The Jewish-Arab Demographic Bottom Line

The American-Israel Demographic Research Group, December 23, 2010

1. AIDRG documents a 1.25MN (43%) inflation in the number of Arabs in Gaza, Judea & Samaria (2.85MN, not 4.10MN) and a 66% inflation in the number of Arabs in Judea & Samaria alone (1.6MN, not 2.5MN).  The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) census includes some 400,000 overseas residents, 250,000 Jerusalem Arabs who are also counted as Israeli Arabs, ignores about 200,000 emigrants (since 1997), etc.  The World Bank documents a 32% gap between the PCBS and the Palestinian Ministry of Education documented–number of Arab births.


2. A 66% Jewish majority on 98.5% of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean (without Gaza).  A 60% Jewish majority west of the Jordan River compared with a 33% and an 8% minority in 1947 and 1900 respectively.


3. “Green Line” Arab fertility rate has declined 20 years faster than projected. J&S Arab fertility has decreased to 3.2 births per woman.


4. A 50% rise in annual Israeli Jewish births during 1995-2009 (from 80,400 to 121,000), while the number of annual Arab births stabilized (39,000).  The secular Jewish sector plays a key role. Arab-Jewish gap of fertility (births per woman) reduced from 6 in 1969 to 0.6 in 2009!


5.  Arab-Jewish fertility rates have converged in Jerusalem – 3.9 births per woman – for the first time since 1948.


6. Net annual emigration of over 10,000 has characterized Judea & Samaria (mostly) and Gaza Arabs since 1950: 10,000 in 2004, 16,000 in 2005, 25,000 in 2006 and 2007, 28,000 in 2008 and 29,000 in 2009. 


7. Israel has benefited from annual Aliya since 1882.  Since 1948, Israel’s demographers have projected no waves of Aliya (immigration).


8. Ben Gurion was urged by Israel’s demographers to delay declaration of independence, lest the 600,000 Jews of 1948 become a minority by 1967!


9.  There is a demographic problem, but it is not lethal. The demographic trend is Jewish. Anyone claiming that Israel must concede geography, in order to secure demography is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.