A Middle East double-dip is ushered-in by the lynching of Gadhafi; the violent alteration of alliances and regime in Libya; the inherent tribal, ethnic, ideological and religious fragmentation in that oil rich country; the volatile Arab Street from North Africa to the Persian Gulf; the disintegration of nepotism-based Arab regimes; the artificial boundaries of Arab countries, which exacerbates ethnic and sectarian violence; and the 1,400 years absence of Arab democracy and intra-Arab comprehensive peace and compliance with agreements.
The call for Israel to assume additional risks for peace defies Middle East reality. It is a derivative of the “Arab Spring” delusion, fueling Arab radicalism and terrorism.
According to the astute Arab journalist, Elias Harfoush, “[Recent developments in the Middle East are] closer to a civil war than to a popular revolution….Societies that are supposed to constitute nations are dismantling into tribes, sects and conflicting doctrines…. Libya and Yemen represent two examples of the prototype of internal dismantlement that can eliminate the dream of change. The two countries host a resident state of radicalism called Al-Qaeda. The latter represents a danger to the Western interests and to the interests of the neighboring countries….The so-called Arab Spring has its leaves almost wilting…. There goes Tunisia [Jasmin Revolution] with its citizens flooding the shores of the Italian Lampedusa Island in order to seek a European shelter….”
While Western commentators and politicians are captivated by the delusions of the “Arab Internet Revolt” and the “Arab March of Democracy,” the anti-Western Muslim Brotherhood (MB) emerges as a major beneficiary of the Arab Winter, which is toppling anti-MB regimes. Unlike the Khomeini Revolution, the MB is set on a gradual takeover of Egypt and other Arab countries, leveraging the sacrifice by other opposition groups. Focusing on their mission – the global spread of Islam and the defeat of the apostate and the infidel – the Muslim Brotherhood adheres to long-term, patient battles through political and subversive tactics. Iran has recently gained in stature, thawing the frosty relations with Egypt, meddling further in the domestic affairs of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other Gulf States, and securing two bridgeheads in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah).
Western observers tend to ignore the significance of the 1,400 year old monopoly of Islam over the religious, educational, social and political aspects of every Arab country. Such a repressive monopoly guarantees an Islamic victory in every “democratic” process. The 1979 “freeing” of Iran from the autocracy of the Shah, produced the Khomeini Revolution, a radical, oppressive, megalomaniac Islamic regime. The 2002 election in Turkey yielded the less-radical Islamic regime of the Justice and Development Party, headed by Erdogan, who aspires to head the Islamic World and reinstate the Ottoman Empire.
Furthermore, a fundamental incompatibility exists between liberty-driven Western democracy and liberty-devoid Islam. Arab regimes dread freedom of religion, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, free competition, free press, free Internet and free minds. Therefore, since 2003, US attempts to democratize Iraq have been perceived, by the House of Saud and other pro-US Arab regimes, as a lethal threat. Arab regimes hijack the electoral process, advancing their own tyrannical agenda. In 2006, Condoleezza Rice’s insistence upon introducing democracy to Gaza catapulted Hamas terrorists to power. In 1996, Jimmy Carter certified the “electoral” victory of Arafat, who proceeded to launch an unprecedented campaign of terrorism. In 1979, the eagerness to spread democracy led Western leaders to support the Khomeini Revolution. During 1917-1967, a sustained campaign, by the British Empire, to introduce democracy to Arab lands failed decisively.
Against the backdrop of Middle East turmoil, the expected Middle East double-dip, the deepening uncertainty and escalating threat, it is incumbent upon Israel to choose experience over delusion, rejecting the lethal “Risk-for-Peace” and embracing the life saving “Less-Risk for More-Security.”