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Reproduction (“Proo Urvoo”) Is Good For Israel’s Economy

The argument that reducing Israel’s Jewish fertility rate (2.7.children per woman) would upgrade Israel’s economy, constitutes an economic edition of “General Dan Halutz Syndrome” that collapsed during the recent Lebanon War. Halutz believed in a small and sophisticated military which relied on the Air Force and smart bombs – while minimizing the role of the manpower-intense ground forces. Halutz’ concept failed in a resounding manner in Lebanon. This argument is symptomatic of a short-term economic perception that jeopardizes long-term growth.

The deficiencies of such an argument are understood by West and North European countries, which achieved a high rate of GNP per capita due to their low fertility rate (1.7 children per woman.) Yet, they concluded that such a policy would quickly transform them into an elderly society, that would not be able to provide young manpower to sustain the economy, and would be increasingly dependent on foreign labor, which threatens their culture. They realize that continued economic growth requires renewal of local manpower, which is a natural by-product of increased fertility rate.  In fact, they provide generous incentives for a higher fertility rate. They attempt to escape the trap of low fertility, which could transform them into a luxury “Rolls Royce” that is reaching the end of the road; it is running out of gasoline and no service-station in sight.

Manpower is the gasoline of a modern society, endowed with a tradition of values and a technological-scientific-educational infrastructure. Foreign investors, who are aware of this, consider Israel a hotspot for long-term investments, second only to the US. They are aware that Israel’s Jewish birthrate is the highest in the industrialized world, and that since 1995 there has been a 35% growth in the number of annual Jewish births (from 80,400 to 109,000). Jewish demographic momentum is a prerequisite to a sustained economic growth and a gradual transition from a “Mitsubishi”-like economy to a well-fueled “Rolls Royce” economy.

Manpower is the most vital growth resource – quantitatively and qualitatively – at the disposal of an astute government, which is capable to realize its potential. Stable and long-term growth calls for the expansion of the domestic consumption-base (not only export that is dependent on external factors).  It also calls for a massive expansion of the number of small businesses and the bolstering of traditional industries (not just high-tech).  Upgrading Israel from being a “Mini Silicon Valley” to a “Maxi Silicon Valley” – which is 10 times larger than the scope of Israel’s current high-tech industries – also requires a substantial expansion of the manpower-base. And, what about the manpower required for the military in the conflict-ridden Mideast, which is replete with terrorism and systematic violation of commitments?! And,  what about the manpower needed for education, human services and homeland security?! What would have been Israel’s demographic, security, technological, economic, and medical fate without one million Olim (immigrants) form the Former Soviet Union?!

The particularly high fertility among the ultra-orthodox (Hareidi) Jewish community constitutes an important growth resource, which is gradually integrated into the commercial and defense high-tech industries, as well as into the economy in general, as is the case in the US, albeit more impressively.  The ultra-orthodox’ potential contribution to Israel’s economy can be construed via the performance of the giant US-based IDT, that employs thousands of ultra-orthodox personnel, as well as the outsourcing services in the ultra-orthodox Israeli communities of Kiryat-Sefer and Beitar Elit, which outperform Indian outsourcing. And, this is just the early-stage of the ultra-orthodox prospect… A large percentage of Israel’s high-tech personnel and Jewish Nobel prize laureates are the descendents of ultra-orthodox families. They constitute a living testimony to the economic potential embodied in this sector’s moral and educational heritage – if only Israel’s leadership would have the wisdom to harness this sector to its overall effort.

The Aliyah (immigration) from the former USSR jump-started Israel’s high-tech industry; the next major high tech surge will emerge from the ultra-orthodox sector. The Jewish commandment of reproduction (“Proo Urvoo”) is based on economic, and not just moral, ground.




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2023 Inflated Palestinian Demography

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has audited the Palestinian data since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 150,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*A 390,000 Arab net-emigration from Judea & Samaria is excluded from the Palestinian census, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950.   For example, 15,466 in 2022, 26,357 – 2019, 15,173 – 2017 and 24,244 – 2014, as documented by Israel’s Population and Migration Authority (exits and entries) in all the land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 3.02 births in 2021, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been under-reported (since the days of the British Mandate) for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.4 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2023: a 69% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897: a 39% and 9% Jewish minority. In 2023, a 69% Jewish majority benefiting from fertility tailwind and net-immigration.  Arab fertility is Westernized, and Arab net-emigration from Judea and Samaria.  No Arab demographic time bomb. A Jewish demographic momentum.

    More data in this article and this short video.
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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb