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Obama’s Unprecedented Test

The current indicators of the presidential race bode well for Barak Obama, provided that he deduces the proper lessons from previous campaigns.

 

In 2004, the Iraq War and the loss of industrial jobs to the Far East eroded President Bush’s popularity, and paved the road for a potential Democratic victory.  However, Senator Kerry was unable to rid himself of the liberal, dovish haughty label. Bush (43rd) won a second term.

 

In 1988, IranGate plagued President Reagan’s approval rating and the public became increasingly disenchanted with a two term Republican in the White House.  Governor Dukakis led Bush by 18%, but he managed to re-entrench his liberal-dovish-cold image, whose patriotism was supposedly in doubt.  Bush (41st) won.

 

In 1972, Democratic candidate, Senator McGovern, rode the wave of a nation-wide protest against the Vietnam War, which deteriorated the level of national optimism to its lowest ebb.  However, McGovern played into the hands of those who cautioned that the presidency cannot be entrusted to an extreme leftist, liberal-dove.  Nixon won.

 

In 1960, JFK was elected the first – and so far the only – Catholic President.  He avoided the mistakes of Catholic Governor of New York, Al Smith, who ran in 1928 as a Catholic candidate and could not attract sufficient Protestant votes.

 

Will Obama follow in the footsteps of Kerry, Dukakis and McGovern, or will he adhere to JFK’s tactic and become the first Black president in the history of the USA?

 

Is Obama capable of leveraging the rare combination of political-economic-security circumstances, which constitute a unique opportunity for a sweeping Democratic victory?  The US electorate reflects no-confidence in the values and performance of the current Republican leadership, and therefore aims for a change in the White House and an increasing Democratic majority on Capitol Hill. The recent Democratic gain of three House seats (Illinois, Mississippi and Louisiana), previously held by Republicans – and the accelerated retirement by Republican legislators – could be a symptom of a pending Tsunami in the House and Senate. 

 

Moreover, US constituents prefer to limit each party to two presidential terms, as evidenced by the post Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon and Clinton campaigns. In addition, the current economic crisis is hurting every sector in the US; the crisis of the credit card companies and the rise in unemployment loom around the corner; all time high gasoline prices are constraining the long-cherished American freedom of movement, and the rising cost of food and health services has particularly hurt the middle class, which is critical to winning the November election. Finally, irrespective of the enhanced military performance in Iraq, most Americans oppose the war and hold Republicans responsible.

 

Will Obama be able – through his impressive intelligence and communications skills – to overcome the steep hurdles in the race against McCain, a 72 year old Young Turk, known for his defiance of Republican leadership?  In a San Francisco campaign statement, he alienated micropolitan America (towns with populations of less than 50,000 residents).  But, in 2004, Kerry won metropolitan America, while Bush won micropolitan America, which ushered him into the Oval Office. During the Democratic primaries, Obama lost all “Blue Collar” States, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota – which are crucial to his victory in November – and did not participate in the “Blue Collar” Michigan primary. Some of the “blue collar” constituents belong to the “white angry vote”, which cannot digest a black, liberal, dovish president.  The young and inexperienced Obama will, also, have to overcome the inherent rivalry between Blacks and Hispanics.  The latter hold the key to a victory in California, Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.  They accord McCain preferential treatment, due to his position on illegal aliens, and they respect tradition, patriotism and military service. Obama’s record of Senate voting and speeches – and the identity of his advisors – suggest a liberal-dovish world view, including opposition to tougher sanctions against Iran and willingness to negotiate with terrorist regimes.  Moreover, it requires a sophisticated effort to prove that his 20 year intimate association with the racist, anti-US and anti-Semite Pastor Wright has not impacted his world view.

 

The last lap of the campaign marathon will start after Labor Day, and then we’ll find out whether Barak Obama has realized, or has wasted, an unprecedented opportunity in US political history.

 




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Secretary Pompeo 2019 vs. President Obama 2009

The January 10, 2019 Cairo, Egypt speech by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – which was cleared by the White House – was a course-setting presentation of the US role in the Middle East.

Pompeo’s ideological and operational speech was aimed at bolstering the US’ posture of deterrence and reassuring pro-US Arab regimes. It was diametrically opposed to President Obama’s vision of the Middle East, which was presented in Cairo, Egypt on June 4, 2009.

In 2009, in Cairo, President Obama introduced his own vision of rejuvenated US relations with Islam and Muslims, highlighting the following guidelines:

“Islam has always been a part of America’s story…. Since our founding, American Muslims have enriched the United States. They have fought in our wars, served in government, stood for civil rights….

“Islam is not part of the problem in combating violent extremism – it is an important part of promoting peace….

“America and Islam are not exclusive… they overlap and share common principles – principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings…. The interests we share as human beings are far more powerful than the forces that drive us apart…. Throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality….

“More recently, tension has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a cold war in which Muslim-majority countries were too often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations.  Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity and globalization led many Muslims to view the West as hostile to the traditions of Islam….

“Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance….”

In 2019, in Cairo, Secretary of State, Pompeo, introduced his own assessments of Middle East reality and bluntly recommended policy guidelines:

“When America retreats, chaos often follows. When we neglect our friends, resentment builds. When we partner with enemies, they advance….

“America has confronted the ugly reality of radical Islamism…. America will not retreat until the terror fight is over…. We remain committed to the complete dismantling of ISIS…. defeating Islamist extremism wherever we find it…. We grossly underestimated the tenacity and viciousness of radical Islamism, a debauched strain of the faith that seeks to upend every other form of worship or governance.…

“We must confront the Ayatollahs, not coddle them…. We withdrew from the failed [2015] nuclear deal…. re-imposing sanctions that should have never been lifted…. The nations of the Middle East will never enjoy security…if Iran’s revolutionary regime persists on its current course…. America’s economic sanctions against [Iran]… will keep getting tougher until Iran starts behaving like a normal country…. Iran may think it owns Lebanon; Iran is wrong….

“[The Middle East] witnessed convulsions [not an ‘Arab Spring’] from Tunis to Tehran as old systems crumbled and new ones struggled to emerge…. In falsely seeing ourselves as a force for what ails the Middle East, we were timid in asserting ourselves when the times – and our partners – demanded it….

“Our reluctance to wield our influence kept us silent as the people of Iran rose up [in 2009] against the mullahs in Tehran in the Green Revolution…. Emboldened, the regime spread its cancerous influence to Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon….

“American’s penchant for wishful thinking led us to look the other way as Hezbollah, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian regime, accumulated a massive arsenal of approximately 130,000 rockets and missiles… aimed squarely at our ally, Israel…. The US fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against the Iranian regimes’ aggressive adventurism.  We will continue to ensure that Israel has the military capacity to do so decisively…. We strongly support Israel’s efforts to stop Tehran from turning Syria into the next Lebanon…. President Trump campaigned on the promise to recognize Jerusalem – the seat of Israel’s government – as the national capital.  In May, we moved our embassy there….”

Reviewing both Cairo speeches, one may pose the following questions:

*Is the US war on the 14 century-old relentless Islamic terrorism advanced/undermined by the assumption that Middle East and Western regimes and peoples share similar goals and values?

*Is the long term US counter-terrorism effort well-served by soothing – or militarily combatting – terrorists?

*Is the US better off combatting Islamic terrorists in Middle East trenches or trenches in the US?

*While the US military deterrence in the Middle East would be enhanced by a coalition of pro-US Arab regimes, could it be replaced by such a coalition of regimes, which are inherently tenuous as are their policies and alliances?

*Is the US better off reacting to – or preempting – Islamic terrorism?

*Is the long-term US national security, in general, and counter-terrorism, in particular, well-served by Israel’s operational, intelligence and technological experience and capabilities, in addition to Israel’s reliability as an ally of the US?




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