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Video #5: Is the Palestinian issue a crown jewel of Arab policy-makers?

 

Video #5: http://bit.ly/1T8Ob83; the entire video-seminar: http://bit.ly/1ze66dS

1. Western policy-makers and media are preoccupied with Palestinian terrorism/unrest, but Arab policy-makers and media are preoccupied with regional sandstorms, not with the Palestinian tumbleweed. The myth of Palestinian centrality is promoted by Arab talk, but not Arab walk.  The Arabs have never considered the Palestinian issue a top priority, the crux of their conflict with Israel, nor the core cause of regional turbulence. However, they adhere to the ancient Arab colloquialism: “on words one does not pay customs.”

2.  In 2015, Egyptian President Al-Sisi – just like other pro-US Arab leaders – expands cooperation with Israel in defiance of Palestinian opposition.

3. In 2014, Arab regimes supported Israel’s war on Palestinian terrorism, which also haunts their own homeland security. 

4.  During 1977-79, President Sadat defied President Carter’s insistence upon placing the Palestinian issue at the center of the Egypt-Israel peace process.  Sadat was convinced that a Palestinian state would undermine regional stabilityDuring the October 1994 Israel-Jordan peace signing ceremony, Jordanian military leaders told their Israeli counterparts that “a Palestinian state would doom the Hashemite Kingdom.”

5. According to a July, 2014 study by the Congressional Research Service, generous Arab pledges to the Palestinians are largely unfulfilled. The annual US foreign aid to the Palestinians ($400mn) – financing hate-education and terrorism – is higher than the aid provided by Saudi Arabia – $260mn, the UAE – $50mn and Kuwait – $50mn

6. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) extended in 2015 $20bn assistance to Egypt and in 2006-7 $2.5bn aid to Lebanon. During 1980-1988, Riyadh provided $1bn annually to the Muslim rebels in Afghanistan, but only $100MN annually to the PLO, reflecting the Saudi order of priorities.  

7.  Why have Arabs showered Palestinians with rhetoric, but never with resources?  Arab leaders perceive Palestinians as a source of treachery, stabbing Arab hosts in the back, triggering civil wars and causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands Palestinians in Jordan (1970), Lebanon (1970-1976, 1983, 2007), Kuwait (1991) and Iraq (2003). No Arab country came to the rescue of those Palestinians. More Palestinians were killed, arrested and expelled by Arabs than by Israel.

8. In the early 1950s, Mahmud Abbas and Arafat led the Palestinian cell of the Muslim Brotherhood terror organization in Egypt, fleeing Egypt following an attempt to murder President Nasser. Syria offered them asylum, but in 1966, they perpetrated terrorism in Syria and were forced to flee to Jordan, which provide them with a platform to terrorize Israel. However, in 1970, they attempted to topple the Hashemite regime, triggering a civil war, which transferred them to Lebanon. By 1975, they plundered South Lebanon, aiming to topple the central regime in Beirut, igniting civil wars and the 1976 Syrian invasion of Lebanon. In 1990, the Palestinians stabbed the back of Kuwait, which absorbed 300,000 Palestinian allies of Mahmoud Abbas and Arafat, collaborating with Saddam Hussein’s invasion and destruction of Kuwait. Arab policy makers don’t forget and don’t forgive.    

9. The Arab World did not flexed its muscles during Israel’s battles against Palestinian terrorism in Gaza in 2009, 2012 and 2014, the 2000-2004 war on Mahmoud Abbas terrorism (2nd Intifada), the 1987-1991 Arafat-Abbas terrorism (1st Intifada) and the 1982-83 hot pursuit of Arafat-Abbas terrorists in Lebanon, which led to Arafat’s and Abbas’ expulsion from Beirut.

10. Arab League Foreign Ministers were invited to celebrate the November, 2012 UN vote for Palestinian non-member statehood. Only the Egyptian Foreign Minister and the Arab League Secretary General arrived.

11. The Red Carpet, which welcomes Palestinian leaders in the West, is transformed into a shabby rug upon landing in Arab capitals.  When will Western policy-makers comprehend Arab attitude towards the Palestinian issue?

12. The next video will address the assumption that the Palestinian issue is, supposedly, the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

   




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb

The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb