Inclusion, in the population census, of Palestinians living abroad for over a year

A background to the following document from the 1997 Palestinian census, which was reconfirmed during the 2007 Palestinian census and by Israeli demographers who participated in the Palestinian census: Contrary to internationally accepted standards, the Palestinian Authority includes in its population census over 400,000 residents (mostly from Judea & Samaria) who are abroad for over a year. In addition, some 300,000 Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted as Israeli and West Bank Arabs. Also, over 100.000 (mostly West Bank) Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs, are similarly double-counted. Signigicant inconsistencies were documented between the birth records of the Palestinian Health Ministry and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), as well as between the migration data of the PCBS and the computerized records of the international passages in the West Bank and Gaza.

Census Coverage

A comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:

De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.
De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.

For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.

1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and place of residence in the Palestinian territories.

2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.

3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.

B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has audited the Palestinian data since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 150,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*A 390,000 Arab net-emigration from Judea & Samaria is excluded from the Palestinian census, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950. For example, 15,466 in 2022, 26,357 – 2019, 15,173 – 2017 and 24,244 – 2014, as documented by Israel’s Population and Migration Authority (exists and entries) in all the land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 3.02 births in 2021, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been under-reported – since the days of the British Mandate) for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.4 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2023: a 69% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897: a 39% and 9% Jewish minority. In 2023, a 69% Jewish majority benefiting from fertility tailwind and net-immigration. Arab fertility is Westernized, and Arab net-emigration from Judea and Samaria. No Arab demographic time bomb. A Jewish demographic momentum.

More data in this article and this short video.
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