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The John Kerry-Atlantic Council Connection

President Obama’s foreign policy and national security teams reflect the worldview of the Atlantic Council, a prestigious, Washington-based multilateralism-driven think tank.  

Secretaries of State, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton have advocated engagement – rather than confrontation – with rogue regimes.  They were members of a tiny group that believed – until the recent atrocities in Syria – that Bashar Assad was a generous, constructive leader, a reformer and a man of his word. Kerry was a frequent flyer to Damascus, dining with Assad and his wife, considering Hafez and Bashar Assad partners for peace. Kerry and Clinton have implemented much of the Atlantic Council’s policy recommendations, demonstrating fealty to the UN, participating in several of the Council’s seminars and receiving special awards from the Council.  Upon the eruption of the recent violence on the Arab Street, they were staunch Arab-Springers, who believed that the mobs in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain were Facebook demonstrators, the reincarnation of Mahatma Gandhi and MLK, transitioning from tyranny to democracy.

Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel, was until recently the Chairman of the Atlantic Council, advocating negotiation with – rather than sanctions against – Iran. Just like the Council, Hagel considers the UN – the home court of anti-US regimes – the playmaker of international relations. 

UN Ambassador and Cabinet Member, Susan Rice – who served as foreign policy advisor for Obama and Kerry during their 2008 and 2004 Presidential campaigns – was a board member of the Atlantic Council, always displaying her UN-leaning worldview.

Obama’s former National Security Advisor, General Jim Jones, was Chairman of the Atlantic Council, currently serving as the Chairman of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.

A March, 2013 Atlantic Council IssueBrief highlights the Council’s containment state of mind: “It is clear that the unpredictable consequences of using military force would be more dangerous than a nuclear-armed Iran. It is clear that Iran is using North Korean tactics, successfully playing for time to develop nuclear weapons. Therefore, the United States must prepare now for the likelihood that its efforts [to prevent Iran’s nuclearization] will not succeed…. An Iran that is broadly unpopular in the region, and without major Arab allies, might be easier to deal with on nuclear issues.”

The document identifiedunanticipated opportunities, such as the development of Arab democracies…. It suggests that Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq are transitioning from authoritarian rule towards democracy, calling for “dignity, accountability, social justice and respect for individual rights…. The only way is forward toward a positive future.” 

Obama’s key advisor in selecting his national security team was Brent Scowcroft, the current Interim Chairman of the Atlantic Council, professing multilateral – and not a unilateral, independent US – political/military action.  Just like the aforementioned personalities, Scowcroft is a Palestine-Firster who subscribes to the myth that the Palestinian issue is the core cause of Middle East turbulence, the crown jewel of Arab policy-making and the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

However, irrespective of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Palestinian issue or Israel’s existence – and contrary to the worldview of the Palestine Firsters – the Arab Street has recently grown less predictable, more unstable, increasingly intolerant , explosively violent, significantly more Islamist and much more threatening to vital US and Free World interests.  For example, Iran is galloping towards nuclear capabilities, deepening its domination of Iraq and intimidating the pro-US oil-producing Persian Gulf states. Iraq has become a central arena for intra-Moslem, intra-Arab terrorist warfare. The Libyan civil war is boiling and Libyan military systems are exported to Muslim terrorists. The Egyptian Street is seething under the rule of the trans-national, imperialistic, subversive Muslim Brotherhood, which is collaborating with Iran.  The Sinai Peninsula has become a hub for al-Qaeda and other Moslem terrorists. The Syrian lava is fueled by unprecedented bloodshed, while threatening to consume the increasingly unstable pro-US Hashemite regime in Jordan, and possibly Lebanon and other pro-US Arab regimes. Kuwait and Bahrain are afflicted by Iran-supported disturbances. Yemen is further destabilized by tribal and ideological warfare with al-Qaeda involvement, threatening homeland security in Saudi Arabia.  Salafi Jihadists confront Tunisia’s security forces; political and ideological mass murders have returned to Algeria; and hostilities have intensified between Moslem Sudan and non-Moslem sovereign South Sudan.  For the last 1,400 years, the Arab Street has embraced terrorism, rejecting peace and stability.

 

In May, 2013 – contrasting the Atlantic Council state of mind – the President of the Czech Republic, Milos Zeman, said that the challenge of Arab tyranny and terrorism is a long-term phenomenon, requiring endurance in battle.  Will the Obama Administration embrace Zeman’s realism or the Atlantic Council’s worldview, which has shattered against the rocks of Middle Eastern reality?!

 

 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

Support Appreciated

 

 

 

 

 




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