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Obama Promises – Carved in Stone or Written on Ice?

President Obama stridently disavows President Bush’s understandings – with Israel – concerning sustained natural growth construction in Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, as well as – supposedly – future Israeli sovereignty over “Settlement Blocs” in Judea and Samaria.  What does such a disavowal bode for the credibility and durability of President Obama’s promises to – and understandings with – Israel?!

The discussion, in Jerusalem, of Obama’s proposed commitments in return for the continued freeze of Jewish construction in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem (while Arab construction is at an all time high!), reflects miscomprehension of the US political system, ignores lessons from past US commitments and guarantees, and accepts a non-existing linkage between the Iranian nuclear threat on one hand, and the Palestinian issue and US-Israel strategic cooperation on the other hand. 

An examination of past US commitments, guarantees and treaties highlights three critical attributes: 1. Non-Specificity, vagueness and ambiguity, intended to facilitate non- implementation.  2. Non-Automaticity which is a platform for delay, suspension and non-implementation. 3.  Non-Implementation if implementation harms US interests.  For instance, the NATO treaty as ratified by the Senate commits the US only to consider steps on behalf of an attacked NATO member, “as it deems necessary,” “including the use of armed forces.”  Also, in 1954, President Eisenhower signed a defense treaty with Taiwan; but in 1979, President Carter annulled the treaty unilaterally with the support of the US Supreme Court and Congress.

The significance of a Presidential agreement/commitment is substantially constrained by the US Constitution, which is designed to preclude an omnipotent Executive. It does that by an elaborate system of Checks and Balances and the absolute Separation of Powers, which limits Presidential clout on Capitol Hill.  Therefore, a US President is not an all-powerful ruler, but equal-in-power to the Legislature, which possesses the Power of the Purse.  Moreover, the President shares policy-making with Congress, including matters relating to the UN, arms sales, peace and war.  Thus, a US President cannot commit the US without Congressional consent.

For example, in 1999, President Clinton signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, but the Senate has yet to ratify it.  In 1957, President Eisenhower issued an Executive Agreement – in exchange for Israel’s full withdrawal from Sinai – committing US troops on behalf of Israel should Egypt violate the ceasefire.  But, in 1967, Egypt invaded the demilitarized Sinai, expelled the UN troops, blockaded Eilat and established an Arab axis with the self-proclaimed goal of annihilating the Jewish State. President Johnson’s response was to declare Eisenhower’s Executive Agreement non-binding, thus paving the road to the Six Day War. In 1975, President Ford sent a letter to Prime Minister Rabin, stating that the US “will give great weight to Israel’s position that any peace agreement with Syria must be predicated on Israel remaining on the Golan Heights.”  But, in 1979, President Carter contended that Ford’s letter hardly committed Ford – and certainly none of his successors at the White House – to support Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights.  In 1982, the US Congress preconditioned the sale of F-15s to Saudi Arabia upon President Reagan’s commitment that the planes would not be stationed in Tabuq, close to the Israeli border.  But, in 2003, President Bush employed the “changed regional circumstances” argument to justify his acquiescence with the deployment of the planes to Tabuq.  In 1991, President Bush promised Prime Minister Shamir to “positively consider” Israel’s request for $10 billion loan guarantees for the absorption of one million Soviet Jews, in exchange for Shamir’s restraint in the face of Iraq’s Scud missiles hitting Tel Aviv. Shamir fulfilled his commitment, but Bush reneged and even opposed any form of emergency assistance to Israel for damages caused by the Gulf War. However, Israel received the assistance because of Congress and in spite of the Administration.  In 2000, President Clinton promised Prime Minister Barak $800MN for the retreat from Southern Lebanon.  Israel retreated, but the $800MN has yet to reach Jerusalem…

An Israeli embrace of commitments, which are – frequently – written on ice, in return for tangible concessions, reflect detachment from the Washington Constitutional Labyrinth and from significant precedents, at the expense of dire Israeli interests.

Finally, there is no basis for the assumption that Israel’s acceptance of Obama’s promises – in exchange for an extended freeze of Jewish construction in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem – is ostensibly essential for a joint battle against Iran, for a simple reason: There is no linkage between the Iranian nuclear threat on one hand, and Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem on the other hand.  Iran’s nuclear drive aims at advancing a 14 centuries old strategic goal – the domination of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and the Indian Ocean, irrespective of Israel’s policy or Israel’s existence.  Furthermore, the chief hurdle for Iran is the US and NATO involvement in these regions.  Hence, it is the US and NATO, which are the chief targets for Iran’s nuclear capabilities, independent of Israel and its actions.

The acceptance of the false linkage between the Palestinian issue on one hand, and the Iranian threat and US-Israel strategic cooperation on the other hand, subordinates vital US and Israeli interests to Palestinian terrorism, idiosyncrasy, radicalism and systematic violation of agreements, causing a severe setback to US and Israeli strategic concerns and values.






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Israel – from a strategic liability to a strategic asset

“Israel did not grow strong because it had an American alliance. It acquired an American alliance because it had grown strong” (Prof. Walter Russell Mead, a leading historian of US foreign policy).

In 1948, Israel was misconstrued by the State Department as a burden upon the US, too feeble to withstand an all-out Arab military offensive, jeopardizing US ties with the Arab World and potentially pro-Soviet.

However, since 1967, Israel has emerged as the most effective, reliable and democratic ally of the US, and a formidable force-multiplier for the US.

For example:

*The June 1967 Israeli military victory devastated the pro-Soviet Egyptian military, while Egypt was on its way to become the pan-Arab leader, aiming to topple the pro-US regimes of the Arab oil-producing countries, at a time when the US was heavily dependent upon the Persian Gulf oil.  The resounding Israeli victory spared the US a huge economic and national security setback, and denied the USSR a dramatic geo-strategic gold mine.

*25 US military experts went to Israel to study the lessons of the 1967 Six Day War, and to examine the captured Soviet military systems.  Their findings upgraded the performance of the US armed forces and defense industries.

*As a result of the benefits derived by the US, a team of 50 experts arrived in Israel following the 1973 War, collecting information, which benefited the US militarily and industrially, bolstering the US defense of Europe in the face of Soviet threats.

*The December 1969 “Operation Rooster 53” highlighted Israel’s unique intelligence and battle tactic capabilities, which were shared with the US.  An Israeli commando unit snatched from Egypt an advanced Soviet P-12 radar system, which was stationed throughout the world. The Soviet radar was studied by Israel and transferred to the US, as were additional Soviet military systems, enhancing the capabilities of the US intelligence, special operations forces and the US defense industries.

According to the late Senator Daniel Inouye, who was the Chairman of the Appropriations and Intelligence Committees, the value of the Soviet radar to the US defense industries and armed forces was around $3bn.  He added that the scope of intelligence shared with the US, by Israel, exceeded the intelligence shared with the US by all NATO countries combined.

*In 1966 and 1989 Israel acquired MIG-21 and MIG-23 Soviet combat planes through defecting Iraqi and Syrian pilots. The planes were shared with the US, impacting the global balance of power, and enhancing the performance of the US Air Force and the aerospace industries.

*In 1970, Israel manifested its pro-US posture of deterrence by forcing – through its military presence on the Golan Heights – a pull-back of the pro-Soviet Syrian invasion of pro-US Jordan.  Israel spared the US either a loss of an Arab ally, or the need to get involved militarily in an intra-Arab war, while it was bogged down in Southeast Asia. Moreover, the toppling of the pro-US Jordanian regime would have threatened the existence of the pro-US oil-producing regimes in the neighboring Persian Gulf, while the US was heavily dependent upon Persian Gulf oil. Thus, Israel spared the US a major economic and national security blow, and denied the USSR a geo-strategic bonanza.

*The lessons of the July 4, 1976 Entebbe Rescue Operation – which underscored Israel as a role model of pro-active, daring and innovative counter-terrorism – were shared with the US intelligence and special operations forces.

*The 1981 Israeli destruction of Iraq’s nuclear reactor – in defiance of fierce US opposition – spared the US the potential devastation of a nuclear confrontation during the 1991 Gulf War. It saved the pro-US oil-producing Arab regimes from the jaws of Saddam Hussein.

*In the October 1982 “Operation Mole Cricket 19,” Israel’s Air Force destroyed 29 Soviet surface-to-air missile batteries operated by Syria, perceived to be impregnable. It was the first time that a Western-equipped air force destroyed a Soviet-built surface-to-air missile network.  In the process, in the biggest air battle since the Korean War, the Israeli Air Force downed 82 Soviet MIG combat planes without a single loss to Israel’s Air Force. The game-changing Israeli battle tactics, including jamming technologies, were shared with the US armed forces, bolstering the US military edge over the USSR.

*The 2007 Israeli destruction of the Syria-North Korea-Iran nuclear reactor, spared the region and the globe a potential nuclearized civil war in Syria.

*In 2022, against the backdrop of the highly-vulnerable pro-US Arab regimes, the growing vacillation of Europe, and the intensifying threat of the anti-US Sunni and Shiite terrorism, Israel stands out as “the largest US aircraft carrier,” which does not require a single American soldier on board, sparing the US the need to deploy to the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean additional aircraft carriers and ground divisions.

*In 2022, Israel’s posture of deterrence plays a key role in preventing the collapse of the pro-US Arab regimes and the dominance of the anti-US Iran’s Shiite Ayatollahs and the anti-US Sunni Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, which is crucial to global trade, the war on anti-US terrorism and the US-Russia-China balance of power.

*To paraphrase Prof. Walter Russell Mead’s observation: Israel’s posture of deterrence is not growing stronger due to the recent peace accords with Arab countries. Arab countries concluded peace accords with Israel due to the fact that Israel’s posture of deterrence is growing stronger.

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Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb