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Tzippi Livni doesn’t get it

Kadima Chairwoman, Livni “endorsed the idea that pressure from President Obama on Prime Minister Netanyahu is a service to Israel.”

In an August 5, 2011 “Atlantic Magazine” interview, Livni demonstrated miscomprehension of Israel’s maneuverability under US pressure, the impact of the Palestinian issue on US-Israel relations, the ideological gap between Obama and the US public and Congress and the fundamentals of the US political system.

According to Livni, the Netanyahu-Obama disagreement “puts [US Jews] in a situation in which they need to choose a side….It’s a nightmare….This is something new….” Really?

US pressure has been an integral part of US-Israel relations since 1948.  The US imposed a military embargo and considered financial sanctions, prodding Prime Minister Ben Gurion to refrain from the declaration of independence, to accept a UN trusteeship and Jerusalem’s internationalization, to end “occupation of the Negev” and to absorb and compensate Palestinian refugees.  In 1967, President Johnson warned Prime Minister Eshkol against pre-emptive war, annexation of Jerusalem and constructing Ramat Eshkol.  In 1981, Reagan threatened Prime Minister Begin with an embargo and a diplomatic crisis should Israel bomb Iraq’s nuclear reactor.  During 1948-1992, Israeli Prime Ministers generally defied US pressure, but (and therefore) strategic cooperation surged dramatically.  The US prefers allies that produce – rather than consume – national security, irrespective of defiance.

Livni considers the Palestinian issue a central axis of US-Israel relations. But, these relations evolve around the axis of shared values, interests and threats. Hence, the upgraded security cooperation following the 1970 Israeli-induced rollback of Syria’s invasion of Jordan, notwithstanding the rift over the 1949 lines “Rogers Plan.”  Two major strategic memoranda of understanding and a series of legislation were signed between 1983 and 1992, in spite of disagreements over the 1982 War in Lebanon, the “Reagan Plan,” the 1st Intifada and the Bush-Baker hostility toward Israel, but due to Israel’s contribution to the US defense industries, war on terrorism, missile defense and posture of deterrence. A critical mass of the US policy-makers realizes that US-Israel ties constitute a two-way mutually-beneficial street, regardless of the Palestinian issue.

Livni is oblivious to the impact of Obama’s worldview on US-Israel relations.  Obama considers the Holocaust – and not the 4,000 year history – as Israel’s moral foundation, classifying Israel as part of the “exploiting” Western World and the Arabs part of the “exploited” Third World. He is moving closer to the Muslim World and the UN and aims at clipping Israel’s wings morally, strategically and territorially. He does not view Israel as a strategic asset and believes that the prescription for the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict consists of the 1949 lines, exchange of land, repartitioning of Jerusalem, dismantling all Jewish settlements in Judea, Samaria and the Golan Heights and the resettlement of some Palestinian refugees in Israel.

Contrary to Jerusalem’s conventional wisdom, a US President is not omnipotent in national security affairs and is not “the government,” but only one among three equal arms of government. Congress – a bastion of support of Israel – has the “power of the purse” and can initiate, suspend, change and turn around policy. Its power is most evident during economic crises and as we approach the 2012 election. In 2010, the US constituent – the chief axis of US democracy and a systematic supporter of Israel – stated that Obama’s worldview represented a minority among voters and elected officials.

In order to advance US-Israel relations, Israel’s political elite is advised to study the US political system, upgrade ties with Congress – the most authentic representative of the public – and refrain from statements which add fuel to the fire of US pressure on Israel.

   

 

 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

Support Appreciated

 

 

 

 

 




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