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Projection made by Shimon Dubnov, a leading Jewish demographer-historian

At a time when demographers-of-doom attempt to frighten Israel into retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea & Samaria into the 9-15 mile wide sliver along the Mediterranean, it would be instructive to examine the demographic pressure on the Founding Father of Zionism, Theodore Herzl.

 

Demographers of doom did not deter Theodore Herzl

Shimon Dubnov, a leading Jewish demographer/historian
(researched by Yakov Faitelson, expert on Jewish-Arab demography)

Public Letters on Ancient and Modern Judaism (1897-1907)

Sixth Letter (March 1898), http://bit.ly/VuCPJE

“Let’s examine the impact of new and detached dreams on the establishment of a political base for the Jewish People… (p. 161)

“What a gap between the construction of a few modest settlements in Palestine and the realization of the vision of an autonomous Jewish center there… Fifteen additional settlements were erected during 1882-1898, and the Jewish population of Palestine grew by 15,000.  However, a great gap exists between the settlement of a few tens of thousands of Jews in Palestine on one hand, and the political resurrection of the ten million exiled Jewish People on the other hand… How far is reality from the dream?!  (p. 162).

“If the Basel Congress were non-political, then it would reach a resolution that Judaism is a nationality, which should not be advanced by messianic means in Zion, but by a credible struggle for realistic Jewish interests in the Diaspora… (p. 165).

Zionists hope to retrieve the lost [enlightened] son via a Jewish State in Palestine.  However, such an idea preconditions an attainable goal upon an unattainable tactic.  The establishment of a Zukunftstaat constitutes a nice dream – a messianic utopia… (p. 167).

“The reconstruction of the Jewish State – with a sizeable Jewish population- in Palestine, is impossible, politically, socially and economically… (p. 169).

“17 years of intense effort, increased migration and huge resources, has yielded 3,600 Jewish settlers – 211 annually.  Let us assume that the Zionist committees shall expedite their effort, and will therefore manage to settle 1,000 settlers per year.  Thenin one hundred years [by 2000] the total in Palestine will reach100,000.  Let us multiply it by five – which would account for natural increase – then we shall get 500,000 Jews in Palestine in 100 years: slightly higher than the population of Kiev… (p. 171).

“Obviously, all of us wish to see half a million of our brethren in our ancient homeland at the outset of the 21st century.  But, will that solve the problem of ten million Jews, who are scattered in the Diaspora…? How would you view such an original solution, which condemns a whole People to death on the altar of saving five percent of that People…? Therefore, political Zionism is utopian by three: the dream to establish a Jewish State supported by international law, the dream to achieve the migration of a substantial element of the Jewish People to that State, and the dream to solve the problem of the entire Jewish People through the establishment of a Jewish State… (p. 171).

Political liberation in Palestine constitutes a beautiful messianic dream…” (p. 180)…”

The 2018 demographic reality (7 million Jews in Israel – a 65.5% majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel)) refutes Dubnov’s demography-of-doom (500,000 Jews).




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2023 Jewish demographic momentum in Israel

In 2022, the number of Israel’s Jewish births was 137,566 – 71%
higher than 1995 (80,400), compared to 43,417 Arab births – 19% higher
than 1995 (36,500). 

In 2022, Jewish births were 76% of total births, compared to
69% in 1995. The surge of Jewish births has taken place due to
the unprecedented rise of births (since 1995) in the secular
sector, notwithstanding a rising level of education, income and
wedding age and expanded urbanization. Since 1995, Israel’s
ultra-orthodox sector has experienced a mild decrease of fertility.

 

In 1969: Israel’s Arab fertility rate (number of births per woman) was six births higher than the Jewish fertility rate. In 2021: Jewish fertility rate – 3.13; Israeli Arabs – 2.85; Judea and Samaria (West Bank) Arabs – 3.02. 

Muslim fertility rate has been Westernized: Jordan – 2.9 births per woman, Iran – 1.9, Saudi Arabia – 1.9, Morocco – 2.27, Iraq – 3.17, Egypt – 2.76, Yemen – 2.91, United Arab Emirates – 1.62, etc.

Israel’s growing Jewish fertility rate reflects optimism, patriotism, attachment to roots, communal solidarity, frontier-mentality and less abortions. Arab demographic Westernization is attributed to sweeping urbanization, enhanced stature of women (education, employment, rising wedding age, shorter reproductive period) and contraceptives.

More information in my recent article and video.  

Support Appreciated

 




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb