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The Arab Demographic Revolution

The steep decline in the Arab fertility rate west of the Jordan River – in Judea, Samaria, Gaza and pre-1967 Israel – reflects the demographic revolution throughout the Muslim world, especially in the Arab countries of the Middle East.

According to the 2011 CIA Factbook, the fertility in Iran, the most religious Shiite country, is 1.87 births per woman, in Saudi Arabia, the most religious Sunni country – 2.5, in the small Gulf States – 2.5, in North Africa – 2, in Syria – 3, in Egypt – 2.94, in Jordan – 3.4, in Iraq – 3.76, in Yemen – 4.81 and in Sudan – 4.93 births per woman.

In 1969, the Israeli Arab fertility rate (which is similar to the Judea and Samaria Arab fertility rate) was 6 births higher than the Jewish fertility rate.  In 2012, the Arab-Jewish fertility gap plunged to 0.5 births. Moreover, the fertility rates of younger Arab and Jewish women have converged at 3 births per woman, while the average Israeli-born Jewish mothers already exceed 3 births per woman. Jewish fertility trends upward (particularly within the secular sector!), and Arab fertility trends downward, as a result of successful integration of Arabs – and especially Arab women – into the infrastructures of modernity.  

The Jewish fertility rate in Israel is higher than any Arab countries, other than Sudan, Yemen, Iraq and Jordan, which are trending downward. 

The triggers of the demographic revolution among Arabs west of the Jordan River are very similar to those which caused the overall Muslim/Arab demographic implosion: urbanization, expanded primary, secondary and tertiary education primarily among women, more assertive women at home and in the workforce, family planning, all-time high wedding and reproductive age, all-time low teen pregnancy, all-time high divorce rates and youthful emigration.  In 2012, an increasing number of Arab women remain unmarried during their 20s.   

Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, a leading demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in Foreign Policy Magazine, March 9, 2012: “Declines in the total fertility rate [in Muslim countries] have been jaw-dropping…. Throughout the global Muslim community, the average number of children per woman is falling dramatically. According to the UN Population Division, all Muslim-majority countries and territories witnessed fertility declines over the past three decades…. Algeria and Morocco have total fertility rates in the same ball park as Texas; Indonesia is almost identical to Arkansas; Tunisia looks like Illinois; Lebanon’s fertility level is lower than New York’s; Iran’s is comparable to that of New England, the region in America with the lowest fertility…. A century of research has detailed the associations between fertility decline and socioeconomic modernization, as represented by income levels, educational attainment, urbanization, public health, treatment of women, and the like…. Current fertility levels seem to be the product of intangible factors (culture, values, personal hopes and expectations) and not just material and economic forces…. Where Muslim women want fewer children, they are increasingly finding ways to manage it – with the pill or without it…. The fertility decline over the past generation has been more rapid in the Arab states than virtually anywhere else on earth…. A new world is being born before our eye – and we would all do well to pay much closer attention to its significance.”

 Demographic studies document that dramatic declines in fertility never bounce back to previous high levels.

While Arab demography is imploding, Israel’s Jewish demography benefits from a tailwind – a 56% surge in the number of annual Jewish births between 1995 and 2011, compared to a 10% rise in the number of Arab births. In 1995, the Jewish births constituted 69% of total births, compared with 76% in 2011. In 1995, there were 2.34 Jewish births per one Arab birth, compared with 3.2 Jewish births per one Arab birth in 2011.  Contrary to most of the world, Israel’s Jewish population is growing younger (while Israel’s Arab population is growing older) and educated, which bodes well for Israel’s economic growth.

Jewish demography is further bolstered by Aliya (Jewish immigration), an unprecedented flow of returning expatriates, a relatively low number of emigrants and a substantial annual net-emigration of (mostly young) Arabs from Judea and Samaria -17,000 in each of the last three years.

A pro-active Aliya policy would leverage the global economic and political circumstances in the former USSR, France, England, Argentina and the USA.  It could produce a wave of 500,000 Olim (Jewish immigrants) during the next ten years, catapulting the current 66% Jewish majority – in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel – to an 80% Jewish majority by 2035.

 

 




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Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb

2023 Inflated Palestinian Demography

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has audited the Palestinian data since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 150,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*A 390,000 Arab net-emigration from Judea & Samaria is excluded from the Palestinian census, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950.   For example, 15,466 in 2022, 26,357 – 2019, 15,173 – 2017 and 24,244 – 2014, as documented by Israel’s Population and Migration Authority (exits and entries) in all the land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 3.02 births in 2021, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been under-reported (since the days of the British Mandate) for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.4 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2023: a 69% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897: a 39% and 9% Jewish minority. In 2023, a 69% Jewish majority benefiting from fertility tailwind and net-immigration.  Arab fertility is Westernized, and Arab net-emigration from Judea and Samaria.  No Arab demographic time bomb. A Jewish demographic momentum.

    More data in this article and this short video.
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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb