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Syria-related Misconceptions, Inconsistencies and Ambiguity

Irrespective of Israel, Free World inaction in the face of non-conventional military systems in the hands of rogue regimes – such as Assad, or worse yet the Muslim Brotherhood or Al Qaeda – aggravates the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East and beyond; transforms tactical threats to strategic threats; adrenalizes Iran’s megalomaniac aspirations and pursuit of nuclear capabilities; poses a lethal threat to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing, pro-US Arab countries; makes chemical and biological weaponry easily accessible to the growing number of anti-US Islamic terrorists and emboldens the scores of terrorist sleeper cells on the US mainland. Therefore, non-conventional military systems in Syria, constitutes a clear and present danger to vital US economic and national security interests.

However, when you sow the wind, expect the whirlwind.  A policy of misconceptions, inconsistency and ambiguity has provided a tailwind to the Arab Tsunami, while intensifying public ambivalence about the increasingly anti-US, fragmented, shifty, unpredictable, treacherous, violently intolerant and chaotic Arab Street.

For instance, upon entering the White House in 2009, President Obama initiated a policy of multi-nationalism (shaped by Samantha Power, a personal friend and one of Obama’s mentors on foreign policy), considering the UN to be the quarterback of international relations, while disavowing American exceptionalism and leadership, apologizing for past US unilateral actions and preferring to lead from behind.  As expected, but contrary to Obama’s policy expectations, the US was deserted by the international community – especially by NATO – when faced with the Syrian challenge. 

In response, Obama reasserted America’s power projection, announcing a forthcoming unilateral US military operation against Syria, which (unlike a declaration of war) does not require Congressional authorization.  Nevertheless, Obama swiftly mellowed the threat to Syria, passing the buck to Congress and putting any military operation on hold.  Furthermore, he has subordinated America’s independence of national security action to a multinational initiative by Russia, the core supporter of Assad, the lead obstacle to effective sanctions on Iran, the key supplier of advanced missiles to Iran and Syria and the chief adversary of the US in the UN Security Council, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Thus, the US is collaborating with a Russian ploy to advance the delusional option of international inspection – and not obliterationof non-conventional weaponry, which has failed in North Korea and Iran, undermining critical US interests.

On September 6, 2013, Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the UN, stated: “we thought perhaps a shared evidentiary base could convince Russia or Iran – itself a victim of Saddam Hussein’s monstrous chemical weapons attacks in 1987-1988 – to cast loose a regime that was gassing its people.”  Power’s assumption was resoundingly refuted by Ali Akbar Velayati, a national security adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: “An Attack on Syria is considered an attack on Iran and Iran’s allies.” It was equally demolished by Russia bolstering military reinforcement to both Syria and Iran.

Secretaries of State, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton were members of a tiny group of US legislators that believed – until the recent atrocities in Syria – that Bashar Assad was a generous, constructive leader, a reformer and a man of his word. Kerry was a frequent flyer to Damascus, dining with Assad and his wife, considering Hafez and Bashar Assad partners for peace. 

On September 3, 2013, Kerry assured Senator Johnson (R-WI) that “the Syrian opposition has increasingly become more defined by its moderation.” And in the House hearings, he told Congressman McCaul (R-TX) that “there is real moderate opposition that exists” and that it is “getting stronger.”  Just like earlier references to the imploding Arab Street as “the Facebook revolution” and “transition to democracy,” so has Kerry subordinated the grim reality of the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda-dominated Syrian opposition to an oversimplified vision of the Middle East.  Thus, while Assad’s goals are confined to the boundaries of Syria, the mission of the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda transcends Syria, sweeping Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the “Abode of Islam,” as a prelude to the grand assault on the “Abode of the Infidel.”  Both the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda are anti-US, Islamic supremacists, Shariah-driven, anti-democracy, violently intolerant of fellow-Muslims and the “infidel” and pursue their imperialistic vision via conventional and terroristic means.  

In Syria – just like all other Arab countries – the weaker the traditional autocratic-military regime, the stronger the transnational Islamic terrorism becomes. However, John Brennan, the CIA Director and Obama’s mentor on international terrorism, does not recognize the existence of Islamic or Jihadist terrorism. On August 6, 2009, John Brennan presented his worldview, stating: “The President does not describe this [challenge of Islamic terrorism] as a ‘war on terrorism….’ Nor does President Obama see this challenge as a fight against Jihadists….  Jihad meaning to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal ….”

The attainment of worthy US national security goals – such as a surgical obliteration of the Syrian infrastructure of chemical weapons – does not require boots on the ground.  It requires realism, clarity, determination and consistency.



 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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