The documented Jewish-Arab demographic about-face

Yoram Ettinger www.TheEttingerReport.com, March 09, 2018

 
 
1.   The number of Arabs in Judea & Samaria (J & S) is 1.85mn; not 3mn claimed by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). The number of Arabs in the pre-1967 lines: 1.85mn. The number of Jews: 7mn (including over 300,000 Jews according to the law-of-return, but not according to the Rabbinate).
 
2.    The number of Arabs in Gaza is 1.5mn, not 1.9mn.
 
3.   Over 400,000 overseas residents – away for more than a year and mostly from J & S – are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to internationally accepted standards, which stipulate de-facto count. The number grows through births.
 
4.   330,000 Jerusalem Arabs, possessing Israeli ID cards, are doubly counted: as Israeli Arabs by Israel and as West Bank Arabs by the PA. The number grows through births.
 
5.   Over 100,000 Palestinians, who married Israeli Arabs, received Israeli citizenship and are doubly counted: by Israel and the PA. The number grows through births.
 
6.   A 65.5% Jewish majority in the combined area of J & S and pre-1967 Israel, benefitting from a fertility and migration tailwind. In 1900 and 1947 it was a 9% and 39% Jewish minority, respectively.
 
7.   While the PCBS claims zero net-migration, there has been a documented net annual Arab emigration from J & S since 1950, trending upward since 2000 – 20,000 annually in recent years. Jewish emigration (over a year abroad) reduced from 14,200 in 1990 to 8,200 in 2015, while the population almost doubled (from 4.5mn to 8.85mn). Net-Jewish-immigration (Aliyah) persists annually (25,000-30’000 in recent years).
 
8.   A World Bank September, 2006 survey of the PA education system: 32% “inflated” number of Arab births in J & S.
 
9.   PCBS’ under-reporting of deaths: the 2007 population census included J & S Arabs born in 1845…. The PCBS reported 1,900 deaths in 2009, while claiming 1.391 casualties during the 2008-2009 Operation Cast Lead….
 
10.    In contrast to conventional “wisdom,” there has been a surge of annual Jewish births (1995 – 80,400, 69% of total births; 2017– 140,000, 76.5% of total births), while ultra-orthodox fertility declining, and the secular Jewish fertility increasing. The number of Israeli Arab births increased, moderately, from 36,000, in 1995, to 43,000, in 2017. The Jewish-Arab fertility gap, which was 6 births per woman in 1969 was closed in 2015 (3.13 births), and in 2016 featured the first ever Jewish edge - 3.16:311 (http://bit.ly/2lqm3nq) .

11.    In 2000, the Israeli Arab population grew by 0.24% (as a result of the Arab fertility surge until the 1970s), but just 0.03% in 2017, and trending downward.
 
12.    The Westernization of Muslim fertility rates reflects the enhanced position of women in Arab societies (completing high school, pursuing academic degrees and later/shorter reproductive period), expanded use of contraceptives and urbanization. For instance, in Judea & Samaria – 5 births per Arab woman in 2000, but 3.3 in 2017, Iran – 2, Saudi Arabia – 2.1, Egypt– 3.5, Jordan – 3.2. 

13.    The median-age of J & S Arabs was 17 in the year 2000; it is 21 in 2017.
 
14.    In contrast to conventional “wisdom,” there is no Arab demographic time-bomb threatening the Jewish State; there is an unprecedented, robust Jewish demographic tailwind.