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Congressional Elections – Critical to US-Israel Relations

During a June 15, 2012 seminar at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Dr. Bill Schneider, a leading expert on US politics, reaffirmed that both chambers of Congress play a key role in determining US-Israel relations.

In 1990, the US Secretary of the Navy asked Senator Inouye, Chairman of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, to delete from the proposed defense bill an amendment to upgrade the port of Haifa for the benefit of the Sixth Fleet:  “Senator, I am the Secretary of the Navy, and I know that the Six Fleet does not need the upgrade.”  Inouye retorted: “Mr. Secretary, according to the US Constitution, I supervise you, and I have determined that the Sixth Fleet would benefit from such an upgrade.”  Inouye’s position derived from the end of the Cold War which eroded the importance of the port of Naples, and from the gathering sandstorms from the Persian Gulf (leading to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait) which enhanced the significance of the port of Haifa for the Sixth Fleet. The port of Haifa was upgraded despite opposition by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker who orchestrated Secretary Lehman’s appeal.

The recent Egyptian turmoil exposes the uncertainty surrounding US-Egypt relations and the reliability of the port of Alexandria. Therefore, it has elevated the relevance of the Israeli ports of Haifa and Ashdod to the Sixth Fleet. It underscores the vitality of Congress as a joint-front-seat-driver in setting the national security agenda.

In November 2012, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 33 U.S. senators and thousands of state and local elected officials, some of whom will eventually reach Capitol Hill. According to a July 23, 2012 Rasmussen national poll, since mid-2009, Republican congressional candidates have been systematically more popular than Democrats. 43% of likely voters would vote for Republican congressional candidates, if the election were held today, while 40% would elect Democrats.  

Most polls document a strong possibility of a sustained – although moderately eroded – Republican House majority (currently at 242:190 and 3 vacancies).  Democrats need a robust tailwind – which is not in sight at this stage – to regain the House majority. At the same time, the Senate Democratic majority is vulnerable (53:47).  However, the number of toss-up Senate races – such as Florida, Massachusetts, Maine, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico and Hawaii – is relatively large.  Therefore, the race for the Senate majority – which may indicate the winner of the presidency – is wide open.

House and Senate majorities will be greatly affected by the presidential approval rating on election date.  Will Obama be a “coattail president,” sweeping his party to victories, as he did in 2008 (69% approval rating), or will he be an “anchor-chained president,” dragging his party to defeats, as he did in 2010(46%), and as Presidents Bush (34%), Carter (37%) and Ford (45%) did in 1992, 1980 and 1976 respectively?

The fate of congressional races, also, depends on the number of Democratic and Republican seats on the ballot. The higher is the number of seats, the higher is the vulnerability of the party.  Thus, the Senate Democratic majority is threatened by the 23 Democratic-held Senate seats – in contrast to only 10 Republican-held seats – on the ballot in November.  However, the substantial Republican House majority – which exposes more Republican seats – provides an opportunity for a Democratic gain in the House.

Congressional retirements may indicate an electoral trend, in addition to a reflection of political aspirations or fatigue.  Hence, the six Democratic – versus three Republican – retirements from the Senate, and the 15D:11R retirement ratio in the House, could reflect legislators’ own assessments of the odds in the November election.

The outcome of the Congressional races will, also, be determined by the turnout rate and by the appeal of the individual candidates to the Independents, who account for some 40% of the electorate.   Usually, the Independents include “swing voters,” “switchovers” and “undecided voters.”  The turnout rate will be influenced by the enthusiasm and frustration factors (e.g. “Anti-establishment,” “Hope & Change,” shattered 2008 hopes) generated by the presidential and congressional candidates.

In order to realize the significance of the November 2012 congressional elections, one should be aware that Congress is the most powerful legislature in the world.  This is the co-equal, co-determining branch of the US government, the most authentic representative of the American people, which has the muscle – when it chooses to exercise it – to initiate, amend, suspend and overrule presidential policies.

International observers, and especially friends of Israel, should focus on the congressional races.  When it comes to third down and ten yards to go, Israel has no better, trusted and effective friend than both chambers of the US Congress.

 

 




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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