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President Obama’s visit to Israel – continuity or change?

President Obama’s March 2013 visit to the Middle East, including Israel, could signal a significant policy-change from his June 2009 visit, which excluded Israel.  On the other hand, the introduction of the John Kerry (State Department) – Chuck Hagel (Pentagon) – John Brennan (CIA) team of “Palestine Firsters” may suggest that the March visit could merely be a tactical-change in pursuit of the same policy.

The 2009 visit was driven by an assumption that a newly-elected charismatic US President could turnaround the US economy and reform US healthcare, while simultaneously implementing UN-like multilateralism, lowering the US unilateral profile, transforming the world from confrontation to engagement, mollifying the Muslim World, coax Iran into abandoning its megalomaniac aspirations and resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.  The 2009 visit reflected a worldview focusing on the Palestinian issue as the, supposed, core cause of Middle East turbulence, the crown jewel of Islamic policy-making, an essential link in forging an anti-Iran Arab coalition and the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict.  Israel was perceived as a secondary ally, at best, and a burden, at worst.

However, the Middle East has defied Obama’s assumptions and world view.  None of Obama’s Middle East goals were achieved, highlighting the increasingly violent and unpredictable anti-US Islamic Street, totally independent of the Palestinian issue. The tumultuous Islamic Winter – from the Atlantic Ocean to the Persian Gulf – has further accentuated Israel as the only stable, predictable, commercially and militarily capable, innovative, democratic and unconditional ally of the US. 

The March, 2013 visit to Israel will take place as the threats to critical US interests – which are endangering the entire Free World – are intensifying daily.  The Iranian nuclear sand clock is running out, causing panic among US Arab allies, exposing the futility of diplomacy and sanctions. The lava on the Islamic Street threatens to sweep Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and additional members of the dwindling club of pro-US Arab regimes, ridiculing the “Arab Springers.”  Iraq is disintegrating, becoming an Iranian subsidiary and an arena for global terrorism, rather than an island of free election, mocking the delusion of Arab democracy.  Egypt has been transformed from a pro-US outpost into a chief catalyst of the anti-Western trans-national Muslim Brotherhood revolution. In contrast with the “Palestine Firsters,” Arab leaders are pre-occupied with their tectonic home-front and the lethal Iranian threat, not with the Palestinian issue, which has never been their top concern, irrespective of their rhetoric. 

The March, 2013 visit to Israel will take place at a time when the stormy Arab Winter clarifies that the win-win US-Israel strategic cooperation does not evolve around the Palestinian issue, but around mutual regional and global threats. Thus, while the threats to US targets on the mainland and abroad are mounting and US power-projection is declining, Israel emerges as the only effective battle-tested ally which can pull the hottest chestnuts out of the fire, for the US, without American boots on the ground. 

In the face of dramatic threats in 2013, President Obama could facilitate a dramatic enhancement of the mutually-beneficial bilateral strategic cooperation.  For example, the upgrading of Israel’s port of Ashdod into a home port for the Sixth Fleet; the relocation of advance aircraft, missiles, tanks and counter-terrorism systems, from Europe to Israel, for US use in case of emergencies in Jordan and the Gulf area.   US focus on mutual threats, rather than on the Palestinian issue, would reassure Riyadh and deter Teheran.

The March, 2013 visit follows the January 22, 2013 Israeli election, which was dominated by “It’s the economy, stupid!”   The Israeli constituent is skeptical about the “peace process” and the land-for-peace formula, does not trust Mahmoud Abbas and is weary of further “painful concessions.”  The only national security challenge which concerns most Israelis is the Iranian nuclear threat.  

In 1981, President Reagan pressured Prime Minister Begin brutally against bombing Iraq’s nuclear reactor, lest it trigger a regional war.  Israel defied the US, which thanked Israel following the 1991Gulf War “for sparing the US a nuclear confrontation.”  Will President Obama attempt to handcuff Israel, or will he leverage Israel’s experienced hands to spare the US and the Free World devastating consequences?!

President Obama may decide to ignore Middle East reality, subordinate US-Israel relations to the Palestinian issue, and pressure/entice Israel into further concessions. He should note the negative results of US pressure on Israel.  For example, Israel’s unprecedented November, 2009 ten-month construction freeze in eastern Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria radicalized Mahmoud Abbas’ position. Israel’s unprecedented concessions at Camp David, in July, 2000, triggered the Second Intifada’s unprecedented wave of terrorism. The US pressure to allow Hamas’ participation in the January, 2006 election resulted in two wars in Gaza.  According to Max Fisher’s 1992 biography, Quiet Diplomat, President Eisenhower admitted that “I should have never pressured Israel to evacuate the Sinai,” which fueled President Nasser’s anti-American radicalism.

The March, 2013 visit to Israel will indicate whether President Obama is determined to learn from history by avoiding, or by repeating, critical errors.

 

 

 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

Support Appreciated

 

 

 

 

 




Videos

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