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McCain – Is It Mission Impossible?

Senator McCain is facing the roughest hurdles ever encountered by a presidential candidate.


Second-term presidents – other than James Monroe – have been burdened by scandals and crises.  Therefore, the US electorate has been, traditionally, reluctant to support a third consecutive White House term for the same party. Thus, Truman was replaced by Eisenhower, Eisenhower was succeeded by Kennedy, LBJ transferred the helm to Nixon, Nixon/Ford were followed by Carter and Clinton by Bush 43rd.  The only exception, since 1954, has been Bush 41st, who was elected on the coattail of Reagan, whose popularity was solid enough to withstand Iran-Gate.


McCain is campaigning during the worst-year-ever for Republican candidates.  The disapproval rating of President Bush and the Republican Party is staggering, and public opinion polls project a Democratic sweep of State legislatures, gubernatorial races, US House of Representatives, US Senate and the White House. Although McCain is the most non-Republican Republican Senator, but in spite of his frequent squabbling with Bush and with the Republican establishment, McCain has been identified with most of Bush’s failures.


The US “elite” media, such as the NY Times, the Washington Post, the L.A. Times the three major networks, CNN and public radio and TV, have unequivocally supported Obama.  The “elite” media heralded McCain during his electoral and legislative confrontations with Bush, but – just like in the case of Hillary Clinton – it turned its back on McCain, once he campaigned against Obama, who is identified with the “elite” media’s Liberal-Dovish agenda.


McCain lost his lead/momentum when the economic collapse became apparent. It is extremely difficult to win a presidential TV debate on a day, when the Dow loses 800 points!  McCain campaigns as the economic collapse hurts every voter in the US: hundreds of thousands of home owners are losing their homes, the price of gasoline is constraining voters’ freedom of movement, unemployment soars, bankruptcies have become a routine, the plight of the credit companies is about to add fuel to the fire and the rising cost of food and health services has afflicted the middle class, which is a critical sector on election day.


McCain opposes a pre-victory withdrawal from Iraq, while most constituents express reservations about a continued war in Iraq.  While the war does not preoccupy the evening news headlines, and although there is a consensus that the US military performance has improved significantly, the war – which is identified with Republican candidates – is perceived as an unjustifiable and unbearable economic, social and political burden.


Supposedly, McCain confronts mission impossible, as evidenced by most polls.  However, there are a number of question marks, which may turn the campaign around:


Is the “Bradley/Wilder Factor” – when black candidates received about 10% less than projected by polls – still viable?


Will public opinion polls cause complacency among Obama’s supporters and determination among McCain’s?


Will conservative Republican repeat the 2004 high turnout, or will many of them stay home – due to their reservations about the Republican candidates – as they did in 1992?


What will be the scope of the “White Angry Vote,” which does not tolerate a liberal-black candidate?


Will the Hispanics vote in accordance with their Democratic-pattern or anti-black pattern?


Will Afro-American and young voters – who ordinarily produce low turnout on Election Day – vote in all time high record numbers?


Will the electorate vote for a solid Democratic government (assuming that a Democratic majority in both federal chambers is guaranteed), or will it vote for a checked-and-balanced government?


Will McCain’s focus on Obama’s credibility, concerning his problematic associations, resonate with Independents?


Does Obama’s inability to surge ahead with a wider gap – in view of the aforementioned significant Democratic home court advantage – attest to Obama’s limitations?


Will “the stretch” of the presidential campaign expose the pitfalls of public opinion polls, allowing McCain to snatch a victory out of the jaws of defeat, as he has done before?



The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb

Secretary Pompeo 2019 vs. President Obama 2009

The January 10, 2019 Cairo, Egypt speech by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – which was cleared by the White House – was a course-setting presentation of the US role in the Middle East.

Pompeo’s ideological and operational speech was aimed at bolstering the US’ posture of deterrence and reassuring pro-US Arab regimes. It was diametrically opposed to President Obama’s vision of the Middle East, which was presented in Cairo, Egypt on June 4, 2009.

In 2009, in Cairo, President Obama introduced his own vision of rejuvenated US relations with Islam and Muslims, highlighting the following guidelines:

“Islam has always been a part of America’s story…. Since our founding, American Muslims have enriched the United States. They have fought in our wars, served in government, stood for civil rights….

“Islam is not part of the problem in combating violent extremism – it is an important part of promoting peace….

“America and Islam are not exclusive… they overlap and share common principles – principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings…. The interests we share as human beings are far more powerful than the forces that drive us apart…. Throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality….

“More recently, tension has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a cold war in which Muslim-majority countries were too often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations.  Moreover, the sweeping change brought by modernity and globalization led many Muslims to view the West as hostile to the traditions of Islam….

“Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance….”

In 2019, in Cairo, Secretary of State, Pompeo, introduced his own assessments of Middle East reality and bluntly recommended policy guidelines:

“When America retreats, chaos often follows. When we neglect our friends, resentment builds. When we partner with enemies, they advance….

“America has confronted the ugly reality of radical Islamism…. America will not retreat until the terror fight is over…. We remain committed to the complete dismantling of ISIS…. defeating Islamist extremism wherever we find it…. We grossly underestimated the tenacity and viciousness of radical Islamism, a debauched strain of the faith that seeks to upend every other form of worship or governance.…

“We must confront the Ayatollahs, not coddle them…. We withdrew from the failed [2015] nuclear deal…. re-imposing sanctions that should have never been lifted…. The nations of the Middle East will never enjoy security…if Iran’s revolutionary regime persists on its current course…. America’s economic sanctions against [Iran]… will keep getting tougher until Iran starts behaving like a normal country…. Iran may think it owns Lebanon; Iran is wrong….

“[The Middle East] witnessed convulsions [not an ‘Arab Spring’] from Tunis to Tehran as old systems crumbled and new ones struggled to emerge…. In falsely seeing ourselves as a force for what ails the Middle East, we were timid in asserting ourselves when the times – and our partners – demanded it….

“Our reluctance to wield our influence kept us silent as the people of Iran rose up [in 2009] against the mullahs in Tehran in the Green Revolution…. Emboldened, the regime spread its cancerous influence to Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon….

“American’s penchant for wishful thinking led us to look the other way as Hezbollah, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian regime, accumulated a massive arsenal of approximately 130,000 rockets and missiles… aimed squarely at our ally, Israel…. The US fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against the Iranian regimes’ aggressive adventurism.  We will continue to ensure that Israel has the military capacity to do so decisively…. We strongly support Israel’s efforts to stop Tehran from turning Syria into the next Lebanon…. President Trump campaigned on the promise to recognize Jerusalem – the seat of Israel’s government – as the national capital.  In May, we moved our embassy there….”

Reviewing both Cairo speeches, one may pose the following questions:

*Is the US war on the 14 century-old relentless Islamic terrorism advanced/undermined by the assumption that Middle East and Western regimes and peoples share similar goals and values?

*Is the long term US counter-terrorism effort well-served by soothing – or militarily combatting – terrorists?

*Is the US better off combatting Islamic terrorists in Middle East trenches or trenches in the US?

*While the US military deterrence in the Middle East would be enhanced by a coalition of pro-US Arab regimes, could it be replaced by such a coalition of regimes, which are inherently tenuous as are their policies and alliances?

*Is the US better off reacting to – or preempting – Islamic terrorism?

*Is the long-term US national security, in general, and counter-terrorism, in particular, well-served by Israel’s operational, intelligence and technological experience and capabilities, in addition to Israel’s reliability as an ally of the US?


The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb