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September 11, 2001 – A Decade of Lessons

September 11, 2001 constituted a horrific awakening from the post-Cold War delusions of “Peace Dividends” and a “New World Order” to the reality of a “New World Disorder” and a worldwide surge of Islamic terrorism.

The 9/11 reality has exposed Islamic terrorism as a clear, present and lethal danger to the Free World, irrespective of the Arab-Israeli conflict, Israel’s existence, US pressure on Israel, US generous foreign aid to Moslem countries and US military support of Moslem national aspirations in Afghanistan (against a Moscow-backed regime), in Bosnia and in Kosovo (against Serbia). Autocratic Islamic regimes consider Western-style religious, political, educational and economic liberties fatal threats. Islamic terrorists consider Western democracies infidel societies and geo-political obstacles to be subjugated via terrorism and “Holy Wars” (Jihad), as has been the practice of Islam – confronting “infidels” and “apostates’ – since the seventh century.

The trauma of 9/11 has raised awareness to Islamic terrorism as a threat to the US mainland. The threat is intensified by the proliferation of Hezbollah and Hamas presence in Central and South America, as well as US sleeper cells. The US National Drug Intelligence Center reports that Hamas and Hezbollah collaborate with Mexican drug cartels, furnishing them weapons and distributing drugs in Europe and the Middle East. Muslim terrorists – many of whom are supported financially by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE – operate along the tri- border area of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.

9/11 demonstrated that indecisiveness emboldens terrorists. Thus, the April 1993 attempt on the life of President Bush evoked a timid response: the launch of a cruise missile to Baghdad. The murder of 24 US soldiers, in Saudi Arabia – in November 1995 and in June1996 – did not trigger any military response. 257 people were murdered in August 1998 by Islamic terrorists, who blew up the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The US retaliated by launching cruise missiles on insignificant targets in Sudan and Afghanistan. 17 American sailors aboard the USS Cole were murdered in Aden in October 2001. The US responded by killing one of the terrorists. The meek US response to the systematic escalation of Islamic terrorism reaffirmed an Islamic perception of a US in retreat, dramatically energizing terrorists all the way to 9/11.

9/11 highlighted the vulnerability of the US to terrorism. It shifted the US from retaliation – to preemption – mode. For instance, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have been supplemented by the pursuit of Islamic terrorists in their safe havens in Pakistan, Yemen, the Philippines and Algeria. At the same time, the anti-US and the pro-Islamic track record of the UN, and the rogue nature of many of its members, preclude an effective global war on terrorism. Therefore, counter-terrorism has been confined to an upgraded cooperation between the US and a few of its Free World allies, such as Israel, Britain, Canada, Australia and France.

In order to avert another 9/11, The Obama Administration has introduced it own approach to counterterrorism. According to President Obama, Islam promotes peace and not terrorism, and there is no global Islamic terrorism. He legitimized the Muslim Brotherhood – the mentor of Hamas – during his May 2009 speech in Cairo. The Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, stated that “the Muslim Brotherhood is largely secular, eschewing violence.” Obama’s Advisor on Counterterrorism, John Brennan, insisted that “there is no Jihadist terrorism, because Jihad is a process which purifies the soul.” Attorney General Eric Holder, and his deputy James Cole, contended that the US ought to pursue a criminal justice approach to – rather than launch war on –terrorism. And, Homeland Security Secretary, Janet Napolitano, avoids the word “terror,” preferring the term “man-caused disaster” thus intensifying the case of moral ambiguity

However, moral ambiguity and oversimplification yield operational ambiguity, while moral clarity is essential to achieving operational clarity – a prerequisite to avoiding a repeat of 9/11.




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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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