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Israel’s Bad Neighborhood

While the Middle East combusts, threatening vital US interests, the US attempts to clip the wings of Israel – the only reliable, predictable, stable, effective, democratic and unabashedly pro-US firefighter in the region.

Western policy-makers and public opinion molders welcomed the 2011 riots on the Arab Street as an Arab Spring, a people’s revolution and a transition toward democracy. However, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Syria have demonstrated that the Arab Street is experiencing an Arab Tsunami and a transition towards intensified chaos, totally unrelated to the Palestinian issue, which has been a regional sideshow. In fact, Alexei Pushkov, Chairman of the International Committee in Russia’s Duma, stated on July 4, 2013: “the ongoing events in Egypt confirm that the so-called Arab Spring has led not to democratic renewal but to chaos…. We can see this in Egypt, in Libya, in Syria, and in Iraq…. The events in Egypt show that there can’t be a quick and gentle transition from an authoritarian regime to political democracy. There can’t be such a transition in the Arab Middle East countries….”

According to the May 13, 2013 issue of the Singapore-based Today,The beauty of the Arab Spring seems to have given way to an almost unbearable Arab Winter…. The so-called Arab Spring generated a wave of hope among those fighting for – or advocating – democratization of Arab authoritarian regimes. Now, following regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and with a brutal civil war raging in Syria and increasingly fraught conditions in Bahrain, Sudan, Jordan and Iraq…the region has already witnessed [disintegration which] will reverberate beyond the Arab map…. Everywhere in the Arab world — and beyond — [the Arab Winter] has called into question the viability of the nation-state.”

Amir Taheri, a columnist of the Saudi-controlled daily, Asharq Al Awsat, wrote on July 5, 2013: “Even before it was fully under way, the Arab Spring was seen by some Western analysts as the prelude to an Islamic Winter…. The coup against President Mursi in Egypt hints at…a military summer of chaos…. In most cases, change of [Arab] governments has occurred in three ways. One way has been through the assassination of the ruler that dates back to the dawn of Islam…. The second way is through military coup…. With the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and the emergence of several new Arab states centered on newly created armies, changing governments through military coups became an established method. Since the 1920s, Arab nations have experienced around 40 coups—from Oman and Yemen to Algeria, Syria, and Egypt. The fall of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt was due to the Tunisian and Egyptian armies pulling the rug from under the feet of their despots. The third method is through foreign invasion, such as the removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003. The Arab Spring created the hope that another method might be developed: change of government through reasonably clean elections…. [However], crowds are fickle beasts on whose back could ride all manner of unsavory characters…. Mursi was kicked out because of the armed forces…. Egypt would be back to 1952 when Nasser was beginning to build his military dictatorship….”

A major axis of the Arab/Muslim Tsunami – and the most critical obstacle to intra-Arab and Israel-Arab peace – has been Islam, the only common denominator in the violently fragmented Arab Middle East. Since its inception in the 7th century, Islam has been authoritative, coercive, repressive, demanding total submission, violently intolerant of criticism by Muslims, let alone by “infidels.” Thus, Islamic regimes have always regarded freedom of expression, religion, association and free market – the pillars of democracy – as lethal threats. Moreover, Islam has always considered itself to be divinely-ordained to dominate the Christian and Jewish “infidels,” condemning them to “Dhimmitude” (accepting inferiority through peaceful surrender) or annihilation. Therefore, Islam has never tolerated “infidel” sovereignty in the Abode of Islam, as evidenced by Mahmoud Abbas’ hate education system, which refers to the Jewish State as an inhumane entity to be uprooted from the Middle East. Islam’s strategic goal has been to spread Islam throughout the Abode of the Infidel, peacefully or via the sword/war/terrorism. Accordingly, Islam and democracy, as well as Islam and peaceful co-existence with the “infidel,” constitute oxymorons.

The 2013 Middle East – which is increasingly dominated by the 14-century old intra-Muslim chaos, uncertainty, shifty policies and horrific intolerance – is incompatible with a 9-15 mile narrow Israel, as espoused by the well-intentioned US Administration.

The 2013 Middle East highlights the 14-century old tenuous nature of Arab regimes, policies and agreements and the absence of intra-Arab comprehensive peace. However, Israel is pressured to ignore the nature of its Middle East neighborhood and retreat from the tangible mountain ridges of Judea & Samaria – which constitute its cradle of history and over-tower Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and 80% of Israel’s infrastructures – in return for an intangible and tenuous Arab agreement.

Acquaintance with the Middle East environment – and its implications for vital US economic and national security interests – while the US withdraws and cuts its defense budget, warrants a stronger Israel, which is incompatible with the proposed Palestinian state and an Israeli retreat from the Judea & Samaria high ground.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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