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Can Israel Defy a Second Term President?

The assumption that second term US presidents are omnipotent, and therefore can bulldozer their way through anything – including the exertion of insurmountable pressure on Israel – ignores the most fundamental elements of the US political system: limited government, separation of powers, checks and balances and the centrality of the constituent, deliberately designed to avoid an all-powerful Executive.

Second term Presidents may wish – but are unable – to extricate themselves from the strict constitutional constraints, demonstrated by the power of the US constituency and the co-equal, co-determining Congress, which have been systematically pro-Israel.

The mystique of the Second Term Imperial Presidency tends to smother Israeli policy-makers and public opinion molders, who misunderstand the US political system, which is dramatically different from the Israeli and European systems.

Contrary to conventional misperception, second term presidents reach their peak on inauguration day, as has been documented since George Washington’s second term, when the US was on the verge of a civil warFrom then forward, most second-term presidents have been burdened by the second term lame-duck slump. 

One of the causes of the inherently weaker second term is the different political life expectancy of House Members (unlimited two-year terms), Senators (unlimited six- year terms) and presidents (limited two four-year terms).  Therefore, second term presidents are handicapped by a pressing timetable, pursue relatively quick results/solutions and are anxious to establish (overly) ambitious legacies.  On the other hand, the legislators who benefit from long-term continuity, attempt to minimize swift action, which might upset their constituents, thus jeopardizing their re-election prospects. Legislators are more loyal to district and state constituents than they are to presidents.  Consequently, they rarely sacrifice their political lives on the altar of a presidential vision.

Term-limited presidents fade away gradually.  Their power to reward allies and punish adversaries – in Congress – diminishes every day.

Thus, all post WW2 second term presidents have performed less effectively than during their first term, primarily due to erosion of congressional support, including their own party legislators.  For instance, according to the Congressional Quarterly (January 3, 1998), Eisenhower’s initiatives were supported by 89% of congressional votes during his first year in office; but only by 52% and 65% during his last two years.  Nixon enjoyed 74% support during his first year, compared with 60% before resigning to avoid impeachment. Reagan benefitted from 82% congressional support during his first year, plummeting to 47% during the last year of his second term. And, Clinton surged to 86% in 1993, but collapsed to 54% in 1997.

The second term decline is also triggered by unpredictable local and global military and economic crises, worn out senior advisors to the president, an overly-ambitious presidential agenda, presidential arrogance and scandals (e.g., Clinton’s Monica Lewinsky, Reagan’s Irangate, Nixon’s Watergate, etc.) , which are more likely to gain critical mass during a second term.

This second term decline is exacerbated by the outcome of the six year mid-term (“itch”) election, which has dealt a blow to all recent presidents, other than Clinton. If the November 2014 “itch” election were held today, the Republicans could gain control of the Senate, in addition to their current majority in the House, paralyzing Obama’s presidency.

President Obama may already experience the second term slump, as evidenced by the downturn of his popularity (trending towards 40%), and caused by ObamaCare, the murder of Americans in Benghazi, the targeting of conservative groups by the IRS, the seizure of Associated Press’ telephone records by the Justice Department, the NSA’s over-reaching surveillance programs, etc.

Is Obama following in the footsteps of President George W. Bush, whose ability to preside was decimated by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the handling of Hurricane Katrina, the failure of Social Security reforms and the 2008 economic meltdown?

When smothered by the aforementioned lethal sandstorms, President Obama cannot afford, and is unable, to be preoccupied with effectively pressuring Israel, which is overwhelmingly supported by the American people and Congress in rare bipartisan fashion.




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Congress – the co-equal and systematic ally of Israel

Presidents propose and Congress disposes

On September 23, 2021, the US House of Representatives voted 420:9 to replenish the Israeli-developed defensive “Iron Dome” missiles, which are increasingly manufactured – and eventually exported – by the US defense company Raytheon, that benefits from the battle-tested “Israeli laboratory.”

The overwhelming vote reflects Congressional realization that the “Iron Dome”:

*Enhances Israel’s posture of deterrence, which is critical to the survival of all pro-US Arab regimes and minimization of regional instability;
*Reduces the need for full-scale Israeli wars on Palestinian and Islamic terrorism;
*Provides an alternative to Israeli military ground-operations against Palestinian terrorists, which would entail substantial Israeli and Palestinian fatalities;
*Represents joint US-Israel interests, militarily and technologically, in the face of mutual threats (e.g., Islamic terrorism) and mutual challenges (e.g., developing world-class, game-changing technologies).

*Constitutes another example of the systematic support by Congress of enhanced US-Israel cooperation.

The decisive role played by Congress in the replenishment of the “Iron Dome” underscores the cardinal rule of the US political system: The President proposes, but Congress disposes.

The involvement of Senators and House Representatives in foreign policy and national security-related issues has surged since the Vietnam War, Watergate and Iran Gate scandals, the dismantling of the USSR (which transformed the world from a bi-polar to a multi-polar) and rapidly-expanding globalization.

In fact, former Secretary of State, Jim Baker, complained about the growing congressional assertiveness in the area of foreign policy: “You can’t conduct foreign policy with 535 Secretaries of State….”  Former Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney, criticized Congress for micromanaging the defense budget: dictating how much to spend on particular weapons, imposing detailed requirements and programmatic restrictions, venturing into policy-setting and requesting that the Department of Defense submits mountains of reports.

Congressional muscles 

The US Congress is the most powerful legislature in the world, and it has demonstrated its co-equal, co-determining muscle in the areas of foreign and defense policies on many occasions, such as:

*Imposing sanctions against foreign countries in defiance of Presidents Clinton, Obama and Trump (e.g., Egypt – 2012, Iran – 1996-97 and 2013, Russia – 2017);
*Non-ratification of the 2015 JCPOA, which enabled withdrawal by the US;
*The 2009 non-closure of the Guantanamo Detention Camp was led by Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid (NV-D), in defiance of President Obama.
*The 2009 non-confirmation of Charles Freeman to the Director of National Intelligence was led by Senator Chuck Schumer (NY-D);
*The 1999 non-ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in defiance of President Clinton and the international community;
*The unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation took place despite stiff opposition by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker;
*The Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act overrode President Reagan’s veto;
*The 1984 Boland Amendment aborted President Reagan’s financial and military aid to anti-Communist elements in Nicaragua;
*The 1983 blocking of President Reagan’s attempted coup against the Surinam pro-Soviet regime;
*The 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act mandated congressional authorization of surveillance of persons and organizations, which may threaten national security;
*The 1975/76 Tunney (CA-D) and Clark Amendments stopped financial and military covert support of the opposition to the pro-Soviet regime in Angola;
*The 1973 Church-Case Amendment ended funding of military involvement in Southeast Asia;
*The 1973 War Powers Act overrode President Nixon’s veto;
*The Jackson-Vanik Amendment preconditioned aid to Moscow upon free immigration.

Congress empowered by the Constitution

As documented in the aforementioned paragraphs, one is advised to note that while Congress is preoccupied with District and State issues, it has the power to both propose and dispose in the areas of foreign and defense policies.

The US Constitution aspires for a limited government and a non-monarchical president, and therefore does not limit Congress to overseeing the budget. It provides the Senate and the House of Representatives with the power to act on strategic issues and policy-setting.

The Constitution accords Congress ”the power of the purse,” oversight of government operations, ratification of treaties, confirmation of key appointments, declaration of war, funding of military operations and cooperation with foreign entities, creation and elimination of government agencies, imposing sanctions on foreign governments, etc.

In other words, the President is the “commander in-chief” within constraints, which are set by Congress.




Videos

The post-1967 turning point of US-Israel cooperation

Israeli benefits to the US taxpayer exceed US foreign aid to Israel

Iran - A Clear And Present Danger To The USA

Exposing the myth of the Arab demographic time bomb