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A Middle East Double-Dip

A Middle East double-dip is ushered-in by the lynching of Gadhafi; the violent alteration of alliances and regime in Libya; the inherent tribal, ethnic, ideological and religious fragmentation in that oil rich country; the volatile Arab Street from North Africa to the Persian Gulf; the disintegration of nepotism-based Arab regimes; the artificial boundaries of Arab countries, which exacerbates ethnic and sectarian violence; and the 1,400 years absence of Arab democracy and intra-Arab comprehensive peace and compliance with agreements.

The call for Israel to assume additional risks for peace defies Middle East reality. It is a derivative of the “Arab Spring” delusion, fueling Arab radicalism and terrorism.

According to the astute Arab journalist, Elias Harfoush, “[Recent developments in the Middle East are] closer to a civil war than to a popular revolution….Societies that are supposed to constitute nations are dismantling into tribes, sects and conflicting doctrines…. Libya and Yemen represent two examples of the prototype of internal dismantlement that can eliminate the dream of change. The two countries host a resident state of radicalism called Al-Qaeda. The latter represents a danger to the Western interests and to the interests of the neighboring countries….The so-called Arab Spring has its leaves almost wilting…. There goes Tunisia [Jasmin Revolution] with its citizens flooding the shores of the Italian Lampedusa Island in order to seek a European shelter….”

While Western commentators and politicians are captivated by the delusions of the “Arab Internet Revolt” and the “Arab March of Democracy,” the anti-Western Muslim Brotherhood (MB) emerges as a major beneficiary of the Arab Winter, which is toppling anti-MB regimes. Unlike the Khomeini Revolution, the MB is set on a gradual takeover of Egypt and other Arab countries, leveraging the sacrifice by other opposition groups. Focusing on their mission – the global spread of Islam and the defeat of the apostate and the infidel – the Muslim Brotherhood adheres to long-term, patient battles through political and subversive tactics. Iran has recently gained in stature, thawing the frosty relations with Egypt, meddling further in the domestic affairs of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other Gulf States, and securing two bridgeheads in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah).

Western observers tend to ignore the significance of the 1,400 year old monopoly of Islam over the religious, educational, social and political aspects of every Arab country. Such a repressive monopoly guarantees an Islamic victory in every “democratic” process. The 1979 “freeing” of Iran from the autocracy of the Shah, produced the Khomeini Revolution, a radical, oppressive, megalomaniac Islamic regime. The 2002 election in Turkey yielded the less-radical Islamic regime of the Justice and Development Party, headed by Erdogan, who aspires to head the Islamic World and reinstate the Ottoman Empire.

Furthermore, a fundamental incompatibility exists between liberty-driven Western democracy and liberty-devoid Islam. Arab regimes dread freedom of religion, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, free competition, free press, free Internet and free minds. Therefore, since 2003, US attempts to democratize Iraq have been perceived, by the House of Saud and other pro-US Arab regimes, as a lethal threat. Arab regimes hijack the electoral process, advancing their own tyrannical agenda. In 2006, Condoleezza Rice’s insistence upon introducing democracy to Gaza catapulted Hamas terrorists to power. In 1996, Jimmy Carter certified the “electoral” victory of Arafat, who proceeded to launch an unprecedented campaign of terrorism. In 1979, the eagerness to spread democracy led Western leaders to support the Khomeini Revolution. During 1917-1967, a sustained campaign, by the British Empire, to introduce democracy to Arab lands failed decisively.

Against the backdrop of Middle East turmoil, the expected Middle East double-dip, the deepening uncertainty and escalating threat, it is incumbent upon Israel to choose experience over delusion, rejecting the lethal “Risk-for-Peace” and embracing the life saving “Less-Risk for More-Security.”




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Open letter to Prime Minister Bennett ahead of visit to USA

(Hebrew edition in “Israel Hayom,” Israel’s largest circulation daily)

During your first official visit to Washington, DC, you’ll have to choose between two options:

*Blurring your deeply-rooted, assertive Israeli positions on the future of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which would be welcome by the Biden Administration, yielding to short-term political convenience and popularity inside the beltway;

or

*Tenaciously advocating your deeply-rooted, principle-driven positions, which would underscore a profound disagreement with the Biden Administration and the “elite” US media, while granting you and Israel long-term strategic respect, as demonstrated by some of your predecessors.

For example, the late Prime Minister Shamir honed the second option, bluntly introduced his assertive Israeli positions on Judea and Samaria, rebuffed heavy US pressure – including a mudslinging campaign by President Bush and Secretary of State Baker – suffered a popularity setback, but produced unprecedented expansion of US-Israel strategic cooperation. When it comes to facing the intensified threats of rogue regimes and Islamic terrorism, the US prefers principle-driven, reliable, patriotic, pressure-defying partners, irrespective of disagreements on the Palestinian issue.

Assuming that you shall not budge on the historical and national security centrality of Judea and Samaria, it behooves you to highlight the following matters during your meetings with President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Austin and Congressional leaders (especially the members of the Appropriations Committees):

  1. The 1,400-year-old track record of the stormy, unpredictable, violent and anti-“infidel” Middle East, which has yet to experience intra-Arab peaceful-coexistence, along with the 100-year-old Palestinian track record (including the systematic collaboration with anti-US entities, hate-education and anti-Arab and anti-Jewish terrorism) demonstrates that the proposed Palestinian state would be a Mini-Afghanistan or a Mega-Gaza on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria.

It would dominate 80% of Israel’s population and infrastructures in the 9-15-mile sliver between Judea and Samaria and the Mediterranean, which is shorter than the distance between RFK Stadium and the Kennedy Center.

Thus, a Palestinian state would pose a clear and present existential threat to Israel; and therefore, Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria is a prerequisite for its survival.

  1. The proposed Palestinian state would undermine US interests, as concluded from the Palestinian intra-Arab track record, which has transformed the Palestinians into a role-model of intra-Arab subversion, terrorism and ingratitude. Arabs are aware that a Palestinian state would add fuel to the Middle East fire, teaming up with their enemies (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs, the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s Erdogan) and providing a strategic foothold to Russia and China. Consequently, Arabs shower Palestinians with favorable talk, but with cold and negative walk.

Hence, during the October, 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty ceremony, Jordan’s military leaders asserted to their Israeli colleagues that a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the River, and lead, subsequently, to the toppling of all pro-US Arab Peninsula regimes.

  1. There is no foundation for the contention that Israel’s retreat from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria – which are the cradle of Jewish history, religion and culture – is required in order to sustain Israel’s Jewish majority. In reality, there is unprecedented Jewish demographic momentum, while Arab demography – throughout the Middle East – has Westernized dramatically. The Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel benefits from a robust tailwind of fertility and migration.
  2. Israel’s control of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria and the Golan Heights, bolsters its posture of deterrence, which has daunted rogue regimes, reduced regional instability, enhanced the national security of all pro-US Arab regimes, and has advanced Israel’s role as a unique force-multiplier for the US. An Israeli retreat from Judea and Samaria would transform Israel from a strategic asset – to a strategic liability – for the US.
  3. As the US reduces its military presence in the Middle East – which is a global epicenter of oil production, global trade (Asia-Africa), international Islamic terrorism and proliferation of non-conventional military technologies – Israel’s posture of deterrence becomes increasingly critical for the pro-US Arab countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan), who consider Israel to be the most reliable “life insurance agent” in the region.

Contrary to NATO, South Korea and Japan, Israel’s defense does not require the presence of US troops on its soil.

  1. Sustaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge is a mutual interest for the US and Israel, which serves as the most cost-effective battle-tested laboratory for the US defense industries and armed forces. Thus, Israel’s use of hundreds of US military systems has yielded thousands of lessons (operation, maintenance and repairs), which have been integrated, by the US manufacturers, into the next generation of the military systems, saving the US many years of research and development, increasing US exports and expanding the US employment base – a mega billion dollar bonanza for the US. At the same time, the US armed forces have benefitted from Israel’s military intelligence and battle experience, as well as joint training maneuvers with Israel’s defense forces, which has improved the US formulation of battle tactics.

Prime Minister Bennett, your visit to Washington, is an opportunity to demonstrate your adherence to your deeply-rooted strong Israeli positions, rejecting the ill-advised appeals and temptations to sacrifice Israel’s national security on the altar of convenience and popularity.

Yours truly,

Yoram Ettinger, expert on US-Israel relations and Middle East affairs

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