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Is Secretary Kerry Reinventing the Middle East?

Secretary of State John Kerry’s November 24, 2015 visit to Jerusalem confirmed his determination to reinvent “the energetic, youthful and forward looking Middle East” in accordance with his own worldview, irrespective of Middle East reality. Kerry recycled well-intentioned, but failed, assessments and tactics, further eroding the US posture of deterrence and US power projection among pro-US Arab countries. 

On October 28, 2015, Secretary John Kerry presented his vision of US policy in the Middle East, convinced that peaceful-coexistence will surmount the inherently complex, unpredictable, violent and intolerant 14-century-old anti-US Islamic Middle East: “Just imagine a future where people from the Nile to Jordan and Euphrates are free to live and work and travel as they choose, where every boy and girl has access to quality education, where visitors are able to flock without fear.”

Kerry’s preference of a Middle East policy driven by the best-case-scenario, rather than reality-driven policy, was highlighted on December 7, 2013: “Imagine what a two-state solution will mean for Israel, Palestine, Jordan and the region. Imagine what it would mean for trade, tourism, technology and for Israeli and Palestinian children…

Kerry’s suspension of disbelief triggered a November 21, 2015 column by Amir Taheri, the most experienced columnist of the prestigious Saudi daily, Asharq al-Awsat, expressing the views of the House of Saud and the Arab world at-large: ”What Kerry offers is mediocre poetry…. [Commissioning] marketing studies while the whole region is in flames…. A fireman trying to put out the flames, so far without success…. Failure on a grand scale…. Under the deal which Kerry was boasting, Iran retains full capacity to build a nuclear arsenal within one year….”  

The reliability of Secretary John Kerry’s policy assessments and recommendations should be evaluated against the backdrop of his own track record.

In 1993, unlike Senator Daniel Inouye, the late Chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee, who defined the Oslo Accord as “a potential funeral of the Jewish State,” then Senator John Kerry embraced Arafat as a messenger of peace, in defiance of the reality: Arafat’s 40 year old trail of terrorism against Jews and (mostly) Arabs. Moreover, in his 1997 book, The New War, Kerry hailed “Arafat’s transformation from outlaw to statesman,” ignoring Arafat’s real transformation – as early as the 1970s – from regional terrorism to a role model of anti-US international terrorism.

In 2015, Secretary Kerry embraces Mahmoud Abbas as a messenger of peace, in defiance of the reality: Mahmoud Abbas’ 70 year old trail of terrorism against Jews and (mostly) Arabs, exacerbated by the establishment in 1993 of the anti-Israel, anti-US and anti-Semitic Palestinian hate education – in kindergartens, schools, mosques and media – which has evolved into the most effective production line of terrorists.

On October 16, 2014, Kerry reiterated his conviction that the Palestinian issue is, supposedly, the crown jewel of Arab policy-makers, the core cause of Middle East turbulence – including Islamic terrorism – and the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict: “As I went around [the Middle East], in the course of our discussions about the anti-ISIL coalition, there wasn’t a leader who did not raise with me, spontaneously, the need to try to get peace between Israel and Palestinians, because it was a cause of recruitment and of street anger and agitation that they felt – and I see a lot of [Department of State personnel] nodding – they had to respond to.  And people need to understand the connection of that. And it has something to do with humiliation and denial and absence of dignity.”  Thus, Kerry, and those who nod their heads at Foggy Bottom, ignore the unbridgeable gap between the Arab talk and the Arab walk on the Palestinian issue, evidenced by Arabs showering Palestinians with rhetoric, but not resources. Contrary to Secretary Kerry and other “Palestine Firsters,” the Palestinian issue has always been a sideshow in the Middle East, as highlighted by the non-Palestinian-related Arab Tsunami. Furthermore, Arabs have never launched a war on behalf of Palestinians. In fact, Arabs have launched military operations against Palestinians, whom they have considered a source of subversion and terrorism.

Until 2011, Senator Kerry was one of the very few US legislators who considered Hafiz, and then Bashar, Assad constructive, reliable, generous, peace-driven leaders, pressuring Israel to concede the Golan Heights.

In 2011, once again, Kerry sacrificed Middle East reality on the altar of his own benevolent worldview, welcoming the Arab Tsunami – which has yet to reach its brutal climax – as an Arab Spring, youth revolution, Facebook revolution and an ostensible transition towards democracy, bringing an end to ruthless dictatorships and sharing with Arabs the blessings of civil liberties and peaceful coexistence. Kerry supported the successful effort to topple Gaddafi (who transferred his nuclear infrastructure to the US in 2003), which transformed post-Gaddafi Libya into the largest, lawless platform of Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, spreading terror offshoots into Africa, Europe and the rest of the world.

In 2015, Kerry is determined to ignore Middle East reality and recycle past US initiatives which failed to advance the cause of Israel-Arab peace, by highlighting mediation rather than direct negotiation.  Kerry overlooks the fact that the only two viable peace accords (Israel-Egypt and Israel-Jordan) were initiated and negotiated directly between the parties. Thus, unintentionally, Kerry’s involvement – featuring the immoral, “moral equivalence” – radicalizes Palestinian positions and actions. It legitimizes and rewards Mahmoud Abbas’ hate-education and incitement – which must be uprooted as a prerequisite to real, durable peace – and therefore indirectly fuels Palestinian terrorism.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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