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Talk with Iran’s Ayatollahs?

“Talk-with-Iran was tried by successive US presidents, starting with Jimmy Carter. In 1980, [Iran’s] Mullahs signed an accord with Carter not to seize anymore American hostages in exchange for de-freezing Iranian assets…. Yet, to this day, Iran has always held American hostages – 14 today…. The Saudis tried to improve ties with the Khomeini regime. They helped organize the Islamic Summit in Teheran…, coordinated oil policies and granted Iran an unprecedented Haj [pilgrimage] quota. The reward was the [Ayatollahs/Hezbollah] June 1996 truck-bomb attack on the Dhahran Khobar Towers [19 US air force men and one Saudi murdered and 490 multi-nationals injured] and the ransacking of the Saudi Embassy and Consulates in Iran…. Turkey had a similar experience.  It created a security commission with Iran and closed its borders to Iranians fleeing to exile… Iranian opposition figures were expelled…. The Mullahs repaid Turkey by granting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK terrorists) bases in the Qandyl Mountain region just inside Iran.  They also created a Turkish branch of Hezbollah…. (Amir Taheri, a leading expert on Iran and the Middle East, A Sharq al Awsat Saudi daily, February 22, 2019).

Since the 1978-1979 Iranian “Islamic Revolution,” most of European and USA foreign policy, media and academic establishments, and especially the architects of the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), have promoted accommodation with – not sanctions against – Iran’s Ayatollahs, irrespective of the Ayatollahs’ well-documented systematic track record:

*Exporting the “Islamic Revolution” throughout the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East and beyond, posing a clear, present and lethal threat to all pro-US Arab regimes;
*Perpetrating subversion and terrorism – directly and indirectly via proxies – in Saudi Arabia (e.g., Hasa and Qatif Shite-majority oil rich regions), Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, West and Central Africa, EuropeLatin America and beyond;
*Harnessing conventional and non-conventional (ballistic and nuclear) capabilities to advance the “Islamic Revolution,” with the 2015 JCPOA delaying (not abolishing) Iran’s nuclear capabilities by ten years; thus, providing a tailwind to Iran’s domination of the region without the need for a nuclear arsenal;
*Fighting the (Muslim) apostate and the (non-Muslim) infidel;
*Repressing the majority (e.g., 51% of global executions), while oppressing Iran’s ethnic minorities, which account for half of the population (Ahwazis, Kurds, Turks, Balochis, Turkmen, Qashqais, Caspeans and the Lor tribes);
*Conducting K-12 hate-education and hate-sermons in mosques, which reflect the Ayatollahs’ most authentic worldview;
*Leveraging Iran’s military involvement in Yemen’s civil war, in order to assume control of the Two oil-supply critical Straits of Bab al-Mandab (from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea) and the Straits of Hormuz (Persian Gulf – Gulf of Oman – Indian Ocean; 20% of global oil exports).

Thus, Qasem Soleimani, the Commander of the Ayatollahs’ Quds Force, which oversees extraterritorial military and anti-Sunni subversive operations, threatening the US to close the Straits of Hormuz if Washington enforces new sanctions against Iran. “The Red Sea is no longer safe for US vessels…. We are the nation of martyrdom….”

How are Western democracies confronting Iran’s Ayatollahs?

The late British Prof. Eli Kedourie, who was a game-changing Middle East scientist, exposed fundamental fumbles in Western Middle East policy, in general, and Western policy toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, in particular:

“The Carter Administration was willing to see [the Shah] go…. [US] Ambassador Sullivan argued that Khomeini and the armed forces were anti-Communist….; that Khomeini would play a ‘Gandhi-like’ role; and that elections would be likely to produce a pro-Western Islamic republic. In Washington, there was a chorus of academic and official voices singing the praises of Khomeini…. Princeton University’s Richard Falk…[claimed that] Khomeini’s entourage were committed to a struggle against all forms of oppression…and strong belief in minority rights…. Khomeini’s Islamic Republic could be expected to have a doctrine of social justice at its core…flexible at interpreting the Koran…. The Islamic republic will be a stabilizing element geopolitically…. The State Department believed that Khomeini intended to set up a government drawn from moderate secular politicians, with Ayatollah Khomeini remaining in the background as a guiding political and spiritual force…. Assistant Secretary of State Harold Saunders declared that he did not sense a strong anti-American feeling among the [new] leaders of Iran…. [National Security Advisor] Brzezinski told [the new regime] that the US government is prepared to expand security, economic, political and intelligence relationships…. A profound and systematic misunderstanding of Khomeini and what he stood for….”

Does the US recognize the well-documented 1979-2019 ruthless Ayatollahs-reality, which has exposed the futility and the self-destructive practice of “talk-with-Iran”?!  Or, is the US still trapped in a delusion, which has added fuel to the “Islamic Revolution,” posing a critical threat to global, regional and US national security, homeland security and economy?!



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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

Support Appreciated






The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb