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The Ayatollahs’ clear and present threat to the USA

www.TheEttingerReport.com, May 7, 2018, https://bit.ly/2roRHCm

A 6-minute video on the Ayatollas’ threat to the US: https://bit.ly/2zNDmUX

A 6-minute video on the Ayatollahs’ anti-US curriculum: https://bit.ly/2EuJwJm

  1. The tyrannical Ayatollah regime – oppressing Iran’s majority – is driven by a megalomaniacal ideology, clearly reflected by its K-12 curriculum, brainwashing Iran’s youth for full commitment to the “divine battle” against the US, “the Great Satan,” the “infidel” Sunni Muslims, Christians, Jews, Baha’is, Kurds, Azerbaijanis, etc.
  2. The Ayatollahs’ super-ideology – the leading sponsors of Islamic terrorism – is the commitment to global supremacy of Shite Islam through Jihad (“Holy War”), which is the permanent state of relations between “the believers” and the “apostates” and the “illegitimate infidels.” Hence, agreements with infidels are tenuous and non-binding. The Ayatollahs’ super-ideology is bolstered by a sacred allegiance to the fulfillment of the 2,600 year old Persian-Iranian regional and global imperialistic aspiration.
  3. The Ayatollahs’ super-geo-strategic goal, which supersedes economic and social matters, is the domination of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and beyond, irrespective of the Palestinian issue.
  4. The Ayatollahs’ super-hurdle/enemy is the USA, “the Great Satan.” Irrespective of the Ayatollahs’ anti-Israel rant, the Jewish State is their second-rate target, since it does not play a major role in determining the future of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.  In fact, the Ayatollahs’ machetes are at the throat of each pro-US Arab regime in the Persian Gulf region.
  5. The Ayatollahs pursue super-capabilities (in collaboration with North Korea, Pakistan, Venezuela, etc.) – ballistic and nuclear – in order to deter and defeat the super-enemy/hurdle and advance the super-goal, in adherence to their super-ideology. The Ayatollahs’ pursuit of super-capabilities has accelerated the proliferation of conventional and non-conventional military systems in the Middle East and beyond, adding fuel to global instability and violence.
  6. The Ayatollahs’ super-tactic, while communicating with the West, has been the Taqiyya: Islam-sanctioned dissimulation, deception and concealment of inconvenient data, aimed at protecting “believers” from “hostile” elements via illusive agreements. President Rouhani demonstrated his Taqiyya proficiency during his 2002 negotiation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, stating: “We are not pursuing nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, biological weapons….”
  7. The Ayatollahs’ advanced ballistic capabilities and terrorist network are sufficient to deal a major blow to the US national and homeland security, as well as economy – possibly forcing the US and NATO out of the Persian Gulf – by toppling the pro-US Arab “apostate” regimes in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain (Iran’s “province #14”), the UAE, Kuwait and Oman. Furthermore, the Ayatollahs’ advanced non-nuclear capabilities could solidify the expansion from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and the Mediterranean; dominate the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula along with the critical straits of Hormuz (Persian Gulf) and Bab al-Mandeb (Red Sea); intensify global Islamic terrorism; exacerbate political and military subversion in Africa, Asia and Latin America; enhance the Ayatollahs’ impact on the flow and price of oil, which would bankroll Teheran’s megalomaniac regional and global aspirations.
  8. The Ayatollahs’ nuclear capabilities may be required to extract further dramatic concessions from the US and NATO and rollback their military presence to their Western bases.
  9. Against the backdrop of the Ayatollahs’ track record, tactics and goals, the architects of the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have failed to realize that peaceful-coexistence and compliance with agreements, on the one hand, and the nature of the Ayatollahs, on the other hand, constitutes a classic oxymoron. Moreover, leopards don’t change spots, only tactics. Therefore, they failed to include in the JCPOA the following elementary-preconditions to the Ayatollahs’ abundant economic benefits, which are required in order to transform the nature of the Ayatollahs and reach a constructive agreement:
    *A permanent commitment to refrain from the development – or acquisition – of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction (including ballistic missiles);
    *The transfer of the complete research, development and production infrastructure of weapons of mass destruction to the USA (following in the footsteps of the December 2003 Libyan precedent);
    *Terminating and dismantling all agencies and units involved in subversive, terrorist and military operations outside Iran;
    *Uprooting the Ayatollahs’ K-12 hate-education and other forms of incitement (in mosques, media, etc.) against “apostates” and “infidels,” which have shaped the worldview of an increasing number of Iranians.  This has, also, carved the roadmap to the attainment of the Ayatollahs’ super-goals, and has served as the production-line of soldiers, willing to sacrifice their lives on the altar of such goals.
  10. The term “effective sanctions” against Iran, on the one hand, and global political reality, on the other hand, constitutes another oxymoron, playing into the hands of the Ayatollahs. The sanction-option will not divert the Ayatollahs from pursuing their megalomaniacal, principle-driven super-goal. It will not transform them into a peaceful-coexisting entity. Moreover, Russia and China (which consider the US an arch-rival), and some countries in Asia, Latin America and Europe, cannot be expected to implement anti-Ayatollahs sanctions in accordance with the US. At the same time, international deliberations over sanctions have provided the Ayatollahs more time to advance (and acquire) additional ballistic and nuclear technologies
  11. Forty years of US economic sanctions against North Korea – which does not harbor Iran-like megalomaniacal aspirations – have failed to topple the regime or prevent its nuclearization. Fifty years of sanctions against Cuba have, also, reaffirmed the constraints of sanctions against rogue regimes, which subject their people to ruthless dictatorships and ideological brainwashing.
  12. Preemption/prevention – and not deterrence or retaliation – may be the only effective means to spare the US and the globe the devastating cost of a mega-military confrontation against the Ayatollahs.
  13. An effective preemption should not be limited to critical nuclear facilities, but should simultaneously devastate Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities, thus minimizing the scope of Iran’s potential retaliation.
  14. An effective preemption must not involve the occupation of Iran, thus distinguishing itself from Iraq’s 1980 invasion of Iran, which coalesced all Iranians against a threat to their sovereignty.
  15. An effective preemption would provide a tailwind to the substantial domestic opposition, which was disillusioned by the lack of Western support in 2009. A credible threat to topple the regime, and not diplomatic engagement and appeasement – perceived by the Ayatollahs as battle fatigue and retreat – is required to uproot the Ayatollahs’ core ideology and policy.
  16. The cost of military preemption would be dwarfed by the cost of a confrontation with a ballistic and/or nuclear Iran. The Ayatollahs regime which sacrificed 500,000 of its own children in order to clear minefields, during the 1980-1988 war against Iraq, is capable of pursuing its megalomaniacal goal, irrespective of the cost.
  17. The elimination of the Ayatollahs’ clear and present threat to the national and homeland security of the US, the pro-US Arab regimes, the Middle East at-large, including Israel, NATO countries and the rest of the globe, constitutes a most crucial test for the leader of the Free World: the USA.

*Will the USA avoid the devastating pitfalls of the JCPOA (please see item #8)?”

*Will the USA approach the Ayatollahs realistically, insisting upon a thorough transformation of the Ayatollahs’ domestic, regional and global nature?
*Will the US and the Free World be willing to demonstrate their willingness to pay a price – if necessary – for sparing themselves the terrorism, conventional and nuclear wrath of the Ayatollahs?

*Will the USA sacrifice wishful-thinking, oversimplification and short-term gratification on the altar of realism, complexity and long-term homeland and national security?


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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb