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Yoram Ettinger
מזכיר המדינה בלינקן מתעלם מהמזה"ת ומאינטרס ארה"ב bit.ly/3XQrYjv ... See MoreSee Less
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Yoram Ettinger
The proposed Palestinian state (Western conventional wisdom vs. Middle East reality): bit.ly/3j7byUV ... See MoreSee Less
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Yoram Ettinger
Israel-Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian issue: bit.ly/3HDgGJC ... See MoreSee Less
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Yoram Ettinger
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The Threat of Iran’s Ayatollahs – Track Record vs. Speculation

US policy-makers who are negotiating a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear accord (JCPOA), should be aware that the most effective predictor of Iran’s future behavior is its past behavior.  Past performance – especially in the highly traditional Middle East – is a tangible and objective basis of assessment, while future behavior is subjective, speculative and fraught with uncertainty.

Ignoring the systematic and relentless anti-US track record of Iran’s Ayatollahs, since the 1978/79 revolution – which transformed Iran from “the American policeman of the Gulf” to a key epicenter of regional and global subversion, terrorism and wars – would be at the expense of regional and global stability, undermining vital US national security and economic interests.

However, the US Administration seems determined to conclude another accord with Iran, irrespective of Iran’s consistent track record of the fanatical anti-US education system, violation of agreements with the US and the Arab Gulf countries, and horrific violations of human rights and democracy.  Add to that, Iran’s regional and global proliferation of subversion, terrorism, wars, conventional and non-conventional military technologies, and close ties with North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan’s Taliban, Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Hamas and additional rogue entities.

US policy-makers consider the Ayatollahs credible partners for negotiation, amenable to peaceful-coexistence and power-sharing with their Arab Gulf States, notwithstanding the aforementioned track record, as well as Iran’s fueling the civil wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the persistent violent attempts by the Shiite Ayatollahs to topple every pro-US Sunni Arab regime, and the entrenchment of Iran’s drug-trafficking and terrorist cells in South and Central America.

Moreover, in order to advance negotiation with Iran, the US has waived the military and regime-change options, which is perceived by the Ayatollahs as weakness, as it would be by any rogue regime, especially in the Middle East.

Thus, while the US courts Iran’s Ayatollahs – which constitute a clear and present existential threat to all pro-US Arab regimes – it pressures and undermines the regional and domestic stature of the pro-US Egyptian and Saudi regimes, which may push the latter to more closely align themselves with Russia and China.

While US policy-makers assume that the Ayatollahs can be cajoled into a departure from their intrinsically fanatic goal of dominating the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and beyond – in return for a dramatic economic and diplomatic dividend – the Ayatollahs’ own track record has proven that they have never been driven by despair or economic benefits. They have always been driven by a non-compromising religious, ideological, historic vision of grandeur, aiming to bring the Western culture – and especially the USA – to submission.

In fact, the track record of the 2015 JCPOA documents that the Ayatollahs leveraged US generosity by bolstering their subversive and terrorist operations throughout the Middle East and beyond, boosting their ballistic program, acquiring military systems, intensifying domestic repression, and advancing their campaign against “the Great Satan:” the USA.

The US Special Envoy for Iran is Rob Malley is a true-believer in multilateralism (with Europe and the UN), rather than a unilateral US national security policy. He is convinced that Iran’s Ayatollahs can be enticed to amend their fundamental ideology and to peacefully-coexist with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman and other pro-US Arab countries.

Until recently, Malley – a key architect of the 2015 JCPOA – was the President and CEO (and co-founder) of George Soros’ cosmopolitan International Crisis Group. He was an informal foreign policy advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. Also, Malley served as Special Assistant to President Obama and Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf Region.

Will US policy-makers and the co-equal, co-determining House Representatives and Senators learn from the track record of the 2015 JCPOA and President Carter’s 1978/79 Iran policy – which trusted the Ayatollahs, provided a robust tailwind to their rise to power, while stabbing in the back the pro-US Shah – by avoiding costly mistakes?  Or, will they repeat critical mistakes at dire cost to regional and global stability, including US interests?

Will US policy-makers and legislators realize that the Iranian leopard may be capable of changing tactics, but not spots?!

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Secretary Blinken, Middle East reality and US interests

Secretary Blinken’s January 29-31, 2023 visit to Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Authority was another one of his milestones, well-intentioned – but erroneous – Middle East legacies. It has backfired on vital US interests, in general, and the pursuit of regional stability and peace, in particular.

Secretary Blinken in Egypt

*A major issue raised by President El-Sisi, during his meeting with Secretary Blinken, was the volcanic turbulence in Libya, which has traumatized the region since 2011, fueling Muslim Brotherhood terrorism in Egypt and overall Islamic terrorism in Africa and Europe.

*This turbulence was triggered by a US-led NATO military offensive against the Gaddafi regime, and was masterminded, largely, by key policy-makers in the Obama-Biden Administration. They included Antony Blinken, then National Security Advisor to Vice President Biden, and were led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, her close advisor and Director of Policy Planning Jake Sullivan, UN Ambassador Susan Rice and Special Assistant to President Obama Samantha Power.

*The offensive was motivated by noble values of human rights, but went astray due to an intrinsic misreading of the Middle East, in general, and Libya, in particular, where Gaddafi was not fighting innocent bystanders, but anti-US Islamic terrorists. In fact, these terrorists murdered the US Ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, following their US-facilitated victory over Gaddafi.

*While the aim of the offensive was to prevent a massive slaughter of non-combatant Libyans by Gaddafi, the outcome of the offensive has doomed Libya to decades of chaos, plagued by an ongoing slaughter house, which has dwarfed the worst casualty assessments made by Clinton and Blinken.

*The ill-advised offensive has transformed Libya – the soft underbelly of Europe – into one of the world’s largest platforms of anti-Western Islamic terrorists, drugs and arms traffickers.  It energized a global resurgence of Islamic terrorism, and became a home base for scores of terrorist militias and an arena of civil wars with the participation of Turkey, Qatar, Italy, Russia, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and France.

*Secretary Blinken’s well-intentioned, but misguided, human rights-driven policy has ignored the only choice facing the US in the Middle East, where human rights have not been complied by Arab regimes: a choice between pro-US human rights violating Arab regimes, or anti-US human rights violating Arab regimes.

*The refusal to accept that reality has also led to US military, financial and diplomatic pressure on the pro-US President Sisi – as well as the pro-US Saudi Crown Prince MBS and the pro-US UAE Crown Prince MBZ – to desist from the rough-handling of Muslim Brotherhood terrorists and the Iran-supported Houthi Yemenite terrorists, which the State Department establishment considers legitimate political, religious and social entities.

*This US policy – highlighted by the eagerness to conclude another accord with Iran’s Ayatollahs, who threaten the survival of every pro-US Arab Sunni regime – has pushed Egypt, Saudi Arabia. the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain closer to China and Russia.

Secretary Blinken in Israel and the Palestinian Authority

*As frustrated as Secretary Blinken is with the rogue conduct of Iran’s Ayatollahs, and notwithstanding the recently expanded US-Israel military drills, Blinken still opposes Israel’s determination that the 43-year-old diplomatic option has dramatically failed, while significantly bolstering the Ayatollahs anti-US global rogue strategy in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

*Blinken rejects the Israeli suggestion (shared by all pro-US Arab regimes) that a credible threat to resort to regime-change and military options is the only way to abort the regional and global terroristic, conventional, ballistic and nuclear Ayatollah threats. He still assumes that the apocalyptic Ayatollahs could be induced – via a generous financial and diplomatic package – into good faith negotiation, peaceful-coexistence and to abandon their 1,400-year-old fanatic, religious and megalomaniacal vision.

*Blinken’s policy toward Iran’s Ayatollahs and the Muslim Brotherhood – which pose a lethal threat to all Sunni Arab regimes – has eroded the US strategic credibility in pro-US Arab capitals, and has pushed Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – reluctantly – closer to China and Russia, militarily and commercially.

*According to the State Department spokesperson: “The Secretary will underscore the urgent need for the parties [Israel and the Palestinians] to take steps to deescalate tensions… [and] put an end to the cycle of violence that has claimed too many innocent lives….”

*Once again, Secretary Blinken resorts to the immoral moral-equivalence, failing to distinguish between PA-incited Palestinian terrorists (killed by Israel) and Israeli civilians (murdered by Palestinian terrorists). Inadvertently, moral equivalence energizes Palestinian terrorism, while aiming to constrain Israel’s counter-terrorist efforts.

*Secretary Blinken’s visit to Ramallah enhanced legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, while the latter has enshrined, since 1993, K-12 hate-education, which has brainwashed Palestinian youth against the existence of the “infidel” Jewish State. This rogue education system has been the most authentic reflection of the Palestinian vision/aspiration – consistent with the 1959 and 1964 charters of Fatah and the PLO, which focus on the annihilation of the pre-1967 “Zionist entity.”  The PA education system has become the most effective hot house and production-line of terrorists and suicide-bombers.

*Blinken has accorded more weight to Palestinian diplomatictalk than to the Palestinian hate-walk and its induced terrorism.  He has ignored the fact that a prerequisite to meaningful negotiation and peace is the uprooting of hate-education, mosque incitement, generous monthly allowances to terrorists’ families, and the glorification of terrorists through public monuments, schools and other institutions.

*Secretary Blinken attempts to convince Israel that the establishment of a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for bolstering Middle East stability and concluding an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace treaty. However, such a proposal should be assessed against the backdrop of the systematic failure of all State Department’s proposals to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.  They failed because they ignored the Palestinian track record, the non-central role of the Palestinian issue in the Middle East, and due to the preoccupation with the Palestinian issue, which yielded a Palestinian veto power.

*In fact, Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan were successfully concluded by bypassing the Palestinian issue, and focusing on Arab – not Palestinian – interests, which are increasingly served by enhanced defense and commercial cooperation with Israel. Arabs do not cut off their noses to spite their faces.

*Blinken ignores Middle East reality, which highlights the non-centrality of the Palestinian issue (no Arab-Israel war has erupted due to the Palestinian issue) and Arab order of priorities (no Arab country has flexed its military – and hardly its financial – muscle on behalf of the Palestinians), unless one assumes that the Palestinian-embracing Arab talk supersedes the indifferent/negative Arab walk.

*Unlike Secretary Blinken, the pro-US Arab Sunni regimes are aware of the despotic, corrupt and terroristic nature of the Palestinian Authority, and the rogue nature of the proposed Palestinian state, as evidenced by the Palestinian intra-Arab track record.  Arabs perceive the Palestinians as an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude, who bite the hands that feed them (Egypt – in the 1950s, Syria – 1960s, Jordan – 1968-1970, Lebanon – 1970-1982 and Kuwait – in 1990).

*The Arabs are also aware of the systematic Palestinian collaboration with anti-Western rogue entities, such as Nazi Germany, the Soviet Bloc, Iran’s Ayatollahs, Saddam Hussein, Latin American and other international terrorist organizations, Muslim Brotherhood terrorists, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and North Korea.

*The bottom line is that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the river, transforming Jordan into another platform of Islamic terrorism (just like Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen), and triggering a domino scenario into the Arabian Peninsula.  It would topple the pro-US Arab oil-producing regimes, undermine regional and global stability and economy and erode the US economy and geo-strategic posture, while advancing the fortunes of Russia, China, Iran’s Ayatollahs and anti-US Islamic Sunni terrorism.

Support Appreciated

 

 

 




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb