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Iran – there are reasonable alternatives

The worldview of President Jimmy Carter– which was resoundingly rejected by President Clinton during the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns – has been resuscitated throughout the lengthy negotiations – and the July 2015 agreement – with Iran.  

Consistent with Carter’s worldview, the negotiation process and the agreement with Iran have highlighted the sacrifice of America’s independent unilateral national security action on the altar of multilateralism (which has rarely been a US home court); the erosion of US confidence in its own (well-established) moral and geo-strategic high-ground and capabilities; underestimation of the intensifying threats, by rogue regimes, to the US national and homeland security; the assumption (which defies precedents) that rogue regimes respond constructively to diplomatic engagement rather than to surgical military threat to vital installations (with no troops on the ground); the voluntary abdication of pro-active US global leadership (at a time when the US and global sanity need it desperately); and the collapse of the US power-projection and posture of deterrence (lower than its breakdown during the Carter era).

In 1979, President Carter stabbed the back of the Shah of Iran, “the US policeman of the Gulf ” and facilitated the Ayatollahs’ rise to power; in 2015, his worldview has dealt a lethal blow to the Iranian opposition, catapulting the Ayatollahs to an unprecedented strategic height, domestically, regionally and globally, thereby jeopardizing critical US economic and defense interests, bringing terrorism closer to the North American continent.

The self-destructive nature of the Iran agreement is evident when studying the reaction in the Middle East: praised by the anti-US, radical, terroristic, rogue Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestinian Authority; condemned by the pro-US, relatively moderate regimes of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan and Egypt.

On July 15, 2015, the editor-in-chief of the House of Saud-owned daily, A Sharq Al Awsat stated: “The Iran nuclear deal opens the gates of evil in the Middle East… No wise person would believe that Iran will give up its policy of destabilizing the region…. Western governments will be under [economic and political] pressure to make the deal succeed, and therefore turn a blind eye to many of Iran’s destabilizing policies….”

On July 17, 2015, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, a senior member of the royal family, former chief of the Saudi intelligence and former Saudi Ambassador to the US, asserted: “the nuclear deal will wreak havoc in the Middle East, which is already experiencing a disastrous environment, with Iran as a major destabilizing player…. The Iran deal is Deja’ vu in relation to President Clinton’s 1994 North Korean nuclear deal.  In 2003, North Korea declared it had manufactured nuclear weapons…. America’s allies in the Middle East predict a worse outcome of the Iran nuclear deal, considering the billions of dollars that will benefit Iran…. ”

Unlike North Korea whose territorial claims are limited to the Korean Peninsula, the Ayatollahs’ territorial claims – featuring prominently in their school textbooks, weekly sermons and daily subversive and terroristic operations – transcend Iran, the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and the Muslim World. Unlike North Korea which is deterred by MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction), the apocalyptic Ayatollahs are not deterred – but energized – by MAD. For example, The Qur’an and Life (Grade 12, p. 125) prepares children for the apocalyptic war against the US, and Defense Readiness (Grade 11, p. 11) praises the 500,000 children who were sent to clear the minefields during the war against Iraq

A reasonable alternative to the July 2015 agreement with Iran would reject the Carter state of mind, resurrecting US confidence in its moral and strategic exceptionalism, unilateral action, defiance of odds, a sense of realism in the face of rogue regimes, restoring US power-projection and its posture of deterrence.

A common sense alternative to the agreement with Iran would precondition benefits to Iran upon an end to the current conventional threats to global stability, posed by the Ayatollahs. The benefits to Iran resulting from the July 2015 agreement add fuel to these threats.

A common sense alternative would focus on the 36 year lawless, rogue, violent, supremacist, megalomaniac, non-tolerant, repressive and systematically non-compliant track record of the Ayatollahs, who consider the US the prime obstacle – and therefore the prime target – on the road of attaining their prime historical goal of regional and global hegemony.   

A common sense alternative would precondition the $150bn windfall to the Ayatollahs (37% of their GDP) – in addition to the mega-billion dollar flow of oil revenues ($60bn annually), foreign investments and advanced military systems (fortifying their nuclear infrastructure) – upon a striking disavowal of their 36 year old anti-US policy: hate and apocalypse-driven k-12 school text books, systematic anti-US Friday sermons; the annual November 4 “Death to America Day;” bankrolling Islamic terrorism in Asia, Africa, Europe and the USA; terrorizing and subverting every pro-US Arab country (which could cause havoc to the supply and price of oil); the nuclear and ballistic collaboration with North Korea; the anti-US alliance with Venezuela; and the agitation of Latin America, including Mexico (which amounts to US homeland security).

A common sense alternative would not reward, embolden and “turbo-charge” the conventional capabilities of the Ayatollahs, while they target – diplomatically and operationally – “the arrogant, usurper, oppressor, infidel, idolatrous Great Satan, the USA.”

A common sense alternative contends that elevating this agreement (which is a means) to the role of a goal would be at the expense of the real goal; and that the details of an agreement are significantly less pertinent than the details of the Ayatollahs’ 36 year track record.

A common sense alternative would retain the threat of a surgical military action (no troops on the ground), highlighting Secretary of Defense Carter’s April 10, 2015 statement: “We have the capability to shut down, set back and destroy the Iranian nuclear program.”  The 1988 surgical US bombing of Iranian installations ended the eight-year Iraq-Iran war.  In 2015, the threat of a surgical US bombing would spare the globe conventional upheaval and a nuclear war.

A common sense alternative to the agreement with Iran assumes that reality – and not hope (or wishful-thinking) – must be the basis for a national security strategy.  Driving at night – in the Iranian darkness – would be much safer with the headlights on rather than reliance on hope.




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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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