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Can President Obama Pressure Israel Effectively?

President Obama cannot pressure Israel effectively when it comes to suspension of joint military exercises, disruption of the supply of advanced military systems, supporting anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council, etc.

Contrary to President Obama and all prior US presidents (since 1948), Congress has displayed systematic and sweeping bi-partisan support of the Jewish state, which constitutes one of the very few bi-partisan consensus topics on an otherwise highly polarized Capitol Hill.  In fact, since the conclusion of the 1993 Oslo Accords – when Israel ceded the Gaza Strip and 40% of Judea and Samaria to the PLO – many US legislators have outflanked Israeli prime ministers from the hawkish side.  

According to the US political system of limited government and checks and balances – and unlike all other democracies – the Executive (the President) is balanced by the Legislature (the Congress), which is co-equal and co-determining, independent of the President, possessing the power of the purse and the muscle (but not always the will) to amend and suspend presidential policies, as well as to initiate its own domestic, foreign and national security policy.  

Congress has demonstrated its foreign policy and national security muscles – in defiance of presidential policies – by ending the US military involvement in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia (the Eagleton, Cooper and Church Amendments), Angola (the Clark Amendment) and Nicaragua (the Boland Amendment); forcing the USSR to open its gates to free emigration (the Jackson-Vanik Amendment); suspending the supply of AWACs to Iran on the eve of the Khomeini revolution; refusing to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; upgrading US-Israel strategic cooperation in a significant manner; providing Israel with advanced military systems; and forcing the Obama Administration, in February 2011, to prevent Israel’s condemnation in the UN Security Council.   

President Obama would like to resolve the Palestinian issue by squeezing Israel into the 9-15 mile pre-1967 sliver along the Mediterranean, including the repartitioning of Jerusalem.  However, he does not consider the Palestinian issue a top priority as are the debt ceiling, Medicare, entitlements, immigration/amnesty, gun and energy reforms, the appointment of Supreme Court and Federal Judges, etc., which require the support of all Democratic legislators, most of whom have been systematic supporters of Israel. Obama will not sacrifice the cooperation of his fellow Democrats on the altar of the Palestinian issue.

Moreover, US-Israel relations do not evolve around the Palestinian issue.  Therefore, US-Israel strategic cooperation is surging in spite of the disagreement between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the Palestinian issue. Furthermore, the much deeper gap between Israeli and American leaders from 1948 through 1992 did not prevent the dramatic expansion of commercial and military cooperation. Thus, America’s national security and economic interests – and its bilateral ties with Israel – transcend the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Palestinian issue, which has never been a top Arab priority, and whose limited impact on regional developments is illustrated by the Arab Tsunami, which is completely independent of the Palestinian issue.

The anti-US Arab Tsunami (gullibly branded as the Arab Spring) on the one hand, and the US shrinking power-projection on the other hand, have underlined Israel’s unique role as the only stable, predictable, reliable, capable, democratic and unconditional ally of the US in the Middle East. Israel’s growing contribution to vital US interests has transformed US-Israel ties into a mutually-beneficial, win-win, two-way street. For example, while the US generously assists Israel’s procurement of Iron Dome batteries, Israel has shared with the US the Israeli-developed Iron Dome technology, which is a cutting edge, short-range missile defense technology, enhancing US national security. In addition, the US is manufacturing an increasing share of the Iron Dome and will be the sole exporter of that unique system. Israel has become the battle-tested laboratory of the US defense industries, sharing with US defense contractors thousands of operational, maintenance and repair lessons, which have upgraded the quality of US defense systems (combat planes, tanks, armed personnel carriers, robots, UAVs, etc.), expanding US employment, enhancing US research and development and increasing US exports to the tune of mega-billion of dollars.

Even if Obama had the capability to pressure Israel effectively, he would not do so before the November, 2014 mid-term “itch” election, which traditionally does not bode well for second-term presidents, who are historically weaker than during their first term.  Being perceived as hostile to Israel – at a time when Israel enjoys the support of most Americans, while Obama’s approval rating is trending downward – would undermine the campaigns of House and Senate Democrats and jeopardize the chance of sustaining the fragile Senate Democratic majority.  The loss of the Senate majority would transform Obama into a lame-duck president until January, 2017.

All Israeli prime ministers, from David Ben Gurion (1948) through Yitzhak Shamir (1992), defied severe American pressure – which dwarfed the current tension between Obama and Netanyahu – while possessing slimmer military, economic, demographic and diplomatic assets.  Their steadfastness and defiance triggered short-term tension/crisis, but produced long-term strategic respect toward Israel’s posture of deterrence, tenacity and conviction-driven leadership. On a rainy day, the US is better off with a defiant, rather than a feeble, ally.




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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