, Watergate and Iran Gate scandals, the dismantling of the USSR (which transformed the world from a bi-polar to a multi-polar) and rapidly-expanding globalization.

In fact, former Secretary of State, Jim Baker, complained about the growing congressional assertiveness in the area of foreign policy: “You can’t conduct foreign policy with 535 Secretaries of State….”  Former Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney, criticized Congress for micromanaging the defense budget: dictating how much to spend on particular weapons, imposing detailed requirements and programmatic restrictions, venturing into policy-setting and requesting that the Department of Defense submits mountains of reports.

Congressional muscles 

The US Congress is the most powerful legislature in the world, and it has demonstrated its co-equal, co-determining muscle in the areas of foreign and defense policies on many occasions, such as:

*Imposing sanctions against foreign countries in defiance of Presidents Clinton, Obama and Trump (e.g., Egypt – 2012, Iran – 1996-97 and 2013, Russia – 2017);
*Non-ratification of the 2015 JCPOA, which enabled withdrawal by the US;
*The 2009 non-closure of the Guantanamo Detention Camp was led by Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (NV-D), in defiance of President Obama.
*The 2009 non-confirmation of Charles Freeman to the Director of National Intelligence was led by Senator Chuck Schumer (NY-D);
*The 1999 non-ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in defiance of President Clinton and the international community;
*The unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation took place despite stiff opposition by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker;
*The Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act overrode President Reagan’s veto;
*The 1984 Boland Amendment aborted President Reagan’s financial and military aid to anti-Communist elements in Nicaragua;
*The 1983 blocking of President Reagan’s attempted coup against the Surinam pro-Soviet regime;
*The 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act mandated congressional authorization of surveillance of persons and organizations, which may threaten national security;
*The 1975/76 Tunney (CA-D) and Clark Amendments stopped financial and military covert support of the opposition to the pro-Soviet regime in Angola;
*The 1973 Church-Case Amendment ended funding of military involvement in Southeast Asia;
*The 1973 War Powers Act overrode President Nixon’s veto;
*The Jackson-Vanik Amendment preconditioned aid to Moscow upon free immigration.

Congress empowered by the Constitution

As documented in the aforementioned paragraphs, one is advised to note that while Congress is preoccupied with District and State issues, it has the power to both propose and dispose in the areas of foreign and defense policies.

The US Constitution aspires for a limited government and a non-monarchical president, and therefore does not limit Congress to overseeing the budget. It provides the Senate and the House of Representatives with the power to act on strategic issues and policy-setting.

The Constitution accords Congress ”the power of the purse,” oversight of government operations, ratification of treaties, confirmation of key appointments, declaration of war, funding of military operations and cooperation with foreign entities, creation and elimination of government agencies, imposing sanctions on foreign governments, etc.

In other words, the President is the “commander in-chief” within constraints, which are set by Congress.




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb