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Gaza Disengagement – Undermining U.S. Interests

The impact of Israel’s “disengagement” (retreat) from terrorist strongholds in Gaza and Samaria would not be limited to Israel. “Disengagement” would undermine vital American interests in the Middle East and beyond.

“Disengagement” would be inconsistent with America’s non-compromising war on Islamic terrorism. Retreat by Israel, the role model of countering terrorism, would reward and energize regional and global terrorism, including anti-American terror lords. “Disengagement” would bolster the Palestinian Authority, which has been the most sustained pro-Saddam, pro-Bin Laden, pro-Iran, pro-Russia, pro-North Korea, and pro-China regime in the Middle East. “Disengagement” would transfer control of Gaza air and sea ports to the Palestinian Authority. They could become a platform for Iranian, Russian, Chinese, North Korean intelligence and military personnel and equipment, at the expense of American posture in the eastern flank of the Mediterranean. “Disengagement” would upgrade the position of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which has been the most lethal threat to the pro-American, feeble Hashemite regime in Jordan. “Disengagement” would re-engage the military forces of Egypt and Israel in a terror-ridden area. It would lead – inadvertently or intentionally – to diplomatic and possibly military confrontations, exacerbating regional instability, and sucking America into an unnecessary conflict between two of its allies.

“Disengagement” and American interests constitute an oxymoron, as evidenced also by recent precedents. The July 2000 Israeli “disengagement” from South Lebanon has propelled Hezbollah from a small local terrorist group to a prominent regional terrorist organization, haunting American GIs in Iraq and Afghanistan. The 1994-98 series of “disengagements” from 85% of Gaza and 40% of the Judea and Samaria have created the largest terrorist base in the world, controlled by the PLO, the role model of hijacking, hate education, and international terrorism. It has caused the Hashemites to be sleepless in Amman, and it has provided a platform and a tailwind to Middle Eastern terrorists, including Palestinians fighting America in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The time to examine the impact of Israel’s “disengagement” on vital American interests is before – and not after – its dire consequences fall upon American GIs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

President Bush has elucidated his opposition to the concept of “disengagement” (retreat) in his June 28, 2005, speech at Fort Bragg: “Terrorists believe [that] they can force us to retreat. They are mistaken. … There is only one course of action against them: to defeat them abroad before they attack us at home. …” Mr. Bush has presented a worldview that professes a comprehensive, devastating offensive on the terrorists’ own ground. He aims to obliterate the political, financial, and operational infrastructure, while refusing to negotiate, appease, or retreat.

Mr. Bush has concluded the proper lessons from a series of American “disengagements,” which emboldened Islamic terrorism. In 1979, America “disengaged” from Iran following the embassy takeover by terrorists. In 1983, America “disengaged” from Lebanon following the murder of 300 Americans by PLO and Syria-assisted Hezbollah terrorists. In 1993, America “disengaged” from Somalia, in reaction to the lynching of American Marines by Muslim terrorists. These “disengagements” fueled anti-American terrorism, which intensified in 1993, 1995-96, 1998, 2000, and 2001 with the first attempt on the Twin Towers, the terror attacks on American GIs in Saudi Arabia, the explosions in the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the murder of 17 sailors on the USS Cole in Aden, and the terror blitz of September 11, 2001.

Mr. Bush is determined to avoid errors committed by former presidents, who preferred “disengagement” from – rather than head on military engagement with – terror regimes. They confined counter-terror to limited operations, and promoted negotiation and cease-fire with terrorist regimes. Their “disengagement” from a decisive battle against terrorism, facilitated the engagement of terrorists with the American mainland.

Since 1993, the Palestinian Authority has benefited from a sequence of American-encouraged Israeli “disengagements.” Since 1993, America has been plagued by an unprecedented wave of Islamic terrorism, which has been energized by Israel’s retreats in the face of Palestinian terrorists. Would America encourage Israel to persist in “disengagements” (retreats), thus learning from history by repeating – rather than by avoiding – costly errors?





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The Abraham Accords – the US, Arab interests and Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan believe that the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the enhancement of Israel-Saudi defense and commercial cooperation and the conclusion of an Israel-Saudi Arabia peace accord are preconditioned upon major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Is such a belief consistent with Middle East reality?

Arab interests

*The signing of the Abraham Accords, and the role played by Saudi Arabia as a critical engine of the accords, were driven by the national security, economic and diplomatic interests of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and the Sudan.

*The Arab interest in peace accords with Israel was not triggered by the realization that the Jewish State was genuinely seeking peaceful-coexistence, nor by a departure from the fundamental tenets of Islam. It was motivated by the assessment that critical concerns of the respective Arab countries would be effectively-served by Israel’s advanced military (Qualitative Military Edge), technological and diplomatic capabilities in the face of mutual and lethal enemies, such as Iran’s Ayatollahs and Muslim Brotherhood terrorism.

*Saudi Arabia and the six Arab peace partners of Israel (including Egypt and Jordan) are aware that the Middle East resembles a volcano, which occasionally releases explosive lava – domestically and/or regionally – in an unpredictable manner, as evidenced by the 1,400-year-old stormy intra-Arab/Muslim relations, and recently demonstrated by the Arab Tsunami, which erupted in 2011 and still rages.

They wish to minimize the impact of rogue regimes, and therefore are apprehensive about the nature of the proposed Palestinian state, in view of the rogue Palestinian inter-Arab track record, which has transformed Palestinians into an intra-Arab role model of subversion, terrorism, treachery and ingratitude.

*They are anxious about the erosion of the US posture of deterrence, which is their most critical component of national security, and alarmed about the 43-year-old US diplomatic option toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, which has bolstered the Ayatollahs’ terroristic, drug trafficking and ballistic capabilities. They are also concerned about the US’ embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the largest Sunni terrorist entity with religious, educational, welfare and political branches. And, they are aware of the ineffectiveness of NATO (No Action Talk Only?), the European vacillation, and the vulnerability of all other Arab countries.

Israel’s role

*Saudi Arabia and the Arab partners to peace accords with Israel feel the machetes of the Ayatollahs and the Moslem Brotherhood at their throats. They consider Israel as the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.  They view Israel as the most effective US force-multiplier in the Middle East, and appreciate Israel’s proven posture of deterrence; flexing its military muscles against Iran’s Ayatollahs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran itself and against Palestinian and Hezbollah terrorism. They respect Israel’s unique counter-terrorism intelligence and training capabilities, and its game-changing military and counter-terrorism battle tactics and technologies.

*The Arab view of Israel as a reliable partner on “a rainy day” has been bolstered by Israel’s willingness to defy US pressure, when it comes to Israel’s most critical national security and historic credos (e.g., Iran, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria).  In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel’s peace-partners aim to leverage Israel’s good-standing among most Americans – and therefore among most Senators and House Representatives – as a venue to enhance their military, commercial and diplomatic ties with the US.

*Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are preoccupied with the challenge of economic diversification, realizing that they are overly-reliant on oil and natural gas, which are exposed to price-volatility, depletion and could be replaced by emerging cleaner and more cost-effective energy.

Thus, they consider Israel’s ground-breaking technologies as a most effective vehicle to diversify their economy, create more jobs in non-energy sectors, and establish a base for alternative sources of national income, while bolstering homeland and national security.

*The Abraham Accords – as well as Israel’s peace accords with Egypt and Jordan – and the unprecedented expansion of defense and commercial cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, demonstrate that critical Arab national security interests may supersede fundamental tenets of Islam, such as the 1,400-year-old rejection of any “infidel” sovereignty in “the abode of Islam.”  Moreover, critical national security interests may lead to a dramatic moderation of the (Arab) education system, which is the most authentic reflection of one’s vision and policies.

Thus, contrary to the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates has uprooted hate-education curriculum, replacing it with pro-Israel/Jewish curriculum.

Abraham Accords’ durability

*The success of the Abraham Accords was a result of avoiding the systematic mistakes committed by the US State Department. The latter has produced a litany of failed peace proposals, centered on the Palestinian issue, while the Abraham accords bypassed the Palestinian issue, avoiding a Palestinian veto, and focusing on Arab interests. Therefore, the durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the interests of the respective Arab countries, and not on the Palestinian issue, which is not a top priority for any Arab country.

*The durability of the Abraham Accords depends on the stability of the individual Arab countries and the Middle East at-large.

*The Abraham Accord have yielded initial and unprecedented signs of moderation, modernity and peaceful coexistence, which requires the US to support the respective pro-US Arab regimes, rather than pressuring them (e.g., Saudi Arabia and the UAE).

*However, one should not ignore the grave threats to the durability of the accords, posed by the volcanic nature of the unstable, highly-fragmented, unpredictable, violently intolerant, non-democratic and tenuous Middle East (as related to intra-Arab relations!).  These inherent threats would be dramatically alleviated by a resolute US support.

*A major threat to the Abraham Accord is the tenuous nature of most Arab regimes in the Middle East, which yields tenuous policies and tenuous accords. For example, in addition to the Arab Tsunami of 2010 (which is still raging on the Arab Street), non-ballot regime-change occurred (with a dramatic change of policy) in Egypt (2013, 2012, 1952), Iran (1979, 1953), Iraq (2003, 1968, 1963-twice, 1958), Libya (2011, 1969), Yemen (a civil war since the ’90s, 1990, 1962), etc.

*Regional stability, the Abraham Accords and US interests would be undermined by the proposed Palestinian state west of the Jordan River (bearing in mind the intra-Arab Palestinian track record). It would topple the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River; transforming Jordan into another platform of regional and global Islamic terrorism, similar to Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen; triggering a domino scenario, which would threaten every pro-US Arab oil-producing country in the Arabian Peninsula; yielding a robust tailwind to Iran’s Ayatollahs, Russia and China and a major headwind to the US.

*While Middle East reality defines policies and accords as variable components of national security, the topography and geography of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the Golan Heights are fixed components of Israel’s minimal security requirements in the reality of the non-Western Middle East. Israel’s fixed components of national security have secured its survival, and have dramatically enhanced its posture of deterrence. They transformed the Jewish State into a unique force and dollar multiplier for the US.

*The more durable the Abraham Accords and the more robust Israel’s posture of deterrence, the more stable the pro-US Arab regimes and the Middle East at-large; the more deterred are anti-US rogue regimes; the less potent are Middle Eastern epicenters of anti-US terrorism and drug trafficking; the more bolstered is the US global posture and the weaker is the posture of the US’ enemies and adversaries.

*Would the Arab regimes of the Abraham Accords precondition their critical ties with Israel upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, which they view as a rogue element? Would they sacrifice their national security and economic interests on the altar of the Palestinian issue? Would they cut off their nose to spite their face?

The fact that these Arab regimes concluded the Abraham Accords without preconditioning it upon Israeli concessions to the Palestinians, and that they limit their support of the Palestinians to talk, rather than walk, provides an answer to these three questions.

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