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A Palestinian state: is it good/bad for the USA?

Israel Hayom,”  http://bit.ly/2kTtlxL

In 1948, the US State Department’s conventional “wisdom” contended that the reestablishment of a Jewish state would damage US interests, since the Jewish state would be aligned with the USSR, undermine US-Arab relations, intensify regional instability, and would be militarily devastated by its Arab neighbors, thus causing a second Jewish Holocaust in less than ten years.

However, conventional “wisdom” was trounced on the rocks of Middle East reality, as it was when: the State Department appeased Egyptian President Nasser (1950s); facilitated the toppling of the Shah of Iran by the Ayatollas (1977-78); embraced Saddam Hussein, and inadvertently encouraged his August 1989 invasion of Kuwait; proclaimed Arafat as a messenger of peace (1993); welcomed the Arab Tsunami as the Arab Spring, a transition toward democracy (2011); supported the anti-US Muslim Brotherhood offensive against the pro-US Egyptian President Mubarak, and turned a cold shoulder toward the pro-US President al-Sisi (2011-2017); toppled the Kaddafi regime, thus transforming Libya into a major platform of Islamic terrorism (2011), etc.

In 2017, conventional “wisdom” maintains that the Palestinian issue is the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict, a core cause of Middle East turbulence and a crown-jewel of Arab policy-making. It assumes that the US can reset the Middle East by applying its own values of common-sense, peace and democracy.  Moreover, conventional “wisdom” contends that the proposed Palestinian state constitutes an integral part of the Israel-Arab peace process, reducing regional instability, and therefore advances US national security interests.

But, a reality-check of the proposed Palestinian state and its impact upon US national security, drastically contradicts conventional “wisdom,” when assessed against the backdrop of the 14-centuries-old volcanic actuality of the Middle East, the Jordan-Palestinian inherent clash of a zero-sum-game, the systematic track record of the Arab walk – not talk – toward the Palestinians, and the track record of the Palestinians since the 1920s.

For instance, all attempts to introduce democracy and peace to the Arab Middle East have been defeated by deeply-rooted intra-Arab violent intolerance, fragmentation, instability, unpredictability and the tenuous nature of all Arab regimes, policies and agreements, irrespective of Israel and the Palestinian issue. Hence, the failure of all US and international initiatives to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Palestinian issue, which exposes the unbridgeable gap between Western and Arab state of minds, further radicalizing Arab expectations and actions, and undermines US interests.

Furthermore, while the US – rightly so – invests billions of dollars to bolster Jordan’s Hashemite regime, a Palestinian state would intensify a lethal threat to the highly vulnerable, pro-US Hashemite regime. It would trigger destabilizing ripple effects into pro-US Saudi Arabia and all other pro-US Arab Gulf states, providing a robust tailwind to Islamic terrorism. Potentially, it could advance the Ayatollahs’ goal of dominating the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Peninsula, much of the Indian Ocean and the military and energy critical waterways of Hurmuz and Bab el-Mandeb. It could produce an Iran-controlled bloc from Iran, through Iraq and Jordan to 10 miles from the Mediterranean.

In October 1994, during the Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, top Jordanian military and intelligence officers cautioned their Israeli colleagues: “Don’t allow the establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, because it would doom the Hashemite regime east of the River; and, be aware that agreements signed with the Palestinians in the morning are violated by night time.”

The pro-US Hashemite regime is aware of the zero-sum-game relations between itself and the Palestinian Authority/PLO, as demonstrated by the latter’s strategic goal to control the whole of British Mandate Palestine on both sides of the Jordan River.  The Palestinian Authority and the PLO claim to represent all Palestinians, including those in Jordan, who constitute the largest Palestinian community and the majority of Jordanians. Hence, the pre-1948 clashes between King Abdullah (who was murdered by a Palestinian in 1951) and the Palestinian Mufti Haj Amin al-Husayni, the 1970-71 Jordan-PLO war of “Black September,” which expelled the PLO from Jordan, the 1985-87 clashes in Jordan, and the permanent, severe constraints on Palestinian political activities in Jordan.

The Hashemite concern about the clear and present danger posed by a potential Palestinian entity reflects the overall Arab attitude – Arab walk, not talk – resulting from the Palestinian track record of treachery, subversion and terrorism in Arab countries. In the mid-1950s, Mahmoud Abbas, Arafat fled Egypt due to their subversion and terrorism. In 1966, they escaped from Syria because of their terrorism. In 1970-71, they were brutally expelled from Jordan (e.g., 10,000 Palestinians killed), following a series of attempts to topple the Hashemite regime.  During 1970-75 they plundered Southern Lebanon, attempting to topple the central government in Beirut, which asked Syria to deploy its military and avert the wrath of the PLO. In 1990, three PLO battalions participated in Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, which was assisted by Palestinian intelligence from within Kuwait. In retaliation, Kuwait expelled almost 300,000 Palestinians following its liberation by the USA. 200,000 Palestinians fled Syria following the dramatic decline in the stature of Assad, whom they supported.  50,000 Palestinians fled Iraq following the downfall of their patron, Saddam Hussein.

Representing the Arab view which does not consider the Palestinian issue a prime positive concern, the January 25, 2017 edition of the prestigious Saudi weekly, Asharq al-Awsat, stated: “Due to the destruction and displacement that has affected the Middle East in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the Palestinian cause is no longer central.  We do not forget how extremists succeeded in exploiting the Palestinian tragedy to serve unscrupulous regimes….”

Contrary to conventional “wisdom,” none of the traumatic developments which ignited the Arab Tsunami in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, etc., is related – directly or indirectly – to the Palestinian issue, which is not the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict (e.g., Egypt and Jordan occupied Gaza, Judea and Samaria during 1949-1967, but did not transfer them to the Palestinians).

Moreover, the adverse impact of the proposed Palestinian state on US interests in the Arab-Tsunami-plagued Middle East, is clearly chronicled by the Palestinian track record since the waves of anti-Jewish and anti-Arab Palestinian terrorism during the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s; their WW2 alliance with Nazi Germany; their post-World War alliance with the rogue Soviet Bloc; their 1970s-1980s training camps for Asian, African, European and Latin American terrorists; their warm ties with the Ayatollahs and North Korea; their close ties with Russia and China, which would upgrade the latter anti-US power-projection in the region (e.g., port facilities in Gaza and land-base rights in a newly-established state). Most importantly, Palestinian hate-education and incitement in K-12, mosques, media and public events reflect its anti-US worldview most authentically, and will be reflected geo-strategically in the Middle East and diplomatically in the UN.

A Palestinian state in the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria would reduce Israel into a 9-15 mile sliver below these mountains, transforming Israel from a unique national security producer/asset for the US tax-payer – extending the strategic hand of the US – into a national security consumer/burden on the US tax-payer, denying the US an effective beachhead in a critical area, economically and militarily.

Should the US be expected to cut off its nose to spite its face?!




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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