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The Syria-Iran Axis: A Critical Alliance; Not A Marriage Of Convenience

  1. Irrespective of the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israel’s existence, the ties with Iran constitutes – for the ruthless Assad regime – an indispensable financial, diplomatic and military means of survival.  The Syria-Iran axis bolsters Assad’s policies on the most critical fronts: Domestic, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Russia and the USA. Assad’s fundamental interests conflict with fundamental US values and interests.

 

  1.  Syria’s hostility toward the US dates back to the Cold War, when it sided with the USSR. The Syria-USSR axis originated in 1955, when the Golan Heights were occupied by Syria and when the US refrained from supplying Israel with advanced military systems. The root cause of the Syria-USSR axis was Syrian regional concerns: Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon.

 

  1. The decline of Moscow has raised the profile of Iran as Syria’s key strategic ally. Syria and Iran consider each other an extension of their strategic depth in face of mutual historical rivals and threats: Iraq, Turkey and the US.  The US threat is military and political – introducing democracy, which is a lethal threat to the rogue regimes in Damascus and Teheran. Hence, for instance, the Iran-Syria involvement in anti-US Iraqi and Afghani terrorism, aimed at uprooting US military presence from Iraq, Afghanistan and from the Gulf. Damascus fears a stable pro-US Iraq and prefers a chaotic Iraq.

 

  1. Syria & Iran coordinate efforts (probably with Russia) to leverage the expected US evacuation of Iraq, in order to realize Iranian domination of the Gulf and its natural resources and to advance Syrian inter-Arab aspirations. Syrian involvement in anti-US terrorism, and narco-terrorism, precedes its role in the murder of 300 US Marines during the 1983 bombing of US embassy and Marines HQ in Beirut.

 

  1. Iran & North Korea have assisted Syrian nuclear, biological and chemical military efforts. It has funded Syria military procurement from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, China and North Korea and has supplied Damascus with Iran-made missiles, tanks, armored personnel carriers and sophisticated intelligence and surveillance systems. Iran & North Korea have collaborated in the development of ballistic capabilities.  They established, in Syria, plants, which manufacture medium-range missiles and missile launchers. They have sent thousands of military and technological advisors to enhance Syrian military performance.

 

  1. Iran has supported – directly and via Hizballah – Syrian foothold in Lebanon, which is considered a prime Syrian national security goal.

 

  1.  Independent of the Golan Heights, the Assad regime considers the axis with Iran a long-term, strategic interest and not a tenuous-tactical marriage of convenience. For Assad to pry away from Iran, in return for the Golan Heights and US engagement, would require to de-Assadize himself. The Syrian leopard cannot change its stripes; it does, however, change its tactics.

 

  1. An Israeli giveaway of the Golan Heights would undermine US interests in the Mideast.  It would enable Syria to redeploy a few armored mechanized divisions, from the Golan front, to the Jordanian frontier, in an attempt to destabilize and topple the Hashemite regime in Jordan, which Damascus considers a Syrian province.  Such a development could have ripple effects into Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. A Golan giveaway would, also, enable Assad to redeploy a few divisions to the Turkish frontier, agitating anti-Turkish Kurdish terrorism, in his attempt to reclaim Hatay, which used to be Syrian territory, and constitutes a platform for US surveillance and intelligence installations. It would dramatically enhance the strategic maneuverability of pro-Iran, pro-Russia, pro-China and pro-North Korea Syria, which hosts a multitude of international terrorist organizations, which practices hate-education and which has systematically violated agreements concluded with Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel.



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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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