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The Boomerang Effect of Restraint

Seventeen USS Cole sailors were murdered in October 2001 by Islamic terrorists in Aden, which has been a key training ground for Palestinian and Bin-Laden terrorists. But, the US refrained from a military response. 257 persons (twelve of them Americans) were murdered in August 1998 by Islamic terrorists, who blew up the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. But, the US retaliated by launching cruise missiles on insignificant targets in Sudan and Pakistan. Twenty four Americans were murdered by Islamic terrorists in June 1996 in Khobar, Saudi Arabia (19) and in November 1995 in Riad (5). However, there was no effective US military response. The 1991 Gulf War was prematurely concluded, and Iraq has persisted in developing nuclear, biological and chemical capabilities. It has encountered a restrained US bombing, rather than a determined US campaign to uproot the Saddam factor.

THE LOWERED COUNTER-TERRORISM PROFILE BY THE U.S. SENT A MESSAGE OF WEAKNESS, EMBOLDENING TERRORISTS and radicalizing their modes of operation. The tactic of restraint – and the illusion that negotiation is a viable option to eliminate terrorism – have facilitated the traumatic Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist acts against the US, hitting America’s soft belly and devastating the symbols of US strength.

On the other hand, PRESIDENT REAGAN PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF GLOBAL TERRORISM, in the wake of his 1986 bombing of Qaddafi palace and capital and his devastation of Libyan naval facilities and its international airport, in response to the murder of five GIs. Reagan realized that TERRORISM MUST BE ERADICATED AT ITS EBB. He did not accept restraint as an operational option in THE BATTLE OF DEMOCRACIES AGAINST TOTALITARIAN TERRORISM. The Reagan Administration also laid the groundwork to the current strategic cooperation between the US and Israel, its “Mideast Outpost” (per Palestinian media), in face of MUTUAL THREATS: Islamic terrorism, Iraq, Iran and ballistic missiles. WHILE ISRAEL ADVANCES THE BATTLE AGAINST THESE THREATS AND ADHERES TO SHARED VALUES, THE PLO AND MOST ARAB COUNTRIES NURTURE THESE THREATS AND ABHOR THE VALUES ESPOUSED BY WESTERN DEMOCRACIES. WHILE ISRAEL IDENTIFIES WITH ENHANCED U.S. PROFILE IN THE GULF AREA IN PARTICULAR AND THE MIDEAST IN GENERAL, THE PLO AND MOST ARAB COUNTRIES CONSIDER U.S. PRESENCE IN THE MIDEAST, AND U.S. VALUES, AS A CARDINAL CHALLENGE TO THEIR OWN ASPIRATIONS.

For instance, ARAFAT-APPOINTED MUFTI (highest Islamic clergy), Akrameh Sabri, incited his worshipers to “DESTROY THE US AND ITS AGENTS” during an August 24, 2001 sermon broadcast via PLO TV and radio. On May 25, 2001 he called upon all Muslims to rally for the release, from US prison, of Ramzy Yousef, the terrorist who attempted to BLOW UP THE TWIN TOWERS IN 1993. Arafat’s daily, Al-Khayat Al-Jadida, praised Palestinian suicidal bombers (September 11, 2001), URGING PALESTINIANS TO FOLLOW IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE “LEBANESE MARTYRS” WHO BLEW UP THE US MARINES HEADQUARTERS (241 KILLED) AND US EMBASSY (63 KILLED). Thus, Arafat has established THE LARGEST and THE MOST PROTECTED ANTI-US, ANTI-ISRAEL AND PRO-IRAQ/IRAN TERRORIST BASE IN THE GLOBE. But, Jerusalem and Washington DC have demonstrated restraint, in spite of PALESTINIAN ECSTATIC REACTION TO THE TWIN TOWERS/PENTAGON TERRORISM.

The mass massacre, conducted by Islamic terrorists in the US, serves as an additional ALARM FOR ISRAEL, which constitutes (access and demography wise) a much more convenient arena for Islamic terrorists. The thundering terrorist “success” in the US – just like the shameful Israeli flight from Southern Lebanon – has set a new threshold of success for Palestinian terrorists. Now, THEY AIM AT AN “ISRAELI EDITION” OF THE TWIN TOWERS/PENTAGON TERRORISM. Israel should act promptly, WITH NO RESTRAINT, to foil that aim, while the anti-terrorist rage is engulfing the US and Europe, before Iran and Iraq attain nuclear and improved ballistic capabilities, and before Palestinian terrorists implement their grand plan. The earlier Israel acts, the lower the Jewish and Palestinian blood toll, and therefore the slimmer the chance for a regional conflict. The longer Israel restrains itself, the higher the blood toll, which would make it more difficult for the Arab countries to do that which serves their interest – to refrain from shedding blood on behalf of the Palestinians (as they have done since 1948!).




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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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