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Post mid-term election US national security policy

While national security and foreign policy did not play a role in the November 2018 mid-term Congressional election, the outcome of the election will impact President Trump’s maneuverability in the arenas of foreign policy, national and homeland security.

While the power of the newly-elected, Democratic-controlled House will be substantially neutralized by the Republican-controlled Senate, the House may choose to focus on its power to investigate the President, ignoring a November 6, 2018 recommendation by a former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Ed Rendell: “legislate, legislate, legislate; don’t investigate, investigate, investigate….”

The former Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania and Mayor of Philadelphia is aware that constituents expect their Representatives and Senators to focus on district and state local priorities – which require cooperation between the two Congressional Chambers and between the Legislature and the Executive – or else constituents “shall remember in November” (2020), which is around the corner. Rendell’s advice was vindicated by the November 1996 and November 2012 models, which paved the road to Presidents Clinton’s and Obama’s second terms, dealing major blows to Republican legislators, whose top priority (during the two years preceding the elections) was to paralyze the relatively-constrained Democratic Administrations, rather than legislate and respond to the local needs of their own constituents.

Should the Democratic-controlled House ignore these precedents and Governor Rendell’s advice – allowing investigation to supersede legislation – it would tax President Trump’s time dedicated to critical challenges in the areas of international, national and homeland security: Iran’s Shite megalomaniacal Ayatollahs; ISIS and other Sunni terrorist regimes; the proliferation of Islamic terrorism in the Argentina-Paraguay-Brazil tri-border area; ensuring the survival of all pro-US Arab regimes, which are threatened by the Ayatollahs’ subversion and terrorism; pacifying North Korea; reducing tension and enhancing cooperation with China and Russia; restructuring NATO’s financial base; upgrading commercial and security coordination with Mexico; expanding geo-strategic ties with Latin America; bolstering strategic cooperation with India, the emerging super-power, etc.

Still, national security and foreign policy may preoccupy much of Trump’s agenda as a by-product of increasing clear and present lethal threats to US national and homeland security, as well as a result of a potential Congressional gridlock in the domestic legislative arena.

Following in the footsteps of President Reagan (1980) and President Clinton (1992), President Trump is expected to reiterate the message of “Make America Great Again;” aiming to resurrect and bolster the US posture of deterrence, which is a critical prerequisite to minimize global unpredictability, instability and violence, while clipping the wings of rogue regimes.
The bolstering of the US posture of deterrence – in the face of Iran’s Ayatollahs and other rogue regimes – is a precondition to the restoration of faith in the US’ willingness to flex its muscle, in general, and on behalf of the pro-US Arab countries, in particular. The latter expressed their disenchantment with President Obama’s feeble policy toward the Ayatollahs, by venturing closer to Russia and China.

The positive transformation of the US strategic image is reflected by the November 12, 2018 statement made by the United Arab Emirates’ Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Anwar Gargash, who praised Trump’s defiance of the Ayatollahs and their Hezbollah and Houthi proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, “who have perpetrated terrorism in the Middle East and Europe.”

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states are encouraged by Trump’s realization that the conventional capabilities – and the supreme ideology – of Iran’s Ayatollahs constitute a machete at the throat of every pro-US Arab regime in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. The Trump Administration is aware that the Ayatollahs do not aim at peaceful-coexistence with fellow Muslim countries, let alone with the “infidel” Christian, Hindu or Jewish countries. The Ayatollahs are not driven by economic gains, but by a megalomaniacal vision, which aims at dominating the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East and beyond.

The Ayatollahs’ and many other rising threats are expected to increase the US defense budget, while Trump insists on fair-burden-sharing by NATO countries, demanding that NATO members will appropriate, at least, 2% of their GDP to defense. The European members of NATO are urged to follow in the footsteps of the US (3.6% of its GDP – almost three times as much as the average NATO member), rather than relying on the US taxpayers money, while (frequently) undermining US foreign and national security initiatives.

Contrary to Europe, Israel dedicates 5.2% of its GDP to defense, while extending the US’ strategic and intelligence hand, functioning as the most productive battle-tested laboratory for hundreds of US military systems, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market, thus contributing to US research and development, export and employment.

 

President Trump is not expected to pursue an isolationist policy. Instead, he will persist in a unilateral – rather than multilateral – diplomatic, economic and military policy, where US national security interests supersede counter-productive and hostile interests set by international and multilateral organizations (e.g., the UN, UNRWA, UNESCO, the International Court of Justice). Most of these organizations are involved, directly and indirectly, in initiatives, which have severely undermined global stability and US national security interests.

Tackling reality head-on, President Trump should be aware of the failure of all well-intentioned Arab-Israeli US peace initiatives, which forced the Arabs to outflank the US from the maximalist/radical side, creating additional hurdles on the very long, greasy, uphill road to peace. Moreover, they were based on the false, counter-productive principle of moral-equivalence between hate-educators and aggressors, on the one hand, and the intended victim, on the other hand. Track record documents that the US played a critical role in sealing – not initiating – the only two successful peace initiatives: Israel-Egypt and Israel-Jordan.

Finally, the threats to the US, posed by Shiite and Sunni Islamic terrorism, in addition to the unprecedented strategic cooperation between Israel and the pro-US Arab countries, shed light on the Middle East reality and the reality of the Palestinian issue, which has never been a crown-jewel of Arab policy-making, neither a cause of Middle East turbulence, nor the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict… unless one assumes that the Arab talk supersedes the Arab walk.   Would a Palestinian state enhance US interests? It would certainly doom Jordan’s Hashemite regime, providing tailwind to the Russian, Chinese and Ayatollahs’ stature in the Middle East.

Will the outcome of the November 2018 Congressional election produce more cooperation, or confrontation, between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-controlled Senate? Will it yield more legislation or arm-wrestling with the White House? Will the 2019 divided Capitol Hill divert much of President Trump’s attention away from the pressing critical national and homeland security challenges, or will a Congressional gridlock push Trump further toward his foreign policy and national security agenda?




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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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