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Bush’s Expectations of Sharon

Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, has expressed the world view of the Bush Administration, stating that “Passivity in face of threats, breeds more violence.”

Prime Minister Sharon will meet in DC the George W. Bush Administration, which – unlike the Bill Clinton Administration – considers Israel a potential strategic ally in the context of global and regional conflicts between US values and interests and those of radical regimes.

The Bush Administration’s order of priorities in the Mideast does not focus on the Oslo Process and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Rather, it focuses on three major threats, which have been largely independent of the Arab-Israeli conflict: Islamic terrorism, the proliferation of ballistic missiles and the threat of radical regimes such as Iraq and Iran. ISRAEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVANCE THE US BATTLE AGAINST EACH OF THESE THREATS, irrespective of US-Israel disagreements over the Arab-Israeli conflict. On the other hand, THE PLO – AND SOME OF THE ARAB REGIMES – HAVE PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN EXACERBATING EACH OF THESE THREATS!

SHARED VALUES, JOINT INTERESTS AND MUTUAL THREAT – RATHER THAN A JOINT STANCE ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE – HAVE FORGED THE FOUNDATION OF THE SPECIAL TIES BETWEEN THE US AND ISRAEL. President Bush and Vice President Cheney will not adopt the Likud Party platform. They may exert temporary forms of pressure on Israel. However, unlike the Clinton Administration and just like the Reagan Administration, THEY WILL NOT ALLOW A SHORT-TERM TENSION OVER A SECONDARY PRIORITY (OSLO PROCESS OR THE GOLAN HEIGHTS) TO UNDERMINE THE BENEFITS EMBEDDED IN THE LONG-TERM US-ISRAEL MUTUALLY-BENEFICIAL COOPERATION TOWARD A TOP PRIORITY (REGIONAL THREATS).
In 1970, in response to a request by President Nixon, Israel demonstrated its capabilities and willingness to cooperate with the US, in order to promote joint essential concerns. Israel deployed its reserve and regular military, rolling back the pro-Soviet Syrian invasion of pro-US Jordan. Israel’s mobilization prevented the downfall of King Hussein and a radical pro-Soviet domino scenario into Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt, with its devastating energy repercussions. It spared the US the very costly need to deploy its already-stretched forces, during the Vietnam and Cambodia Wars, which could have caused another USSR-USA confrontation. In 1981, Israel bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor, providing the US with the conventional option against Saddam in the 1991 Gulf War. It spared the US a horrific nuclear war, along with its massive human losses and mega billion dollar cost. In 1982, Israel shared with the US the military tactics and technologies, which devastated Soviet-made Syrian aircraft and air-defense systems. The Israeli operation saved the US tax-payer a few billion dollars in R&D expenditures and vital time required to develop similar technologies and capabilities. It eroded the Soviet strategic posture and upgraded that of the US.

The US would have to deploy tens of thousand of US servicemen, costing some $100BN per annum, in order to replace Israel’s contribution to US interests in term of deterrence, intelligence, R&D, joint exercises, operations, runways, ports, prepositioning of military systems and ammunition, military hospitals, etc.

The Israeli strategic profile in the Mideast was not designed, or capable, to face off the Soviet strategic threats. On the other hand, Israel has been endowed with capabilities, fitting for regional tactical threats, currently facing the US. These threats have proliferated and intensified since the demise of the USSR, hence the potential enhanced role of Israel as a strategic ally of the US.

Attesting to Israel’s unique contribution to US strategic agenda, former Secretary of State, Al Haig, referred to Israel as the largest pro-US aircraft carrier, which doesn’t require US personnel, and can’t be sunk. Major General George Keegan, former Director of Air Force Intelligence added that Israel equals five CIAs in terms of intelligence-sharing and power projection.

The world view of the Bush Administration, and its order of strategic priorities, constitute a unique potential for the upgrading of Israel’s strategic alliance with the US. However, the realization of such a potential depends upon Israel turning the clock forward, once again becoming a role-model for counter-terrorism and steadfastness at any price, rather than (as it has been since the 1993 Oslo Process) a role model of vacillation in face of terrorism and concessions at any price.




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Israel – from a strategic liability to a strategic asset

“Israel did not grow strong because it had an American alliance. It acquired an American alliance because it had grown strong” (Prof. Walter Russell Mead, a leading historian of US foreign policy).

In 1948, Israel was misconstrued by the State Department as a burden upon the US, too feeble to withstand an all-out Arab military offensive, jeopardizing US ties with the Arab World and potentially pro-Soviet.

However, since 1967, Israel has emerged as the most effective, reliable and democratic ally of the US, and a formidable force-multiplier for the US.

For example:

*The June 1967 Israeli military victory devastated the pro-Soviet Egyptian military, while Egypt was on its way to become the pan-Arab leader, aiming to topple the pro-US regimes of the Arab oil-producing countries, at a time when the US was heavily dependent upon the Persian Gulf oil.  The resounding Israeli victory spared the US a huge economic and national security setback, and denied the USSR a dramatic geo-strategic gold mine.

*25 US military experts went to Israel to study the lessons of the 1967 Six Day War, and to examine the captured Soviet military systems.  Their findings upgraded the performance of the US armed forces and defense industries.

*As a result of the benefits derived by the US, a team of 50 experts arrived in Israel following the 1973 War, collecting information, which benefited the US militarily and industrially, bolstering the US defense of Europe in the face of Soviet threats.

*The December 1969 “Operation Rooster 53” highlighted Israel’s unique intelligence and battle tactic capabilities, which were shared with the US.  An Israeli commando unit snatched from Egypt an advanced Soviet P-12 radar system, which was stationed throughout the world. The Soviet radar was studied by Israel and transferred to the US, as were additional Soviet military systems, enhancing the capabilities of the US intelligence, special operations forces and the US defense industries.

According to the late Senator Daniel Inouye, who was the Chairman of the Appropriations and Intelligence Committees, the value of the Soviet radar to the US defense industries and armed forces was around $3bn.  He added that the scope of intelligence shared with the US, by Israel, exceeded the intelligence shared with the US by all NATO countries combined.

*In 1966 and 1989 Israel acquired MIG-21 and MIG-23 Soviet combat planes through defecting Iraqi and Syrian pilots. The planes were shared with the US, impacting the global balance of power, and enhancing the performance of the US Air Force and the aerospace industries.

*In 1970, Israel manifested its pro-US posture of deterrence by forcing – through its military presence on the Golan Heights – a pull-back of the pro-Soviet Syrian invasion of pro-US Jordan.  Israel spared the US either a loss of an Arab ally, or the need to get involved militarily in an intra-Arab war, while it was bogged down in Southeast Asia. Moreover, the toppling of the pro-US Jordanian regime would have threatened the existence of the pro-US oil-producing regimes in the neighboring Persian Gulf, while the US was heavily dependent upon Persian Gulf oil. Thus, Israel spared the US a major economic and national security blow, and denied the USSR a geo-strategic bonanza.

*The lessons of the July 4, 1976 Entebbe Rescue Operation – which underscored Israel as a role model of pro-active, daring and innovative counter-terrorism – were shared with the US intelligence and special operations forces.

*The 1981 Israeli destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor – in defiance of fierce US opposition – spared the US the potential devastation of a nuclear confrontation during the 1991 Gulf War. It saved the pro-US oil-producing Arab regimes from the jaws of Saddam Hussein.

*In the October 1982 “Operation Mole Cricket 19,” Israel’s Air Force destroyed 29 Soviet surface-to-air missile batteries operated by Syria, perceived to be impregnable. It was the first time that a Western-equipped air force destroyed a Soviet-built surface-to-air missile network.  In the process, in the biggest air battle since the Korean War, the Israeli Air Force downed 82 Soviet MIG combat planes without a single loss to Israel’s Air Force. The game-changing Israeli battle tactics, including jamming technologies, were shared with the US armed forces, bolstering the US military edge over the USSR.

*The 2007 Israeli destruction of the Syria-North Korea-Iran nuclear reactor, spared the region and the globe a potential nuclearized civil war in Syria.

*In 2022, against the backdrop of the highly-vulnerable pro-US Arab regimes, the growing vacillation of Europe, and the intensifying threat of the anti-US Sunni and Shiite terrorism, Israel stands out as “the largest US aircraft carrier,” which does not require a single American soldier on board, sparing the US the need to deploy to the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean additional aircraft carriers and ground divisions.

*In 2022, Israel’s posture of deterrence plays a key role in preventing the collapse of the pro-US Arab regimes and the dominance of the anti-US Iran’s Shiite Ayatollahs and the anti-US Sunni Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, which is crucial to global trade, the war on anti-US terrorism and the US-Russia-China balance of power.

*To paraphrase Prof. Walter Russell Mead’s observation: Israel’s posture of deterrence is not growing stronger due to the recent peace accords with Arab countries. Arab countries concluded peace accords with Israel due to the fact that Israel’s posture of deterrence is growing stronger.

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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb